NFL Analysis
2/9/25
6 min read
Is Kansas City Chiefs' Dynasty Over after Brutal Super Bowl LIX Loss?
There is no shame in losing a Super Bowl. The Seahawks blew out Peyton Manning and the Broncos before they got back to the Super Bowl a few years later. Tom Brady lost twice, both times to inferior opponents. It happens.
And it happened to the Kansas City Chiefs for the second time in five seasons.
The Chiefs were unable to complete the three-peat after being dismantled by the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 59. The final score does not indicate how much of a blowout this contest was. Once halftime hit, there was zero doubt that the Eagles were going to emerge victorious. However, the result was still shocking nonetheless, as the Chiefs entered the game as 1.5-point favorites after a 15-2 regular season and another great postseason run.
The biggest surprise was the Chiefs' inability to move the ball offensively. Kansas City had just one first down in the first half. Heck, gaining a single yard felt like an impossible task. Those days happen in the NFL. Just not to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.
According to TruMedia, the Chiefs' 15 percent offensive success rate and -1.21 EPA per dropback in the first half were both the lowest in any game since Mahomes became the starter in 2018.
Chiefs' Worst 1st Halves By Success Rate Since 2018
We are used to them playing downhill and picking up third and fourth downs with ease — that wasn’t the case this time around. The Eagles had an answer for everything that Reid and Mahomes threw at them.
So, where do the Chiefs go from here? Like past dynasties, they couldn't complete the three-peat. They looked gassed, and the difference in energy from one sideline to the other was stark. This franchise has played in seven straight AFC Championship Games, which seemed to have taken a big toll on them.
It's easy to assume that the Chiefs will be back next year, especially considering they’ve made the final game in five of the last seven seasons. But dynasties end quickly.
The 1990 Cowboys won three of four Super Bowls from 1992-1995 but have not made the NFC Championship Game since. Tom Brady went 10 years between Super Bowl wins. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers won the Super Bowl during the 2010 season but have yet to make it back. It can happen quickly.
It’s easy to say that it won’t happen to Mahomes and Reid. This is arguably the best HC-QB combo since Belichick and Brady. Plus, Mahomes is only 29. Theoretically, this is when all-time quarterbacks start to play their best, and we should only expect Mahomes to get better.
However, one thing became evident on Sunday: the Chiefs looked old. Part of that had to do with some injuries, but the Chiefs relying on Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Kareem Hunt in big moments proved to be too much.
The only player who stood out in a positive way was Xavier Worthy, who led the team with 157 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The rest of the receivers and tight ends combined for just 90 yards on 20 targets.
Patrick Mahomes hitting a deep shot to Xavier Worthy. Would love to see Mahomes throw it deep more often.. pic.twitter.com/oR2GyNKdqB
— Adam Carter (@SmartfootbalI) February 10, 2025
The lack of weapons was an issue for the Chiefs during the regular season, and it’s why they never scored 30 or more points in a game. If Worthy wasn’t creating explosive plays in the passing game, the Chiefs had a hard time scoring points quickly. And with Worthy having a quiet first half, Kansas City couldn’t muster up more than one first down.
It became evident that the Eagles weren’t afraid of any of the Chiefs' weapons, but they made sure to give Kelce plenty of attention on passing downs. Doubling him took away the middle of the field for the Chiefs, and Mahomes just didn’t trust anyone else to get open.
The bigger issue was that the Eagles created pressure without blitzing. They did not allow Mahomes to step up into the pocket, which resulted in several sacks. One of the league’s best offensive lines looked overwhelmed all night, torpedoing their chance of staying in the game.
The Eagles did not blitz once across 42 dropbacks in Super Bowl LIX, just the 4th defense to not blitz in a game in the NGS era.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 10, 2025
Relying on their front four, the Eagles generated 16 pressures and sacked Mahomes six times, his most in a game in his career.
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Bad days happen, and that was certainly the case for the Chiefs on Sunday.
So, where do the Chiefs go from here? Do they retool their roster and load up for a run next season? Or is it time to think about having a reset year and getting younger on both sides of the ball?
The Chiefs enter the 2025 offseason with just more than $11 million in cap space, but they have several big-time free agents, including Trey Smith, Justin Reid, Nick Bolton, and Marquise Brown. They can obviously restructure a few contracts, but this roster needs a major facelift and doesn’t have many resources available.
The easiest answer is to just retool and lean on Mahomes and Reid to do their thing. They are still the favorites in the AFC West and could waltz to a No. 1 or No. 2 seed without much effort. However, the goal is to win a Super Bowl, and that will require much more effort.
With teams like the Bills and Ravens having competitive rosters with similar-caliber quarterbacks, the Chiefs can’t afford to just run things back and assume they’ll get back to the Super Bowl.
The offense needs a full reset. That much is for certain. Kelce's future is uncertain, but it might be in the Chiefs' best interest for him to move on. His lack of speed and explosiveness over the middle has bogged down the unit at times. Hopkins was a nice midseason addition, but he just wasn’t dynamic enough on the outside. Smith-Shuster and Hunt were fine role players, but both were relied upon too much in big games.
Kansas City has gotten by with lackluster weapons during the last three seasons, and it had two Super Bowl wins during that span. Still, that can’t be the strategy for moving forward.
The Chiefs need to find more playmakers, and the hope is that a healthy Rashee Rice with Worthy will be enough. Brett Veach and the rest of the front office need to treat this offseason like they are lightyears behind the Eagles — because they are. The talent gap in the game showed that.
Hoping that Worthy improves and Rice gets healthy can't be the whole strategy. They need to take some big swings if they want to make it back to the Super Bowl again next year because you can bet that the rest of the AFC will be doing the same.
The Chiefs' dynasty isn’t finished yet, but the window is closing. They no longer feel invincible, like they did in the last few years. Yes, they went 15-2 in the regular season, but most of those wins were hardly impressive.
At some point, you need to blow out good teams and assert your dominance. That wasn’t the Chiefs at any point during the 2024 regular season.
If the Chiefs want to get back to being a dominant, threatening squad, they are going to need to make some major changes. Because running things back with the same unit in 2025-2026 won’t be enough. Will they be bold enough to make those moves to really extend the window?
That is the biggest question as we enter a long offseason for the Chiefs.
