Analysis

9/9/23

11 min read

Matthew Hill's 2023 NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Matthew Hill

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Week 1 of the NFL season is here, and it is ready to blow up everything we thought we knew about the coming season.

Yes, we have preseason snap rates, depth charts, soundbites, new reports and last season’s data, but the reality is this week is certain to be filled with surprises and outright shocking moments.

This is part of what makes Week 1 so compelling. Opening week is clouded in uncertainty. Even Las Vegas sportsbooks reflect this — 12 of 16 games have point totals landing between 41-47 points, with 10 settling in between 43-46 points.

With no data to lean into and few game totals that stand apart, Week 1 rewards the bold and those willing to have strong takes on a player.

My complete Week 1 rankings include highlights of players I have significantly above or below consensus, according to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). As mentioned above, Week 1 rewards the bold, and we'll highlight and discuss in more depth my bold takes, the players we have the strongest opinion about, who we will be investing heavily in DFS and who we hope will help reward us with a strong opening week.

Rankings will be updated throughout the week as new information comes in, including adding additional player blubs.

Week 1 Fantasy Rankings

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa have week-winning ceilings in what is expected to be one of the week’s highest-scoring affairs (51-point total). When the two teams met in December, Herbert threw for 367 yards, attempting 51 passes. Expect a similar volume for the Los Angeles Chargers' passing attack, with the Miami Dolphins also needing to rely on their passing game to keep pace. Chargers and Dolphins stacks will understandably be popular in Week 1 DFS.

Trevor Lawrence should take advantage of a rebuilding Indianapolis Colts team featuring a rookie quarterback making his first start. There is fear the Jacksonville Jaguars jump out to a lead and rely on their ground game in the second half. Still, it would not be surprising to see Lawrence continue to be featured, even with a large lead, as the new-look Jacksonville offense works on building its identity.

Like Lawrence, there is concern the Minnesota Vikings jump out to an early lead against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, limiting Kirk Cousins’ attempts. Cousins should be viewed as a low-end QB1 at home in an offense that should lean heavily on its passing game all season.

Sam Howell might not possess high-end QB1 upside. Still, the combination of a great matchup, sneaky rushing ability and bargain basement price tag ($4,900 on DraftKings) makes him an intriguing, low-cost option, especially paired with Jahan Dotson ($5,000).

Running Backs 

Raheem Mostert checked in at RB20 in my initial rankings as the Dolphins' clear leadback in a projected shootout. Mostert’s early ranking is fluid: He could rise into low-end RB1 territory or slide back a couple of spots depending on De’Von Achane’s availability. If Achane is severely limited, Mostert becomes a must-play.

Goal-line opportunities should be few and far between for Rachaad White, but with Tampa Bay expected to play from behind early, White could find himself racking up receptions. As the clear every-down back, it would not surprise me to see White benefit from multiple checkdowns, giving him a high PPR floor.

Deon Jackson should pace the Colts in backfield touches with Evan Hull involved enough to cap Jackson’s ceiling in a tough matchup. Jackson is cheap in DFS and readily available for those needing a flex option in seasonal, but you are probably looking elsewhere considering Jackson and Hull’s limited upside.

J.K. Dobbins is set up to smash as the lead back for a Baltimore Ravens team favored by 9.5 points at home over Houston. Dobbins offers little as a receiver and has never exceeded 17 touches in a game, but 100 total yards and a score seem well within his range of outcomes.

Even conceding touches to A.J. Dillon, Aaron Jones is a low-end RB1 this week. Christian Watson is out and Romeo Doubs is highly questionable. The Green Bay Packers are left with a receiving room filled with unproven options, which means Green Bay could deploy a heavy dose of Jones, especially as a receiver, making him a high-floor option in PPR.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen is set up for a massive Week 1. He is healthy, the conditions are perfect for a shootout and Quentin Johnston is expected to need time to become fully integrated into the Chargers' offense.

Reports have been nothing but positive for Calvin Ridley. Ridley reportedly had a dominant camp, has shown an instant rapport with Lawrence and should be heavily involved in his first game as a Jaguar.

With Terry McLaurin no longer questionable for Sunday, fellow Washington wideout Jahan Dotson slides down several spots in the rankings. Even though the game between the Washington Commanders and the Arizona Cardinals features the lowest implied total of the week (38 points), Dotson could see enough volume to put up solid WR2 numbers with the potential for more if he finds the end zone.

The Denver Broncos' targets should be heavily consolidated between Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims. In his last four games against the Las Vegas Raiders, Sutton has a combined line of 22/259/2. Mims has flashed in his first training camp and should be considered “good chalk” as a talented rookie set to see a huge snap share and is priced at the minimum ($3,000).

Nico Collins seems to have settled into the WR1 chair for the Houston Texans, having been targeted on six of C.J. Stroud’s 20 passes this preseason. Collins has a tough matchup on the road against Baltimore. Still, with Houston expected to trail early and the Ravens being relatively vulnerable through the air, Collins could see enough volume to be a quality Week 1 flex option.

With the Packers and Panthers receiving corps in shambles, Jonathan Mingo ($3,200) and Jayden Reed ($3,000) join Marvin Mims Jr. as low-cost, rookie wide receivers who are expected to see a massive snap share in their first start.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and George Kittle are each ranked inside my top five tight ends, and each one enters the week questionable at best. To put it simply, if they play, they’re in your lineup. The reality is my tight end rankings are bound to undergo massive changes during the week.

Kelce sat, Kittle still is uncertain, and now Darren Waller looks questionable for Sunday night. Be ready for a late swap if you are relying on any of those options, which means potentially needing to save a roster spot for Daniel Bellinger in case you need a Sunday night Waller replacement.

You never know when it will be a “Taysom Hill week.” That said, with Alvin Kamara suspended and Kendre Miller looking highly questionable, red zone touches could be in Hill’s Week 1 future. I like Hill’s chances of being involved enough to rank him as a low-end TE1 or high-end TE2.

Hayden Hurst only being targeted on two of Bryce Young’s 31 preseason dropbacks is somewhat concerning, but Hurst running a route on 26 of 31 attempts offers hope the rookie quarterback will rely on his veteran tight end. Hurst is a great value at ($3,000 on DraftKings) for those looking to pay down at the position.

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Matthew Hill

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Writing and providing draft and in-season rankings since 2014, Matthew Hill was chosen FantasyPro's “Most Accurate Expert” for 2018. In addition to his 2018 first place in-season accuracy finish, Matthew’s draft rankings are among the industry's most accurate, finishing in the top 12 for 2019 to 2021.