2023 Fantasy Football: Week 17 Tight End Matchups to Target
Fantasy 5/18/23
The NFL season spans 18 regular-season weeks, so Week 17 functions as fantasy football’s championship week. Below are three NFL tight ends who offer must-draft, league-winning potential based on their Week 17 matchup.
>> READ: Week 17 Wide Receiver Matchups to Target
Week 17 Tight End Matchups to Target
Dallas Goedert: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Dallas Goedert sits in the league’s elite tight end tier, but his Week 17 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals puts him in TE1 contention for championship week.
- Arizona free safety Jalen Thompson, linebacker/safety-turned-slot cornerback Isaiah Simmons and linebacker Zaven Collins spent 2022 failing to cover tight ends.
- Goedert caught eight of nine targets for 95 yards receiving against Arizona. Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort attempted to fix the issue by signing Goedert’s former teammate, linebacker Kyzir White, but White’s tight end coverage data is far from inspiring.
- The table below ranks, in parentheses, Thompson, Simmons and White’s tight end coverage data among 81 NFL linebackers and safeties with at least 10 tight end targets thrown into their primary coverage.
- Collins’ data is included but left unranked as he had eight tight end targets come his way. “No. 1” denotes the player or team’s best performance. Source: SportsInfoSolutions.
NFL S & LB vs. TE Cov. | Target % | Catch %: Allowed - Deserved | Yards Allowed per Cov. Snap | Passes Defended |
Jalen Thompson | 55.6% (T-No. 22) | 80.0% (T-No. 62) - 88.9% (T-No. 42) | 4.1 (T-No. 43) | 1 (T-No. 29) |
Isaiah Simmons | 68.8% (T-No. 52) | 72.7% (T-No. 52) - 90.0% (T-No. 50) | 5.0 (T-No. 54) | 1 (T-No. 29) |
Kyzir White | 76.9% (T-No. 72) | 90.0% (T-No. 77) - 100.0% (T-No. 66) | 5.2 (T-No. 60) | 0 (T-No. 54) |
Zaven Collins | 35.3% | 66.7% - 100.0% | 2.1 | 0 |
- Collins’ catch rate allowed would have been tied for 42nd.
- The table below ranks, in parentheses, Goedert’s 2022 receiving data among 29 NFL tight ends with at least 50 targets.
NFL TE Receiving Data | Per Routes Run: Target % - Yards | Catch % | aDot - YAC/Rec | Yds/Rec |
Dallas Goedert | 18.6% (No. 14) - 1.80 (No. 3) | 81.6% (No. 1) | 5.99 (No. 23) - 6.66 (No. 3) | 11.9 (No. 8) |
- The veteran tight end should be free of pass-blocking duties against Arizona. Philadelphia’s third-ranked offensive line in blown-block rate (2.285 percent) and 11th-ranked offensive line in quarterback pressure rate allowed (31.1 percent) shouldn't have an issue blocking Arizona’s mid-tier pass rush.
Chigoziem Okonkwo: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
- It took 10 weeks for Tennessee Titans coach Mike Vrabel to deploy Chigoziem Okonkwo at a double-digit snap rate. Once the 2022 rookie was given a runway, he took flight.
- His fantasy football potential in this year’s championship game is sky-high against the Houston Texans’ shaky linebacker corps.
- The table below ranks, in parentheses, Okonkwo’s outstanding 2022 receiving data among 30 NFL tight ends with at least 50 targets.
NFL TE Receiving Data | Per Routes Run: Target % - Yards | Catch % | aDot - YAC/Rec | Yds/Rec |
Chigoziem Okonkwo | 26.9% (No. 2) - 2.63 (No. 1) | 69.6% (No. 11) | 7.63 (No. 12) - 7.94 (No. 1) | 14.1 (No. 1) |
- Houston brought in 30-yard-old free agent Denzel Perryman and fifth-round rookie Henry To’oTo’o to compete with 2022 holdovers Christian Harris and Christian Kirksey.
- To’oTo’o is unlikely to contribute after giving up a 76.9 percent catch rate against Power-5 opponents in his final college campaign.
- While Perryman is talented, he has not played a full season in his eight-year career.
- Since 2015, Perryman has suffered 12 documented injuries, including a concussion, a Grade 2 ankle sprain and an inguinal hip strain in 2022.
- The table below ranks, in parentheses, Harris and Kirksey’s tight end-coverage data among 44 NFL linebackers with at least nine tight end-targets thrown into their primary coverage.
- Perryman’s data is included but unranked, as he had six tight end targets thrown against him in 2022. Source: SportsInfoSolutions.
NFL LB vs. TE Cov. | Target % | Catch %: Allowed - Deserved | Yards Allowed per Cov. Snap | Passes Defended |
Christian Harris | 70.6% (No. 36) | 75.0% (T-No. 26) - 81.8% (T-No. 11) | 5.8% (No. 35) | 1 (T-No. 14) |
Christian Kirksey | 60.0% (T-No. 17) | 88.9% (No. 40) - 88.9% (No. 42) | 6.5 (T-No. 37) | 0 (T-No. 28) |
Denzel Perryman | 46.2% | 66.7% - 100.0% | 3.2 | 0 |
Hayden Hurst: Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars
- The Jacksonville Jaguars’ linebacking corps functioned as a weekly, winning lottery ticket for opposing tight ends in 2022.
- The table below ranks, in parentheses, Jacksonville’s receiving production allowed to tight ends on a per-game basis in 2022. Source: The 33rd Team’s The Edge tool.
DEF vs. TE Rec. Data | Catch % Allowed | Rec Yds/Game Allowed | PPG Allowed: PPR - .5PPR |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 71.7% (No. 27) | 62.0 (No. 29) | 13.6 (No. 25) - 11.3 (No. 26) |
- The table below ranks, in parentheses, starting linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd’s tight end coverage data among 40 NFL tight ends with at least 10 tight end targets thrown into their primary coverage.
- Rotational linebacker Chad Muma’s data is included but unranked. Muma had four tight-end targets in his coverage.
NFL LB vs. TE Cov. | Target % | Catch %: Allowed - Deserved | Yards Allowed per Cov. Snap | Passes Defended |
Foyesade Oluokun | 53.6% (No. 7) | 86.7% (No. 36) - 92.9% (No. 30) | 5.5 (No. 30) | 1 (T-No. 14) |
Devin Lloyd | 65.4% (T-No. 24) | 70.6% (No. 19) - 80.0% (T-No. 8) | 4.2 (No. 20) | 2 (T-No. 4) |
Chad Muma | 80.0% | 75.0% - 100.0% | 9 | 0 |
- Jacksonville’s only meaningful inside linebacker investment this offseason is former Florida Gators LB Ventrell Miller.
- Miller’s 78.6 percent catch rate allowed on 14 targets fails to instill confidence.
- Hayden Hurst’s 6-foot-4, 250-pound frame makes for an easy-to-see target for Carolina’s 5-foot-10 rookie quarterback, Bryce Young.
- The Panthers invested $21.7 million in Hurst, putting a $15.1 million buffer between him and the No. 2 tight end, Ian Thomas, showcasing the team’s intent to feature Hurst as the primary pass-catching tight end.
- While Hurst is not an elite player, he’s a reliable target earner.
- Hurst’s 17.6 percent targets-per-route-run rate falls within 1.2 percent of big-time difference makers like Goedert and San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle.
- Hurst’s 1.15 yards-per-route-run rate also beats out that of his primary interior-route-running competition, Adam Thielen, who finished 2022 with just a 1.08 rate.
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