NFL Analysis
9/30/24
6 min read
Who Will Step Up To Replace Rashee Rice in Kansas City Chiefs Offense?
The Kansas City Chiefs have to discover their offensive identity all over again.
Despite a 17-10 win against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Chiefs are leaving the West Coast with more questions than answers. Early in the game, star WR Rashee Rice was carted off the field after he attempted to make a play following a Patrick Mahomes interception.
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Rice is feared to have suffered a torn ACL. Head coach Andy Reid appeared to know that it was likely a season-ending injury when he was asked about Rice's status at halftime.
Rice was Kansas City's top offensive weapon this season, catching 24 passes for 288 yards and two scores in the first three games. His 29 targets are still the most on the Chiefs despite not seeing a single target before his Week 4 injury.
The injury leaves a massive hole in the Chiefs' offense, one that will need to be filled by multiple players in order to keep the Chiefs offense moving.
Kansas City Needs An Unsung Hero
The Chiefs won't suddenly find an established No. 1 receiver on their roster to replace Rice. However, they can spread out his target share to other pass catchers to recreate him in the aggregate.
Travis Kelce returned to being Mahomes' primary target once Rice went down. The 34-year-old tight end led all Chiefs players with nine targets, catching seven of them for 89 yards and two first downs.
There had been questions about whether or not Kelce could still play at a high level this season or if age was finally catching up with him. That didn't seem to be an issue on Sunday, as he generated 42 yards after the catch with a diverse route tree.
Kelce nearly doubled his targets in one game after being thrown at just 12 times in the first three games. Rice had become Mahomes' newest safety blanket, but it looks like Kelce has replaced that role.
It shouldn't be surprising that Kelce will see a bigger workload going forward. The bigger question is what the Chiefs can get out of rookie WR Xavier Worthy.
A first-round pick out of Texas, Worthy made history in the pre-draft process with a 40-yard dash time of 4.21 seconds, the fastest ever recorded at the NFL Scouting Combine. However, at just 165 pounds, there were questions about how Worthy would handle the physical nature of the NFL game.
That hasn't been a huge issue, at least through his first four games. He's only caught nine passes on 15 targets but racked up 154 yards and two scores while carrying the ball five times for 39 yards and another touchdown.
According to Next Gen Stats, Worthy creates 3.8 yards of separation on average when targeted. Even when he doesn't create much separation, his top-end play speed helps him get behind defenses to generate explosive plays.
Even the slightest hesitation against Xavier Worthy can get a DB cooked. pic.twitter.com/hVGyHaVTBr
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) September 30, 2024
The bigger question around Worthy is whether or not his body can withstand an increased role as a primary option in Kansas City's offense. There are very few 165-pound receivers who have succeeded at the NFL level, and he'll have to rely on more than just top-end speed to handle an uptick in targets.
Some other unsung heroes, like Noah Gray and Justin Watson, also need to step up. While Gray has never been on Kelce's level, he has made plays in the past. He's caught more than 75 percent of his targets in his career, hauling in 71 passes for 730 yards and four touchdowns.
More 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) could be on the menu for Kansas City to get Kelce and Gray on the field. The Chiefs attempted a season-high 10 passes out of 12 personnel in Week 4, compared to 12 combined attempts the previous two weeks, according to TruMedia.
Watson will also need to take on a larger workload. He only had 42 catches for 775 yards and seven touchdowns in the last two seasons, but he still had some kind of role in the Chiefs offense. That role has diminished significantly in 2024, with only eight targets in the first four games. Still, someone needs to step onto the field at receiver besides Worthy, and Watson is the next man up.
Gray and Watson aren't exactly inspiring options in the passing game, but they'll need to have some kind of role in order to take some of the pressure off of an aging tight end in Kelce and a rookie speedster in Worthy.
Run the Dang Ball
For anything else to work on offense, the Chiefs need to figure out their run game.
It will still be some time before starting RB Isiah Pacheco returns. The 25-year-old is likely at least a month away from being fully healthy after suffering a broken fibula two weeks ago.
Without Pacheco, the Chiefs have struggled running the ball. They've averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry in both games without their starting running back, having to lean on undrafted rookie Carson Steele and aging veterans Samaje Perine and Kareem Hunt.
Hunt actually showed the most promise in Week 4. He saw an increased workload after Steele fumbled early in the game, leading to the rookie taking a backseat for the rest of the game. Hunt finished with 14 carries for 69 yards, averaging 4.9 yards per rushing attempt.
The good news is that reinforcements are on their way. Former first-round RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected to be activated this week after missing the first four games on the NFI list. Although he's coming off the worst year of his career with just 3.2 yards per carry, his experience in the offense in the last four seasons could give him a chance to see some playing time right away.
A stronger running game will also help Mahomes air it out. According to TruMedia, Mahomes has a passer rating of 87.5 this season on play-action passes. It was just as bad last season when the Chiefs had the 17th-ranked rushing offense by DVOA, with Mahomes posting an 87.3 passer rating on play-action.
From 2020 through 2022, Mahomes had posted a passer rating of at least 105.0 when faking the run in each season.
An established run game is vital to being effective on play-action passes.
With Rice likely out for the season, the Chiefs need the run game and play-action pass to be even more effective in helping them prep for another Super Bowl run this season.
