Analysis
7/20/23
6 min read
Fantasy Football 2023: Early-Season TE1 Streamers, Vital Stats
There are three late-round tight ends whose early-season matchups plant them firmly on the streaming TE1 radar.
Jelani Woods, Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts tight end Jelani Woods opens 2023 with a tantalizing six-game stretch, facing the Jacksonville Jaguars (twice), Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams and Tennessee Titans.
Woods battled through a mid-season shoulder injury in his 2022 rookie campaign, then erupted for a highly efficient five-game streak in Weeks 12-17.
The table below ranks, in parentheses, Woods’ Weeks 12-17 receiving data among 23 NFL tight ends with at least 20 targets during that span, per Sports Info Solutions.
| NFL TE Weeks 12-17 | Catch % | TPRR | YPRR | aDot |
| Jelani Woods | 77.3 (No. 3) | 25.3% (No. 4) | 2.6 (No. 2) | 9.3 (No. 2) |
Woods’ impressive average depth of target (aDot) pairs nicely with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, whose 10.7-yard aDot ranked No. 3 among 42 Power-5 quarterbacks with at least 300 passing attempts. All signs point to Richardson assuming the starting role early in 2023.
Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 1 & 6)
As detailed in Week 17 Tight End Matchups to Target, the Jaguars' linebacking corps is among the league’s most inept in tight end coverage.
Houston Texans (Week 2)
Houston’s tight end coverage unit finished no better than 16th in yards receiving per game (48.8), yards allowed per coverage snap (7.3) and deserved-catch-rate allowed (90.3 percent). General manager Nick Caserio bafflingly signed mediocre free agent linebacker Denzel Perryman to address the issue despite Perryman's subpar tight end coverage skills.
The eighth-year player has allowed 66.7 percent catch rates to the position in consecutive years. In 2021, he was the most picked-on linebacker in tight end coverage (21 targets).
Baltimore Ravens (Week 3)
Former first-round picks Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith anchor Baltimore’s inside linebacker positions, utilizing closing speed to limit post-catch production. The 23-year-old Queen has never allowed more than 2.0 yards per coverage snap to opposing tight ends. But Sports Info Solutions awarded him with a 100.0 percent deserved catch rate in two of three professional seasons.
Smith’s per-snap allowances have risen in consecutive campaigns, resting at a worrying 4.4 yards in 2022. His 77.8 percent catch rate allowed ranked No. 30 among 44 NFL linebackers with at least nine tight end-intended targets.
Los Angeles Rams (Week 4)
Contenders for second-team All-Pro Bobby Wagner’s vacated starting spot include special teams contributor Christian Rozeboom, second-year former undrafted free agent Jake Hummel and undrafted free agent rookie Kelechi Anyalebechi.
Run-stopping linebacker Ernest Jones’ 80.0 percent tight end catch rate allowed and 5.1 yards allowed per coverage snap make him a passing-game liability.
Tennessee Titans (Week 5)
Newly hired general manager Ran Carthon brought rotational inside linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair from San Francisco to start alongside third-year player Monty Rice. Al-Shaair has suffered two notable knee-ligament injuries in the five years, while Rice suffered a frightful Grade 2 Achilles tendon sprain in Week 12, 2021, that kept him sidelined through Week 4, 2022.
Sports Info Solutions gives Al-Shaair a 100.0 percent deserved catch rate allowed in two of four campaigns when covering tight ends. Rice allowed 80.0 percent catch rates in consecutive seasons and a healthy 3.2 yards per coverage snap in 2022.
Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers
Schedule makers rolled out the red carpet for Los Angeles Chargers tight end Gerald Everett early in the year. The 6-foot-3, 240-pound tackle-breaking monster should pummel opponents through the season’s first four weeks.
The table below ranks, in parentheses, Everett’s receiving data among 29 NFL tight ends with at least 50 targets in 2022. “B+MTF/Rec %” refers to broken and missed tackles forced per reception rate.
| NFL TE Rec. | Catch % | B+MTF/Rec % | Tackles Broken | Missed Tackles Forced |
| Gerald Everett | 67.4% (No. 16) | 31.0% (No. 1) | 13 (No. 2) | 5 (T-No. 3) |
Miami Dolphins (Week 1)
The Miami Dolphins produced a surprisingly poor 7.7 yards allowed per coverage snap against opposing tight ends (No. 22) despite stud linebacker Jerome Baker roaming the mid-field. Free agent signee David Long Jr. offers little assistance, having allowed more than 5.0 yards per coverage snap to the position in two of three seasons. Sports Info Solutions gave him a 100.0 percent deserved catch rate in 2022.
Baker and Long Jr. are uniquely suited to wilt against Everett’s specialty. Among 59 NFL linebackers with at least 25 solo run-defense tackles, Baker ranked 54th (15.7 percent), and Long Jr. ranked dead last (18.7 percent) in broken and missed tackles rate.
Tennessee Titans (Week 2)
As detailed above, Tennessee’s inside linebackers are running on shaky legs.
Minnesota Vikings (Week 3)
The Minnesota Vikings' 2022 tight-end coverage defenders ranked bottom three in yards allowed per target and yards allowed per coverage snap with identical 8.5-yard marks.
Jordan Hicks ranked No. 33 in NFL passer rating allowed (119.2) among 40 NFL linebackers with at least 10 targets thrown their way when defending tight ends.
Former third-round pick Brian Asamoah II replaces long-time starter Eric Kendricks after being tagged for a 15-yard reception on his lone tight end-coverage snap last year. Among 65 Power-5 linebackers with 10 tight end targets against them in 2021, Asamoah ranked No. 58 in catch rate allowed (78.9 percent).
Las Vegas Raiders (Week 4)
Outside linebackers Divine Deablo and Luke Masterson are catastrophic coverage liabilities. Among 79 NFL linebackers with at least five tight end targets in 2021, Deablo tied for a league-worst 11.6 yards allowed per coverage snap. He repeated the bottom-barrel feat, among 71 qualifying linebackers in 2022, with a 100.0 percent tight end catch rate allowed. His 6.0 yards allowed per coverage snap ranked outside the top 50.
Masterson defended four tight end targets in 2022. He surrendered 4.6 yards per coverage snap on three receptions.
Former Pittsburgh Steelers defender Robert Spillane was signed to man the inside linebacker position. Among 40 NFL linebackers with at least 10 tight end targets thrown into their coverage, Spillane ranked bottom 10 in catch-rate allowed (80.0 percent) and NFL passer rating allowed (129.2).
Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich put together an impressive rookie-year profile despite spending Weeks 1-5 on injured reserve because of a hamstring strain. Dulcich’s continued strong performance landed him in the No. 1 spot for new coach Sean Payton’s dual-threat “Joker” role.
The table below ranks, in parentheses, Dulcich’s receiving data among 29 NFL tight ends with at least 50 targets in 2022.
| NFL TE Rec. | On-Tgt. Catch % | aDot | Yards/Rec | Yards/Game | B+MTF/Rec % |
| Greg Dulcich | 94.3% (No. 8) | 11.2 (No. 2) | 12.5 (No. 6) | 41.1 (No. 9) | 12.1% (T-No. 11) |
Dulcich has two extremely appealing matchups during the season’s first three weeks.
Las Vegas Raiders (Week 1)
As discussed in Everett’s section above, Las Vegas’ ineffectual coverage linebacker trio offers a good time to opposing tight ends.
Miami Dolphins (Week 3)
As discussed in Everett’s section above, Dulcich’s tackle-breaking ability should come in handy.
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