NFL Analysis
8/6/24
11 min read
Ranking NFL's Most Likely Worst-To-First Teams In 2024
Almost every year in the NFL, a team that finished last in the division the previous season wins it the next year. That jump has happened in 19 of the past 21 seasons, including the Houston Texans going from 3-13-1 in 2022 to 10-7 with an AFC South title in 2023.
The Texans turned out to be a pretty good team in a division that was just ok. That’s part of the leap; everything has to break in the right way.
As we rank the likelihood of eight teams going from worst to first, it is not a straight ranking of team quality. We’re considering a number of factors, including how good a team could be and the path to a division title.
Teams Likely To Go From Worst to First
8. Arizona Cardinals 
The Arizona Cardinals could be frisky and fun in 2024. They underperformed their point differential by 1.4 wins, which would suggest an improvement in the upcoming season.
There’s a lot to like about the offense, which could build upon its top-10 efficiency during the second half of the season once Kyler Murray returned to the lineup. The defensive talent still isn’t there, though it should be better than the 32nd ranking in DVOA after bringing in some competent veterans in free agency.
Still, the path to a division title is tough. The Cardinals would have to leap the Rams and 49ers to win the NFC West. Seattle could also be quite good this season. So, while the Cardinals should improve, the best-case scenario also involves worst-case scenarios for two of the league's best teams.
In part from having four games against those two teams and two more against the Seahawks, Arizona is projected to have the sixth-toughest schedule in the league by DVOA. I would be against the Cardinals finishing with the fewest wins among the teams on the list, but the path to a division title in undoubtedly the trickiest.
7. Los Angeles Chargers 
Playing in a division with the Kansas City Chiefs makes it quite difficult to get first place in the division. Last year could have been the year to do it when the Kansas City offense spent most of the season trying to figure out what did and didn’t work. But the Los Angeles Chargers couldn’t take advantage, winning just five games and finishing 2.1 wins under expectation.
Typically, that type of underperformance signifies a bump in wins the following season, but the Chargers have been immune to regression regardless of the coaching staff. The 2015 and 2016 Chargers each finished two or more wins under their point differential. The 2017 team improved to nine wins, but that was still underperforming their 10.4 expected wins.
There’s also a smaller margin for error, especially on offense without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Even if those receivers came with injury concerns, at least they were the starters, and the depth was behind them.
The Chargers are starting with Ladd McConkey, Joshua Palmer, and Quentin Johnston this season. Justin Herbert is already hurt with plantar fasciitis, which could linger throughout the season.
The Chargers' long-term outlook should be much better under Jim Harbaugh, but that does not mean there will be an immediate turnaround this season.
6. Chicago Bears 
It won’t be a surprise if the Chicago Bears stay in the playoff race throughout the season. After acquiring Montez Sweat at last year's trade deadline, this team had one of the league's best defenses, and most of the defensive talent is still in place. This offseason, Chicago added three major pieces to the offense: Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze.
There are some concerns in those areas, though. The Bears’ defensive improvement came mostly from forcing turnovers, which is not something that historically carries over from year to year. The pressure rate improved with Sweat, but the Bears only ranked 23rd in pressure rate from Week 10 on, and there weren’t significant additions made in the offseason.
While we have seen rookie quarterbacks play well immediately, it’s hard to expect that. Penciling in a Stroud-like finish for Williams is likely setting expectations a bit high, even for a player marked as the top overall pick for two years.
The Bears would also need to leapfrog two divisional rivals expected to be among the best in the conference. Detroit’s win total sits at 10.5, while Green Bay is at 9.5. Chicago is still high at 8.5, but having the Lions and Packers fall under expectations while the Bears exceed theirs features many moving pieces for Chicago to end up atop the NFC North this season.
5. Washington Commanders 
The Washington Commanders have arguably a weaker case than Chicago, but the two teams expected to be at the top of the NFC East are more fragile. The Cowboys have stagnated without adding much this offseason while contract disputes loom. The Eagles hired two new coordinators and are coming off a second-half collapse, which highlighted some of the roster's weaknesses.
There is some hope an offense led by Jayden Daniels throwing to Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson could be much better than the unit that ranked 25th in EPA per play last season. Daniels is willing to throw down the field and outside the numbers, which could mesh well with the receiving duo. Washington could lead into a quarterback run game that sets a higher floor than Sam Howell's sack-heavy tendencies of last season.
The Commanders could also jump to competency on defense under Dan Quinn, as a number of veterans were brought in on that side of the ball.
Washington also gets the fourth-easiest schedule by DVOA.
4. New England Patriots 
The New England Patriots are in a similar situation to some of the teams we’ve already mentioned, with two teams in the division expected to be among the best in the conference.
Like Washington, New England’s divisional rivals have some concerns that could make them vulnerable. Buffalo is going through a transition on offense, while Miami has already seen injuries with the pass rush and had issues on offense at the end of last season.
The Patriots also have a trump card over some of the other teams in the form of a potential top-tier unit with their defense. New England finished fourth in EPA per play on defense last season while dealing with a number of injuries, namely missing Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez for most of the season.
Judon, currently looking for a new contract, is one of the league’s most productive pass rushers, recording 28 sacks in his first two years with the Patriots before his injury-shortened 2023. Gonzalez was developing as a top corner in his rookie season before he was lost for the year.
Sure, Bill Belichick is gone, but Jerod Mayo was a big part of that defensive program and could still oversee a unit with top-10 potential when fully healthy.
If the Patriots' defense can hold up, the offense could be just average, and the team could still win some games. Jacoby Brissett has shown the ability to keep an offense afloat, and if Drake Maye shows enough to get on the field early, there could be some upside to the New England offense as well.
This is still a thin line for winning the division, but we’ve seen teams with a solid offense led by a rookie passer and a top-tier defense make a run before.
3. Carolina Panthers 
Some of the other teams on this list might be decent, but the path to the division is blocked. The Carolina Panthers are here because there isn’t much standing in the way of an NFC South title.
The Buccaneers won the division and kept most of the roster together, but they lost their offensive coordinator to the Panthers and ranked only 18th in DVOA last season. The Saints are going to be the Saints. They might not be bad, but they won’t be great. The Falcons are the favorite, but that’s placing a lot of hope on the offensive skill players, a 36-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles tear, and a defense that lacks top-end talent.
There is hope that Dave Canales and some of the offensive additions can help spark a Year 2 leap for Bryce Young. Last season, Young was the least efficient quarterback in the league but was also saddled with a poor supporting cast and an offensive system that just didn’t work.
The Panthers get the league’s easiest schedule by DVOA, so if the offense does make an improvement or the defense shines under Ejiro Evero, it might not be a stretch to see this team steal a few games throughout the year and win an underwhelming division.
2. Tennessee Titans 
The Tennessee Titans went for it this offseason. The Titans traded for L’Jarius Sneed and signed Chidobe Awuizie to rework their outside corners. They also signed Quandre Diggs as a late addition to the back end of the secondary to pair with Amani Hooker and Elijah Molden. That should also allow Jamal Adams, another free agent signing, to play more in the box.
When we see a big talent infusion from free agency, especially on defense, it tends to boost the team in the first year. It’s not always the best long-term team-building strategy, but that first year is better — think of the 2016 Giants.
The Titans ranked 26th in EPA per play on defense last season, but that was because they ranked 30th against the pass. Tennessee was seventh in EPA per play against the run, and most of the front has returned.
If the Titans can improve their defense to an average level and their offense improves in Year 2 for Will Levis under new coach Brian Callahan, this could be a more well-rounded team that steals some games.
Tennessee, of course, would still have to leap the Houston Texans, but should something go wrong in Houston, the Titans would have one of the clearer paths to a division among the teams on this list.
1. Cincinnati Bengals 
The Cincinnati Bengals are first because they are capable of being one of the league’s best at full strength.
The biggest question is how close to full strength they are currently. Joe Burrow is still dealing with the wrist injury that ended his 2023 season early, and the offense was not playing that well when Burrow was on the field. The Jake Browning version of the offense was better by EPA per play, and the Bengals appear to be leaning into some of those tendencies to make life easier on Burrow this season.
If healthy, the offense could be one of the league’s most explosive in what is likely to be the last ride of the Burrow-Ja’Marr Chase-Tee Higgins trio.
Defensively, Cincinnati continued to add some pieces and brought back some veterans. Last year’s plan to go younger, especially in the secondary, did not work as hoped.
Still, there is a ton of upside for a Bengals team that was expected to be one of the best in the league last season before things fell apart. The belief is still there for 2024. At their best, the Bengals can potentially hang with the Ravens at the top of the division, which leaves them as the only team on this list that can say that.
