Fantasy
7/7/23
6 min read
Draft Capital: The Secret to Dynasty Juggernauts
Dynasty is all about finding minor edges that turn into major edges. Over time, those minor edges compile and make your squad a true juggernaut.
The easiest way to find an edge is through acquiring future draft capital. It may sound simple, and you'd be right; it is. Yet, there is a massive edge to be gained from doing so.
Three important factors play into why acquiring future draft capital is so pivotal for dynasty juggernauts to occur; the picks are guaranteed to gain value, an incredibly safe asset and eventually cash into difference makers.
3 Keys to Building a Dynasty Juggernaut
1. Gain Value Through Draft Capital
Thanks to KeepTradeCut.com, we can track the consensus value of dynasty assets over time. This, in turn, confirmed our theory that future draft capital is guaranteed to gain value as we get closer to that draft taking place.
Using the site, we can see that a projected “mid” 2024 first-round pick in 2022 was valued as the 86th-highest asset in all of dynasty. A year later, that 2024 first-round pick is worth the 53rd-highest asset in all of dynasty, and we’re still a year away from the 2024 draft taking place.
We can also see that a “mid” 2023 first-round pick was valued as the 45th-highest-valued asset in dynasty immediately after the NFL Draft. That pick a year prior was the 58th highest-valued asset. If we go back a year before that, a 2023 “mid” first-round pick's value was the 97th highest asset.
Every year future rookie picks gain massive amounts of value just because time is passing and getting closer to that year’s NFL Draft. It’s not hard to predict what will happen to the 2025 first-round picks, with them currently valued as the 70th-highest asset in dynasty.
2. Take the Safe Investment
When we think of dynasty assets losing value, there are two major reasons. It's either because of injury or poor performance and sometimes it's a combination of both. Take Kyler Murray, for example. He has been one of the highest-valued assets since Keep Trade Cut launched. Even in a slightly down year last season, he was still a top-20 asset before his injury. Nothing about Murray’s performance or contract changed since then, but his value is now the 33rd-highest asset in dynasty because of his ACL injury.
Getting away from injury-related value decreases, we can use Gabe Davis as an example. Coming into the season, Davis was valued as a top-50 dynasty asset. He didn’t get hurt; he just simply let down people’s unrealistically high expectations. He finds himself as the 145th-highest-valued dynasty asset as I type this.
Do you know who can’t possibly tear his ACL or perform poorly? Future rookie draft picks.
Understanding that future rookie draft picks are guaranteed to gain value over time and are an incredibly safe asset to hold, we must ask, “How does this gained value turn into a dynasty juggernaut?”
3. Leverage your Picks
There are two methods for converting rookie draft picks into fantasy production.
The first one is to use the pick to select an incoming rookie. There is a wildly high turnover rate in dynasty value year over year. In fact, 21 of the 25 highest-valued dynasty players are from rookie classes in the past three years. That means 84 percent of the top 25 player assets in dynasty have entered the league since 2020.
Drafting rookies is not a total crapshoot, either. It's possible to get a good idea of a player’s fantasy success likelihood before he even steps foot in an NFL game. Of those 21 players valued inside the top 25, 20 of them were Upside+ prospects, and 14 of them were Elite+ prospects.
The good thing is drafting rookies doesn't necessarily require spending those highly valued picks. Looking at the current average draft position of dynasty startups, there are three rookie picks from the 2023 class going in the first two rounds, with six going by the end of the round 3.
That means if you’re in a 12-team league, any pick in the top half of the first round is worth a ton. For reference, these players are currently going in the fourth round of startups: Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Drake London, Austin Ekeler, Travis Etienne, DK Metcalf, Josh Jacobs and more. Just basing dynasty values on these average draft positions, you could trade your 1.06 in this year’s rookie class for any of those players. Or if you had the 1.05, you could flip it for future league wrecker Kyle Pitts. Even the 1.03 could get you a player like Murray if you chose to trade the pick. That wouldn't have been available if you chose to trade that 2023 first-round rookie pick a year ago.
Keep Building For The Future
One of the biggest misconceptions surrounding draft capital is that it’s only worth holding or compiling if you aren’t competing. That’s far from the truth. While yes, if you are a clear contender in your league, you likely don’t need to hold five first-round picks next year. Those picks hold value and can be flipped for helpful contending pieces. However, it's a good rule of thumb to always have at least one first-round pick, regardless of your contender status.
There are a couple of reasons for this.
The first is we know picks gain value over time. So just by holding my pick through a large portion of the season, I can most likely sell it for more than I could’ve at the beginning of the year. This strategy also gives us the luxury of time. As the season progresses, injuries and performance will affect the player value. With more information, we can better determine who to flip that pick for to help make a championship run.
Second, I want to make my dynasty roster as good as possible. Knowing that rookie picks are at their peak value around the time of the NFL Draft, I have a good opportunity to add strong value and production to my roster every offseason.
Acquiring or even holding future rookie draft picks is a minor edge when playing dynasty fantasy football. But just remember, minor edges add up quickly and a juggernaut is coming.
