Fantasy
9/26/24
3 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: Expert Start, Sit Picks for NFL Week 4
Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.
But if you’re willing to be fooled multiple times without giving up on a player, you might be a hardcore fantasy football fan.
By the time Week 4 of the NFL season is complete, we’ll officially be in October. At that point, being patient with guys who’ve underperformed because “it’s still early” will significantly diminish your playoff odds.
In this week’s start/sit article, the goal is still to give suggestions, but we’ll also take some time to explore the names of players on thin ice who need to demonstrate reasons to stick by them.
One more poor performance from anyone on that shortlist, and it’s off the bench and onto the waiver wire. Stick around and get prepared to secure that Week 4 victory:
Week 4 Quarterback Starts
- Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (vs NE)
- C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (vs JAC)
- Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers (vs CIN)
Even without the talents of megastars like WR Deebo Samuel Sr. and TE George Kittle, Brock Purdy posted an impressive 292-yard, three-touchdown performance in Week 3 vs. the Los Angeles Rams.
The statue-esque former UDFA even ran for 41 yards, a rare feat from Purdy and the second-highest total of his career to date.
With the hope of getting at least Kittle back this week, the 49ers' signal-caller is walking into a stellar matchup against a New England Patriots defense that ranks eighth-worst in pass defense DVOA, according to FTN.
Purdy is a borderline elite QB1 territory this Sunday.
C.J. Stroud is another young quarterback walking into a great matchup this weekend. Yes, the last couple of weeks for the ex-Ohio State standout have been ones to forget — particularly Week 3’s multi-turnover effort against the Minnesota Vikings.
However, facing a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that’s allowed the fourth-most passing yards (792) and third-highest fantasy points per game (21.8) to opposing quarterbacks is the “get right” type of situation Stroud managers have been clamoring for.
Lastly, it’s probably irresponsible to get caught up in the hype, but Andy Dalton really turned things around for the Carolina Panthers’ offense last Sunday.
Those out there looking for a QB2 to start in your superflex league should take a chance on the one they call “the Red Rifle” in Week 4’s revenge game against his former team, the Cincinnati Bengals. Through three weeks, their defense ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA.
Week 4 Quarterback Sits
- Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (@ CHI)
- Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (vs PIT)
Credit where it's due: Matthew Stafford led a tremendous comeback victory effort last Sunday against the 49ers.
From a real-life football standpoint, the Rams can keep their hopes afloat while wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacaua remain sidelined with injuries. But from a fantasy standpoint, the Rams showed managers that whatever success they have will be funneled through the running game with RB Kyren Williams.
If the best Stafford can do without his top weapons is 221 passing yards and one touchdown, then a Week 4 matchup against a Chicago Bears front that ranks eighth-best in total defense DVOA is less than ideal.
Speaking of the Bears' defense, how about the quarterback they shut down last week?
Apologies to everyone who may have taken my advice in my Week 3 start/sits and went ahead with Anthony Richardson in lineups. While he may possess Herculean athleticism and tremendous upside with his legs, the lack of passing consistency is killing Richardson and the Colts' offense.
According to TruMedia, Richardson ranks eighth-worst in EPA per dropback (-0.14) and stands alone as the only qualified quarterback with a completion percentage below 50 percent.
A Week 4 showdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers (fourth-best pass defense DVOA in 2024) isn’t a great spot for him to flip the switch, and until we see any signs of improvement, it’s probably best for 1-QB managers to find a different player to start.
Richardson’s ceiling is far too high to warrant cutting him, but he should only sniff lineups in Superflex.
Week 4 Running Back Starts
- Devin Singletary, New York Giants (vs DAL)
- James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (vs WAS)
- Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (@ IND)
I talked a bit about Devin Singletary’s hot start to 2024 in the Week 4 rankings article, and the success he’s having cannot be stressed enough.
The veteran ranks fifth among running backs in yards after contact per attempt (3.93) and has posted a respectable average of 14.2 points per game in point-per-reception (PPR) scoring.
Thursday night’s showdown against the Dallas Cowboys should be an excellent spot for Singletary, as the Cowboys have allowed the most rushing touchdowns (six) and the fourth-most rushing yards (392) to opposing running backs in 2024 to date.
Another veteran with a cakewalk opponent is James Conner. For as much fun as it is to poke at the Washington Commanders’ poor secondary in these articles, we must acknowledge that their front seven (32nd in run defense DVOA) is equally as bad.
At this point, just start anyone against the Commanders, regardless of position.
Turning attention back to Pittsburgh, it’s important to note that RB Najee Harris is “likely to be ready” for Week 4 after being spotted sporting a sling on his right arm on Monday.
Assuming this is true, the ex-Alabama plodder should rack up tremendous volume (18.3 carries per game so far this season) and find great success facing the Colts' league-worst run defense (409 rushing yards allowed, 32nd in the NFL).
Week 4 Running Back Sits
- Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (@ NYG)
- Samaje Perine, Kansas City Chiefs (@ LAC)
- Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (@ CAR)
Here, we reach a trio of running backs who not only shouldn’t be started in Week 4 but are probably more appropriate to be off rosters completely.
Okay… maybe that’s a little harsh to say about Samaje Perine already. Through one week of the post-Isiah Pacheco backfield experiment, the veteran ceded a tremendous amount of work to rookie Carson Steele:
Is there room for Perine and Steele to be relevant? Absolutely! But in a game with limited roster spots, I’d give Perine one more opportunity to show that he can come closer to splitting work.
If he can’t, use that roster spot to take a dart throw on a different ascending player (Roschon Johnson of the Chicago Bears, perhaps?).
As for Ezekiel Elliott and Chase Brown, it’s more than fair to say goodbye already.
Though a reunion with the team that drafted him as a first-rounder in 2016 was a nice story this offseason, it’s clear that Elliott has fallen out of favor with the Cowboys.
The 29-year-old is now at a point where his playing time is so diminished that teammate Rico Dowdle is seeing most of the backfield work (44.9 percent snap share, per Fantasy Points Data).
Similarly, Brown is only charting a 17.9 percent route participation and a minuscule 24.3 percent snap share behind veteran teammate Zack Moss. This change-of-pace role was anticipated to be one that the second-year specialist could thrive in, although the Bengals' choice to opt for Moss's bruising tendencies should tell us that the pre-draft pipedream was all for naught.
Cut your losses on the duo and move on to better things.
Week 4 Wide Receiver Starts
- Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans (vs JAC)
- Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders (@ ARI)
- Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills (@ BAL)
Even in a “down” week for his offense, Stefon Diggs managed to explode for 10 catches on 12 targets for 92 receiving yards in Week 3 vs. the Vikings.
Through three games, Diggs is pacing his teammate Nico Collins in targets per route run (0.23 to Collins’ 0.25), according to Fantasy Points Data, and essentially serves as Stroud’s 1B receiver — there is no clear-cut “one” or “two” on the Texans.
It’s unclear why folks in the fantasy sphere continue to rank Diggs as a WR3/flex option despite these early results. Give this man his flowers!
Another player who deserves a massive amount of credit is Khalil Shakir. These numbers speak for themselves and honestly don’t require much explanation:
According to Vegas Insider, Sunday’s contest between the Commanders and Arizona Cardinals holds the highest implied combined point total (50.5) of any Week 4 game.
Not that starting Terry McLaurin on the heels of a breakout Week 3 is a novel idea or anything. However, this feels like a good opportunity to remind readers that whenever you’re stuck on making a start/sit decision, the Vegas oddsmakers can be a solid tiebreaker.
Gambling is a business built around making money off people, and if the folks setting the lines think a game will explode, that’s probably a good indicator of a matchup you should exploit for fantasy, too.
Week 4 Wide Receiver Sits
- Gabe Davis, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ HOU)
- Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers (vs KC)
- Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (@ DET)
We now return to the realm of players who don’t deserve roster spots, let alone inclusion in fantasy lineups.
Despite leading the Jaguars in air yards share (24.7 percent) and route participation (77.9 percent), Gabe Davis only averages 2.6 catches and 6.8 PPR points per game. His role is clearly “important” in the Jaguars’ offense, but it’s yielding unusable fantasy production, which tells us he’s not worth the squeeze.
In Quentin Johnston’s case, his “ascent” to fantasy relevance is entirely predicated on his three touchdowns in the past two weeks. The fact is, the Chargers have attempted the second-fewest passes (66) and hold the third-lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation (-11.5 percent), according to NFELO, of any team in 2024.
From a probability and real-life football standpoint, there’s no reason to assume this barrage of scores is anything more than an anomaly. Don’t be duped into picking up Johnston and thinking he’s the solution to your wide receiver problems.
As much as I hate to say it, now might be time to bid farewell to a long-time fantasy stalwart, Tyler Lockett. At this point in the season, he’s pacing TE Noah Fant in targets per route run (0.18) as the third option in the Hawks’ aerial assault and losing significant work to teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
We knew this was only a matter of time for Lockett; otherwise, taking the acronymous JSN with a 2023 first-round pick would’ve been an utterly unjustifiable move.
Still, that doesn’t make reality any less sad, and we’ll always be fond of the years of service that Lockett brought to fantasy managers.
Week 4 Tight End Starts
- Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (vs BUF)
- Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (vs LAR)
- Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers (@ IND)
Look… there’s no way around this one: Mark Andrews has been a nightmare in fantasy and could be the worst pick anyone could’ve made in their drafts to date.
The three-time Pro Bowler is losing significant playing time (61.7 route participation rate, fourth on the Ravens) and has only been targeted eight times through three games.
Before we hit the panic button, it’s vital to point out that Andrews is likely just continuing to recover from a serious mid-August car accident.
Speaking as someone who was also injured in a collision around that same time, I am indeed still shaken, and those types of events aren’t easy to bounce back from quickly.
Maybe it’s the softie in me, but I feel for Andrews and choose to believe that he’ll get back to his superstar ways. If you don’t want to start him this week, OK, but it’s not as though the fantasy landscape is providing managers with many alternatives.
Well, unless you roster either Cole Kmet or Pat Freiermuth. In that case, you’ve got a pair of nice lineup options.
It hasn’t amounted to a ton, but Freiermuth has logged at least 4 catches and 27 receiving yards in every game in 2024. The Steelers’ passing game is far from prolific, but a consistent seven-ish PPR points per game from your tight end is borderline god-like in this current landscape.
As for Kmet, his target totals have grown exponentially week-over-week from one to five to a total of 11 in Week 3, which matches a career-high in 2021.
Whether or not this growth is sustainable is irrelevant because, of course, it’s not. Still, with how poorly the position is performing as a whole, there are worse things you can do than chase the hot hand.
Week 4 Tight End Sits
- Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans (vs JAC)
- Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams (@ CHI)
For as aimless as fantasy tight ends feel right now, there are at least a few that we know aren’t worth the effort.
Dalton Schultz ranks fourth on the Texans in route participation (73.6 percent), but it’s only turned into 0.12 targets per route run to date, per Fantasy Points Data. Sure, he could be nursing an ankle injury from Week 1, but it’s not as though he’s doing anything anyway.
Go ahead and pick another random tight end to play; Schultz isn't the answer.
The same can be said for Colby Parkinson, who only managed to log three catches for 21 yards in Week 3 vs. the Niners despite the injury-depleted nature of the Rams’ offense.
If he can’t shine with Kupp and Nacua hurt, when will he?
