Fantasy
12/30/23
5 min read
How To Handle Week 17 Chalk In DFS
It's common for DFS players to key in on the same expected top plays each week, or 'chalk plays' if you will. Each week, we'll look at the expected chalk plays with tips and best practices to improve your roster construction.
We’ll also explore theoretical and conceptual areas of roster construction in DFS as we examine various pieces of chalk throughout the season, with the goal to grow as players along the way. Numerous tips, or best practices, will emerge from this exploration. With that, and in our best Bruce Buffer voice, it’s time!
WEEK 17 CHALK
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
The best running back in the game, with the best running back role in the game, on the team with the highest Las Vegas-implied team total in Week 17. Checks out. That said, let’s be honest with the fact that Christian McCaffrey has failed to top 25 DK points eight times this season (out of 15 games), which is the bare minimum score you would need to feel good about playing him at his prohibitive salary.
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
Zamir White has served as the lead back for the Las Vegas Raiders the last two weeks while Josh Jacobs has been out. In those games, he has seen running back opportunity counts of 21 and 23, while playing snap rates of 70 and 76 percent.
That’s borderline elite volume, in a matchup that had yielded 27.6 DK points per game this season (third most), at a price of only $5,100. Yes, White has clear paths to failure with very little pass game involvement, but that profile has to be treated as one of, if not the, top point-per-dollar range of outcomes on the slate.
Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers
Look, I get it, the Denver Broncos defense has been much better of late but has continued to struggle to contain opposing tight ends, allowing 16.7 DK points per game to the position (most in the league). That said, Gerald Everett is a 60- to 70-percent snap rate player with 11 total red zone targets (in 13 games played) this season and a 3.8 aDOT. Miss me with this nonsense.
What’s Most Important in Week 17
As we’ve done of late, it’s best to start our exploration of the slate with what is most important. This week, there are three primary spots that carry a high degree of certainty for us, and one spot that we must account for due to a high game total. The three primary points of emphasis are the San Francisco 49ers, the Los Angeles Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles, while the game environment we must account for is the Miami Dolphins-Baltimore Ravens game.
The field is expressing a high degree of certainty in McCaffrey, Kyren Williams and Jalen Hurts among the three teams we must account for. The field is also almost entirely leaving Deebo Samuel (sub five percent ownership), Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, D’Andre Swift, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Puka Nacua (sub five percent ownership) and Cooper Kupp (sub five percent ownership) out to dry.
Furthermore, and from a macro perspective, there are only three players on the slate expected to garner more than 20 percent ownership, but those three players are expected to be heavily owned. That introduces an interesting dynamic to this slate in that we must realize this is a 13-game slate.
That means, statistically speaking, there are more opportunities for outlier production to emerge (more games equals more teams equals more players on the slate). That also means that we are likely to require higher raw point totals to win GPPs this week, which is an important realization as we attempt to reverse engineer the optimal way to approach the slate.
Basically, players that don’t carry elite upside in their range of outcomes lose a bit of appeal. For example, Demario Douglas, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice and Curtis Samuel are all expected to garner relatively significant ownership but don’t carry elite cost-considered ceilings.
Players such as Nico Collins, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Greg Dortch are objectively better plays at similar price points that carry higher top-end outcomes in their overall range of outcomes.
Building Leverage Through That
Samuel, Swift and the Rams' wide receivers are four of the highest pure leverage generating stances to take on the slate, all of whom play for offenses we must account for and are expected to garner deflated ownership rates.
Furthermore, players like Collins, Olave and Travis Kelce fundamentally alter the composition of rosters this week due to where they are priced in that they change where salary is being allocated away from the field. These are the players most interesting to me on a slate where we’re likely to require a higher raw point total to win.
As far as roster construction goes, the field is highly likely to begin the roster building process with either McCaffrey, Kyren Williams or Tyreek Hill and pair one of them with White. Double (or triple) pay-up wide receivers, a pay-up tight end (basically just Kelce) and mid-range options at wide receiver and running back all gain increased leverage on this slate.
That will do it for our Week 17 exploration of chalk and some theoretical and conceptual takeaways. We’ll be running this series every week of the 2023 season, picking out new learning points with each week. I welcome all feedback with this new column, so please don’t hesitate to reach out to let me know things you like or things I could do better.
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