NFL Analysis
7/16/24
9 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: League-Winning Sleepers To Grab This Year
The key to winning your fantasy league is identifying one or two sleepers who could widely outperform their average draft position (ADP). Last year, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams were the players selected outside of the top 100 who ended up helping managers win their leagues. So, who are the sleepers that you should be targeting this year?
For the purposes of this article, we will use ESPN's average draft position to help identify sleepers. Any player currently being drafted inside of the first six rounds (72 picks) will not be eligible.
Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: 79, RB23)
With Josh Jacobs out in Las Vegas, it is officially time for Zamir White to take over the backfield. A former fourth-round pick from Georgia, White has been a long-time favorite of the front office and the coaching staff. However, with Jacobs on the roster, it was hard for White to have a consistent role in the offense. Not anymore.
White is the clear-cut starter, and with new head coach Antonio Pierce on the sideline, he should see plenty of work. In the five games Jacobs started with Piece as the interim head coach, he averaged 20 carries per game! In those five games, Jacobs averaged 14.02 fantasy points per game. While those aren't high-end RB1 numbers, they are solid.
But when Jacobs went down with an injury, White saw even more work, averaging 21 carries per game over the final four games of the season. In those four games, White scored at least 13 fantasy points in each contest and averaged more than 15 fantasy points per game. So, to recap, the starting running back for the Raiders during the nine-game stretch with Pierce as the head coach racked up 184 carries. That is unheard of in today’s NFL.
If White can maintain that production level, he will have a chance to finish as a top-10 fantasy running back despite not offering much in the receiving game.
His sheer volume on the ground will make him a viable and reliable fantasy option. The good news is that the Raiders will have a defense good enough to keep them in games, ensuring that White will stay on the field.
Zamir White breaks free for 43 yards!
— NFL (@NFL) December 25, 2023
📺: #LVvsKC on CBS/NICK
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/2Mgsj0ajbL pic.twitter.com/oKfu0kNCrG
It's also worth noting that the backups in Las Vegas aren't attractive, as Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah are no threat to steal touches away from him. White has age, athleticism, and a potential backfield to himself, but he is being priced as a backup option in the late seventh round. He is a must-draft anytime after the fifth round, given his potential upside in 2024.
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 103, RB32)
Tony Pollard was a late-first-round pick in most fantasy leagues last year. That was despite him coming off a brutal foot injury that he suffered during the 2022 postseason. Pollard played all 17 games for the Cowboys, racking up over 1,300 yards from scrimmage and scoring six touchdowns. Somehow, it was a disappointing season for Pollard, who many expected to post huge numbers after the Cowboys released Ezekiel Elliott. But now Pollard finds himself on a new team with a drastically different ADP.
Pollard is being drafted outside of the top 100 picks in most leagues. His current draft position among running backs is RB32, which seems pretty wild. Pollard has posted back-to-back 1,300-yard seasons, and he is a monster in PPR leagues, having at least 39 receptions in three consecutive seasons.
The Titans aren’t as dynamic on offense as the Cowboys. Still, they have a lot of weapons, and the offensive line should be significantly improved after the additions of Bill Callahan, JC Lathan, and Lloyd Cushenberry. Tyjae Spears will be the complementary back, but Pollard is the better pass blocker and receiver.
Pollard should see a lot of work on an up-and-coming offense, which is great news for fantasy managers. And considering Pollard’s track record of success and durability, he will prove to be a steal in your fantasy. Take Pollard a round or two higher than his ADP, as he is the perfect post-hype sleeper.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 115, WR42)
The 2023 wide receiver class produced some incredible rookie seasons, including Puka Nacua, Jordan Addison, Rashee Rice, and Zay Flowers. But you might have forgotten that Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the first receiver off the board. “JSN” played on the same Ohio State team as Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Marvin Harrison Jr., and outproduced them all in 2021. A hamstring injury limited him in 2022, but he was still taken 20th overall.
Smith-Njigba had a relatively quiet rookie season, producing 63 catches for 628 yards and four touchdowns. He appeared in all 17 games and was the team’s primary slot receiver. His ADP by September on ESPN was 85, but now he is going 30 spots later despite his role being even more locked in.
There are still some questions about how many targets he’ll earn in an offense with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but this is an incredibly talented receiver that the Seahawks just spent a first-round pick on a year ago.
As the season went on, it was clear that he became more comfortable in the offense. Over the final 10 weeks of the season, he averaged 42 yards per game. That isn't enough to be fantasy-relevant, but it was a sign that he was improving compared to how the first two months of the year went for JSN.
As sweet as pumpkin pie. pic.twitter.com/otCBkm1YVN
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) November 24, 2023
Surely, the Seahawks are expecting a bigger role from him, and he should be on the field more in two wide receiver sets as Lockett is being phased out of the offense. Smith-Njigba played 64 percent of the offensive snaps last year despite appearing in all 17 games. That number will need to go way up in 2024, but expect that to be the case as they limit Lockett's snaps.
It's also worth noting that most receivers usually break out in Year 2, and it’s not very often that you can get a former first-round pick at 22 this late in your drafts. Bet on his upside and youth here and expect the Seahawks to give him a much bigger workload in Year 2.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers (ADP: 169, WR70)
The Packers are among the few teams in the NFL without a defined No. 1 pass catcher. It’s a fascinating strategy for a team with so much success in Year 1 of the Jordan Love era.
Will it work? That remains to be seen, but it also means that there could be a ton of value to be had at the wide receiver position. Here is the current ADP of the top pass catchers in Green Bay as of this posting:
Jayden Reed – ADP: 98, WR47
Christian Watson – ADP: 106, WR41
Romeo Doubs – ADP: 163, WR59
Dontayvion Wicks – ADP: 169, WR70
Of the top four receivers in Green Bay, Wicks is the cheapest despite earning the third-most targets (58) and yards (581) on the team last season. The list of Day 3 receivers who produced over 500 yards during their rookie season is relatively small, but it has historically been a good indicator of future success.
Wicks is one of just 34 receivers in NFL history to post 550 yards as a rookie, and he did so in 15 games (and six starts). He played nearly 50 percent of the offensive snaps as a rookie and quickly became one of Love’s favorite targets.
With so much unknown about the passing game of the Packers entering the 2024 season, it’s best to just take the cheapest option here.
Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers (ADP: 170, TE21)
Identifying sleepers at the tight end position is difficult because it’s the one position that is the most stable year-over-year in fantasy football. Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle have been stables atop of the position, and it’s pretty rare to see newcomers like Sam LaPorta replicate their production.
But if you decide to wait at the tight end position this year, consider selecting Luke Musgrave at the end of your drafts. For all of the reasons mentioned above regarding Wicks, they apply to Musgrave, too. The pecking order for targets is still up in the air for Green Bay, and it’s possible that Musgrave could become the featured target in the red zone.
Another reason why Musgrave makes so much sense as a sleeper pick is due to the recent injury of Tucker Kraft, who will be sidelined for most of the offseason and potentially training camp after suffering a torn pectoral muscle. That has allowed Musgrave to work exclusively with the first team, and his skill set fits perfectly for fantasy production. Musgrave is a massive tight end with long speed and athleticism. He is a pass catcher with almost no interest as a blocker.
His best NFL comparison might be Jimmy Graham, who had a similar body type and made his money by creating plays down the field. After a successful rookie season (352 yards on 34 receptions), it’s likely that his role in the offense could grow exponentially. And if it doesn’t, it only costs you a late-round pick.
Consider throwing a dart on Musgrave, as he is yet another cheap option in what should be an elite offense. Musgrave’s athleticism and potential receiving production is a massive value anytime after the top 130 picks.
