Analysis
11/7/22
9 min read
Fantasy Football Week 9: Five Things We Learned
Welcome to The Five Takeaways! Every Monday morning, this article will bring you the top need-to-know storylines for Fantasy Football in 2022. All data included in this article comes from trumedianetworks.com unless otherwise stated.
Jeff Wilson Is Miami's No. 1 Back
- Miami Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel worked as the San Francisco 49ers' run game coordinator (2017-2020) and offensive coordinator (2021) before accepting Miami’s vacant head coaching gig this offseason.
- On Tuesday, Nov. 9, just hours ahead of the conclusion of the NFL trade deadline, McDaniel jettisoned running back Chase Edmonds to the Denver Broncos shortly before acquiring Wilson, one of his former pupils, from San Francisco.
- Wilson immediately asserted himself as Miami’s No. 1 running back over incumbent (and fellow San Francisco 49er/McDaniel understudy) Raheem Mostert.
| Miami Dolphins RBs - Week 9 | Snaps: Total - 3rd/4th Down-&-Long - 2-Min. Drill | Rush Att. - Yards Rushing - TD - Fum. | Routes - Rec./Tgt. - Yards Rec. - TD - Fum. | Per Route: Target Rate - Yards Rec. |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | 27 - 2 - 3 | 9 - 51 - 0 - 0 | 13 - 3/3 - 21 - 1 - 0 | 23.1% - 1.62 |
| Raheem Mostert | 24 - 5 - 7 | 9 - 26 - 1 - 0 | 12 - 0/2 - 0 - 0 - 0 | 16.7% - 0.00 |
- “3rd/4th Down-and-Long” refers to third and fourth down with three or more yards to go.
| Miami Dolphins RBs in Scoring Position - Week 9 | Snaps: Red Zone - Green Zone | Red Zone: Rush Att. - Targets - Touchdowns |
| Jeff Wilson | 8 - 4 | 3 - 2 - 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 3 - 1 | 2 - 0 - 1 |
- The red zone is the distance between the opponent’s 20-yard-line and the end zone.
- The green zone is the distance between the opponent’s 10-yard-line and the end zone.
- Wilson spent more time on the field and was far more efficient, both as a rusher and receiver.
- Mostert is the primary passing-down running back but Wilson is a factor there. Wilson is the primary running back when Miami is in scoring position.
| Miami Dolphins RBs - Week 9 | PPR Points - Week 9 |
| Jeff Wilson | 16.20 |
| Raheem Mostert | 8.60 |
Pitts’ Week 4 Hamstring-Strain Fallout
- Falcons TE Kyle Pitts suffered a hamstring strain partway through the Atlanta Falcons Week 4 win against the Cleveland Browns, and it appears to have slowed him down far more than is commonly understood.
- Per Dr. Adam Hutchison’s Injury Index, tight ends average 2.6 games missed due to hamstring strains and suffer a more than 38.0% dip in fantasy production in their initial return. Pitts missed Week 4 and struggled to produce through Weeks 6 and 7, which would mark the typical conclusion of the 2.6-game window in which most tight ends are unable to even play. It stands to reason Pitts was not back at full strength until Week 8.
- The table below ranks Pitts in parentheses among tight ends with at least 10 targets in Weeks 1-3, at least 10 targets in Weeks 4-7 and at least five targets in Weeks 8-9.
| Kyle Pitts’ Receiving Data | Routes Run per QB Drop Back | Per Route: Target Rate - Yards Rec. | Air Yards per Target - Yards After Catch per Rec. | PPR Points per Game |
| Weeks 1-3 | 87.1% (T-No. 22) | 24.3% (No. 6) - 1.69 (No. 6) | 15.72 (No. 1) - 4.78 (No. 13) | 7.17 (No. 15) |
| Weeks 4-7 | 95.3% (No. 11) | 29.3% (No. 1) - 1.29 (T-No. 17) | 8.42 (No. 9) - 1.29 (No. 30) | 6.10 (No. 23) |
| Weeks 8-9 | 97.9% (No. 7) | 34.8% (No. 3) - 2.33 (No. 7) | 15.65 (No. 2) - 7.71 (No. 6) | 11.85 (No. 10) |
- As shown in the table above, the hamstring strain put a minor dent in his route participation rate but badly impacted his yardage efficiency as all three yards-receiving categories plummeted.
- Pitts’ target-earning ability has only improved since Week 1 and both his average depth of target and run-after-catch prowess have returned to a nearly unparalleled level.
- Thanks to a brutal overthrow by quarterback Marcus Mariota, Pitts’ buy-low window remains intact as Pitts finished Week 9 with just 4.70 PPR points. This reception alone would have yielded 14.3 PPR points as a walk-off touchdown was imminent.
The world must know about this missed connection between Marcus Mariota and Kyle Pitts 😔
pic.twitter.com/GGELoBWmWr— Mojo Markets (@mojo) November 6, 2022
- Fantasy managers need to take advantage of the Week 9 heartbreak as Pitts is primed to explode through the second half of the season.
Jacobs Losing Passing-Game Work
- Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs profiled as a true dual-threat running back in college but the fourth-year pro has never been unleashed as a bell cow prior to this season. That all changed in Week 3 of Year 4, as Jacobs suddenly saw an increase in his passing game usage. Unfortunately, Jacobs’ yards receiving efficiency has wavered between inefficient and abysmal, and the coaching staff noticed.
- Journeyman running back Ameer Abdullah, a well-known passing-game specialist worked his way into the rotation after Las Vegas’ Week 6 bye.
| Las Vegas Raiders RB - Receiving Data | (Josh Jacobs) Per Route: Target Rate - Yards Rec. | (Ameer Abdullah) Per Route: Target Rate - Yards Rec. |
| Weeks 3-5 | 23.9% - 1.51 | 0.0% - 0.00 |
| Week 7 | 23.5% - 0.71 | 33.3% - 1.17 |
| Week 8 | 23.5% - 0.65 | 35.7% - 2.00 |
| Week 9 | 15.0% - 1.00 | 27.3% - 0.73 |
- With the dip in passing game production, Jacobs will need either a positive game script (ie. needing Las Vegas to be winning) or extreme rushing efficiency. The latter could be facilitated by soft-run defenses.
Looking At Jacobs' Opponents
- Three of Las Vegas’ eight remaining opponents are top 12 in offensive scoring.
- Five of Las Vegas’ eight remaining opponents are top 12 in run defense success rate. Two more are in the top 15.
- Four of Las Vegas’ eight remaining opponents are top 12 in yards rushing per rush attempt allowed. One more is in the top 15.
- Four of Las Vegas’ eight remaining opponents are top 12 in defensive total rushing expected points added.
- Based on matchups alone, Jacobs has a reasonable chance to keep himself in the RB1 conversation in three of Las Vegas’ eight remaining games.
- Weeks 10-12 bring three of the league’s 12-best run defenses in the Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is top five in scoring offense.
- Fantasy managers with Jacobs rostered should sell high on him, ideally seeking RB1 value in return. If RB1 value cannot be gained, it might be best to settle for mid-to-high RB2 value.
Buy St. Brown Before Week 10
- Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has not had an eruption game since Week 2, thanks to a nagging Week 3 ankle injury, a Week 6 bye and a stint in the league’s concussion protocol in Week 7.
- In Weeks 8-9, St. Brown returned to his trademark elite efficiency, but his 11.70 PPR points per game rank him as WR32.
- The table below shows St. Brown ranked in parentheses among NFL wide receivers with at least five targets during the cited span.
| Amon-Ra St Brown | Targets per Route Run Rate | Yards per Route Run | Air Yards per Target | Yards After Catch per Rec. | Per Game: PPR pts. - Routes Run |
| Weeks 1-2 | 34.8% (No. 7) | 2.61 (No. 17) | 6.29 (No. 85) | 5.12 (No. 26) | 29.90 (No. 4) - 34.50 (No. 39) |
| Weeks 3-7 | 30.8% (T-No. 7) | 1.83 (No. 39) | 4.06 (No. 124) | 6.27 (No. 21) | 6.83 (No. 78) - 17.33 (No. 104) |
| Weeks 8-9 | 30.2% (No. 7) | 1.97 (T-No. 28) | 8.26 (No. 49) | 4.09 (No. 35) | 11.70 (No. 32) - 31.50 (T-No. 37) |
- As shown above, St. Brown maintained his exceptional target-earning ability, but it has taken him a while to get his per-route yardage efficiency back up to snuff.
- Week 10 should bring an explosive showing as St. Brown’s Lions face off against the Chicago Bears.
- Chicago is among the league’s worst defenses in slot coverage. The Bears have allowed an 82.4% slot catch rate (second highest), 12.21 yards per reception (eighth most) and 5.55 yards after the catch per reception (10th most).
Two Fantasy-Relevant Running Backs in Atlanta
- Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) returned from a four-week absence this week. Both he and Atlanta Falcons rookie Tyler Allgeier finished well inside the position’s top 24. With Monday night's game left to be played, Patterson (18.30 PPR points) is the RB6, and Allgeier (13.30 PPR points) is tied for the RB14.
| Atlanta Falcons RBs in Week 9 | Rush Att. - Yards Rushing - TD - Fum. | Yards After Contact per Rush Att. | Snaps: Total - 3rd/4th Down-&-Long - 2-Min. Drill | Per Route: Target Rate - Yards | Routes Run - Rec./Tgt. - Yards Rec. - TD - Fum. |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 13 - 44 - 2 - 0 | 1.92 | 23 - 4 - 0 | 11.1% - 1.00 | 9 - 1/1 - 9 - 0 - 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 - 99 - 0 - 0 | 6.70 | 23 - 4 - 3 | 12.5% - 3.00 | 8 - 1/1 - 24 - 0 - 0 |
- Allgeier out-played Patterson on a per-touch basis, which was to be expected. Per Dr. Adam Hutchison’s Injury Index, running backs experience a 21.9% dip in fantasy-point production in their initial game back from a non-specific knee injury. Patterson’s efficiency may take some time to fully return. Running backs can experience a 17.7% average dip in production in the three weeks following their return from this injury, in the event that they experience any lingering, notable issues.
- The two running backs split third/fourth-and-long situations evenly, but Allgeier maintained an edge in the two-minute drill.
| Atlanta Falcons RBs in Scoring Position - Week 9 | Snaps: Red Zone - Green Zone | Red Zone: Rush Att. - Targets - Touchdowns |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 6 - 4 | 4 - 1 - 2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3 - 1 | 1 - 0 - 0 |
- Patterson is the clear-cut lead running back in the green zone.
- Allgeier is a factor in the red zone and actually took one more snap between the opponent’s 20-10 yard lines. The green zone role is preferable though.
- Atlanta’s rushing offense has been one of the league’s most potent and voluminous units this year, but the Week 9 backfield still managed to beat their own averages in all relevant efficiency metrics.
- The table below ranks Atlanta in parentheses among NFL teams in various rushing efficiency statistics.
| NFL Rushing Data | Per Game: Rush Att. - Yards Rushing per Rush Att. | Per Game: Yards Rushing - TD | Yards After Contact per Rush Att. | 3rd-Down Conversion % via Rush Att. |
| Atlanta Falcons: Weeks 1-9 | 33.67 (No.3) - 4.84 (No. 12) | 162.89 (No. 4) - 1.22 (T-No. 7) | 2.83 (No. 20) | 65.6% (No. 4) |
| Atlanta Falcons: Weeks 9 | 35.00 (No. 4) - 5.74 (No. 6) | 201.00 (No. 3)- 2.00 (T-No. 2) | 3.37 (No. 7) | 100.0% (T-No. 1) |
- The white-hot duo gets to face the Carolina Panthers, who are tied for the eight-worst run defense success rate (57.5%), and the Chicago Bears, allowing the seventh most yards rushing per rush attempt (4.85), in their next two games.
WATCH MORE: A Few More Week 9 Fantasy Football takeaways.
