NFL Analysis
8/27/24
6 min read
Drake Maye Should Be New England Patriots Week 1 Starter
The New England Patriots have a decision to make at quarterback. They have not yet announced the starter for Week 1 and will decide between veteran Jacoby Brissett or third-overall pick Drake Maye.
After the preseason finale, coach Jerod Mayo was asked about the quarterback competition. Mayo said, “Drake has outplayed Jacoby,” but the decision will not be that simple.
Usually, when a rookie shows he’s ready, as Maye has done through the preseason and more so in practices as camp progressed, it’s an easy option to play the young quarterback. There is only so much he can learn on the bench, and most of these younger passers need the reps to get a feel for the game.
Who Can Handle Struggling OL?
For the Patriots, it’s not just about the quality of quarterback play. The offensive surroundings play just as big of a part in determining which quarterback starts the season.
New England’s biggest issue is the offensive line. According to ESPN's pass block win rate, the Patriots had the league’s worst pass-blocking offensive line last year. Things might not be much better in 2024. The projected starting five has yet to play together, and the preseason, no matter who was on the field, looked rough.
The thinking is that the veteran (Brissett) is more equipped to handle the poor offensive line and can guide the Patriots through a rough early stretch of the season. But what if that isn’t really the case?
What if Maye, despite his inexperience, could be the better option to play behind the offensive line and give the Patriots potential for a higher ceiling on offense?
During the preseason, Brissett was hit on 26.7 percent of his dropbacks, per TruMedia. That’s the seventh-highest rate among quarterbacks with at least 10 pass attempts. He was only sacked once, but he’s also averaged 3.03 seconds to throw. That’s a long time to hold the ball, but something that comes with the territory in the play-action-heavy offense the Patriots want to run under offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt.
Brissett has been good about avoiding sacks for most of his career but isn't a stranger to taking hits. During his starting stint in Cleveland, he was hit on 16.7 percent of his dropbacks, a bit above Deshaun Watson at 16 percent, though Watson held onto the ball even longer.
There’s a chance Brissett holds onto the ball too long and takes more hits, making a struggling offensive line look worse and, therefore, continually making it less desirable to put Maye into the lineup.
>> READ MORE: See How Maye Graded vs. Washington
Maye's Pocket Management Is Strong
Maye, on the other hand, has only taken two hits — though one was a massive sack from the blindside against the Eagles — which totals just 5.4 percent of his dropbacks. That’s not going to be a sustainable rate going into the regular season (Tyson Bagent had the lowest hit rate at 8.8 percent among players with at least 100 passes, and Tua Tagovailoa was next at 9.5 percent).
However, the way in which Maye avoided hits and positioned himself in the pocket to find throwing lanes has highlighted his growing comfort and quelled some concerns from Maye heading into the draft.
Maye’s footwork was one of the biggest concerns for evaluators during the draft process. As can be the case with some of these big passers with rocket arms and the ability to move around, their feet don’t always align with the rest of the body. That left some inaccurate passes for Maye but was not a major detriment to his game.
The footwork looked better, especially in the final preseason game, as Washington’s second-team defense blew through New England’s starting offensive line. Maye could shuffle and reset his feet to avoid hits and find passing lanes.
Sometimes, it was as simple as stepping up in the pocket when the space was there:
Good job by Drake Maye at the top of his drop. Knows he's getting heated up and doesn't waste any time moving up to make the throw. Nothing special but clean operation. pic.twitter.com/9a04ZLihIc
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) August 26, 2024
He also drifted with control in order to avoid the rush:
Better example of Maye's pocket movement here. Sees a flash of color through the LT's inside shoulder and drifts outside. Good process; throw could be a little better/safer. pic.twitter.com/9pOlU44sMR
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) August 26, 2024
Maye also has the athleticism to get out of the pocket and make a play. He had a 17-yard scramble against Washington, a four-yard zone read keeper for a touchdown against Philadelphia, and made a few throws on the run.
Scheming Around Poor OL Play
The Patriots have also worked some quicker throws into the offense that could work for Maye, especially out of empty. Maye was in empty for 21.1 percent of his preseason dropbacks. Eight quarterbacks used empty on at least 20 percent of their dropbacks last regular season, including three from Cleveland, where Van Pelt was the offensive coordinator working through offensive line issues.
Empty sets spread the defense out, limit the type of pressures that can come, and typically force the coverage to reveal itself. Those are all helpful things for a young quarterback.
Maye’s average depth of target has only been 3.0 out of empty in the preseason, but it’s a way to get the ball out quickly, in the rhythm of the offense, and keep him away from pressure.
Even the shorter passes can show what Maye is capable of, including the touchdown pass to running back Kevin Harris against Washington. The throw only went a yard past the line of scrimmage, but it was out in two seconds. Maye placed the ball on the outside shoulder, which allowed Harris to turn away from the defender and make a run after the catch.
One way to protect a young qb behind a bad offensive line? Ball out quick in empty. pic.twitter.com/JK6whl97um
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) August 27, 2024
Some nice plays were taken off the board because of offensive line mistakes. A scramble into a touchdown throw was erased for an illegal formation penalty, the third on tackle Chukwuma Okorafor, who lined up too far off the line of scrimmage. Maye also had a 13-yard pass called back on a questionable holding call.
If the Patriots’ offensive line is just bad, Maye can handle himself. The problem is that the team’s offensive line might be weirdly bad, taking illegal formation penalties that will push the offense back and lead to more straight dropback situations, which then allow the defense to put more resources into rushing the passer.
Few rookie passers arrive into great situations. Maye's definitely is not great. But he has shown an ability to handle some of what he’ll face when he takes the field.
It won’t be perfect, but he might be the quarterback better prepared to navigate the circumstances. He’ll be the future and might be the best bet for the present.
