NFL Analysis
9/18/24
3 min read
Jets' Rookie Braelon Allen Is Poised for Breakout Performance
The New York Jets might have their breakout star for the 2024 season in rookie RB Braelon Allen.
After just garbage-time two touches in his NFL debut, Allen played a key role in the Jets Week 2 win against the Tennessee Titans. He carried the ball seven times for 33 yards and a touchdown while catching two passes for 23 yards and another score.
Allen could have an even bigger role on Thursday night against the New England Patriots. Starting RB Breece Hall has spent the week on the injury report with a quad injury. Although he's been a full participant in practice, the short turnaround for Thursday Night Football could limit his role in Week 3.
After such promising flashes last week, this could be another big opportunity for Allen to show the rest of the league what he can do.
What Makes Allen a Promising Back?
At 235 pounds, Allen is the definition of a power back.
That has been the case since his days with the Wisconsin Badgers. Allen was an All-Big Ten selection in three straight college seasons, rushing for 3,494 yards and 35 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 yards per carry in 35 career games.
The college tape in 2021 and 2022 showed a decisive downhill runner with enough build-up speed to generate explosive plays on the ground. His imposing frame also allowed him to break tackle, although there were concerns in the pre-draft process about his burst and elusiveness to evade ball carriers.
— SportingVids (@VidsSporting) November 20, 2021
Allen is looking like the same kind of running back in a limited sample size at the NFL level. According to TruMedia, Allen averages just 0.5 yards a carry before contact but 4.63 yards after contact on his eight rushing attempts.
That 235-pound frame makes it easy for Allen to brush off arm-tackle attempts, which helped him become the youngest player (20 years old) to score a touchdown in the NFL since 1930. You can see in the clip below that Allen is willing to lower his pads to finish his runs through contact.
All-22 of Braelon Allen's opportunities against the Titans in week 2.
— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) September 18, 2024
He rushed 7 times for 33 yards and one touchdown. He rushed for 20 yards on the touchdown. His next longest yard was for 6 yards.
The Titans' defense did a good job staying home on a lot of his attempts. But… pic.twitter.com/gqMoZJGZT2
It's worth reiterating that this is a very small sample size. However, there's a good chance that the rookie out of Wisconsin will start to see an uptick in his workload after such a strong Week 2 performance.
The Patriots present an Interesting matchup
The Jets shouldn't be shy about running the ball on Thursday, regardless of Hall's status.
Traditional stats suggest that the Patriots have an elite run defense. Through two weeks, they've allowed just 116 rushing yards, the second-lowest mark in the NFL.
However, advanced metrics aren't sold on New England's run defense. Pro Football Focus has graded the Patriots as the 16th-best run defense, while FTN Fantasy has them at 19th in defensive DVOA against the run.
The Patriots' defense also lost a key starter for the season after LB Ja'Whaun Bentley suffered a torn pec. That, combined with Christian Barmore's absence on the defensive line, leaves the Patriots thin up front.
Look for the Jets to test New England's defense without Bentley by trying to establish the run early and often.
