NFL Analysis
10/8/24
6 min read
Kansas City Chiefs Remain AFC Favorite Despite Injuries to Star Offensive Players
The Kansas City Chiefs look immortal yet again despite all of their injuries.
After a 26-13 win against the New Orleans Saints, the Chiefs remain undefeated with a perfect 5-0 record. They're one of just two remaining undefeated teams, with the Minnesota Vikings also at 5-0 in the NFC after a statement win against the New York Jets in London.
It doesn't seem to matter what gets thrown at Andy Reid and his team. The Chiefs continue to assert their AFC dominance, and it doesn't look like it's slowing down any time soon.
Mounting Injuries
Before diving into what makes the Chiefs so dominant this season, it's worth highlighting the key injuries that the team is dealing with.
Multiple top playmakers are out, most notably and recently, Rashee Rice. The second-year receiver from SMU was off to a red-hot start before a knee injury against the Raiders likely ended his season.
Rice's absence is tough enough, but the Chiefs have also been without free agent veteran Hollywood Brown, who suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery in the preseason. He will miss the entire regular season, but he has an outside chance at playing in the postseason.
There's also concern about when star RB Isiah Pacheco will return. The initial expectation was that he would miss six to eight weeks with a fractured right fibula, but Reid implied that it could be a season-ending injury.
Even the defense is without one of its top pass rushers, Charles Omenihu, who is on the PUP list as he continues to recover from a torn ACL.
Although the offense is dealing with the majority of the team's most significant injuries, it hasn't stopped scoring points.
How Are You Still Alive?
This many injuries would have derailed plenty of offenses around the NFL. But those other teams don't have Patrick Mahomes.
The box score stats don't look great for Mahomes. He's thrown for six touchdowns and six interceptions, which puts him on pace to shatter his previous career-high of 14 interceptions in a season.
Mahomes isn't playing like the gunslinger, taking consistent deep shots like he did earlier in his career. Instead, he's taking a more conservative approach and relying on accuracy over big-play potential.
Through five games, Mahomes is posting a career-high 69.4 completion percentage. His average depth of target in Week 5 was only 4.4 yards, but he was finding his open receivers and letting them make plays in space, generating 8.4 total expected points added (h/t RBSDM).
Reid and Mahomes have continued to adapt the offense based on their offensive personnel. This year, the passing game is trying to stay relentlessly efficient on short passes. Mahomes has completed 83.5 percent of passes behind the line of scrimmage or less than 10 yards downfield, averaging 6.0 yards per pass attempt with three touchdowns and zero touchdowns.
On 34 pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage, the only incompletion was a drop.
Monday night's passing chart shows just how much the Chiefs have to rely on the quick passing game without so many key playmakers.
The Chiefs must rely on familiar faces and an exciting rookie to move the ball right now. Travis Kelce has reemerged in the last two games as a top target for Mahomes after a quiet start to the season. He's been targeted 19 times during the last two games, catching 16 of them for 159 yards.
Even veteran WR JuJu Smith-Schuster played a massive role in Kansas City's offense. After catching just two passes on the year, the Chiefs schemed him open to the tune of seven catches for 130 yards. It was the most receiving yards that he's had in a regular season game since 2018.
Rookie speedster Xavier Worthy looks like the team's biggest remaining X-factor with his explosiveness and top-end play speed. Although the Chiefs are still trying to figure out how to get him involved as a receiver besides just deep shots, he's becoming a nice extension of the run game on gadget plays that help him find the end zone.
Don't blink, you might miss it 💨 @XavierWorthy pic.twitter.com/2PuLyk4aCy
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 8, 2024
However, with Worthy listed at 165 pounds, the Chiefs must be careful with how much of a workload they give their first-round pick. Especially because of the other injuries the offense is dealing with.
Instead, the passing game will likely continue to involve Mahomes getting the ball out quickly to keep dinking and dunking down the field. It's not the flashiest style of play, but it's getting the job done.
The Chiefs' offense is still ranked 11th by DVOA, and it's in the top half of the league with 23.6 points scored per game.
A Rushing Problem
The passing game is figuring out its identity, but the Chiefs still need to figure out what works in the running game without Pacheco.
So far, the Chiefs' offensive line is getting the job done, but the running backs are struggling to make the most of their opportunities. According to TruMedia, the Chiefs rank ninth in rushing yards before contact but 31st in yards after contact.
Carson Steele was supposed to be a breakout star, but fumbling issues have kept him off of the field. With three fumbles on 33 carries, he has the highest fumble rate for a running back with at least 20 carries since 2000.
Steele could fix his fumble issues as the season rolls on, but it's having a real impact on his ability to stay on the field.
Instead, the Chiefs are turning to veteran RB Kareem Hunt, who was signed just a few weeks ago, to save their run game. He's been leaned on heavily during the last two games, carrying the ball 41 times for 171 yards and a touchdown.
That workload may not be sustainable for a 29-year-old running back as the season rolls on. The good news is that reinforcements should be on their way, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire nearing a return after missing the start of the season.
There isn't a star running back on the roster without Pacheco, but a committee approach with Hunt, CEH, Samaje Perine, and Steele should help the Chiefs find more of a rushing identity as the season continues.
