Betting
10/22/22
6 min read
Take the Under on Heinicke: Week 7 Prop Bets
Amazingly, Week 7 is already here. We went 1-2 on Thursday night with our 6/5 confidence play hitting, but Andy Dalton’s two pick-sixes right before halftime ruining the game script for our other two plays. That brings our record for the year to 38-36-2. To help you decide which lines you want to play, I have added confidence ratings to all my plays and my pick two of the week at the end of the article.
Ezekiel Elliot OVER 0.5 Pass+Rush+Rec. Touchdowns
Detroit has one of the worst rush defenses in the league. It has given up the fifth-most rushing yards, third-most rush yards per attempt, and the second-most rushing touchdowns so far this season. Tony Pollard has seen several rush attempts in the red zone and within the 5-yard line, so I would not say it is a guarantee that Zeke will get the goal line work for Dallas, but with the Lions' defense being as bad as it is, I think Zeke will have multiple chances to run one in. Due to the randomness of touchdowns and Pollard splitting rushing work, I give this play a 3/5 confidence and would not play it if it goes to 1.0.
Matt Ryan OVER 248.6 Pass Yards
The Colts' offense finally exploded in Week 6, totaling 34 points and over 400 total yards for the first time since Week 1. A large part of that production came from Matt Ryan and the passing game finally starting to click. The Colts now get one of the worst pass defenses in the league, as the Titans give up a league-worst 287.6 passing yards per game. When these teams met in Week 4, Matt Ryan went well over this prop with 356 passing yards. I am a little worried about game script ruining this play, as well as a return to the run game with Jonathan Taylor coming back from injury, so I would give this a confidence rating of 3/5 and would play it up to 270.5 pass yards.
Hayden Hurst OVER 6.0 Fantasy Points
The Atlanta Falcons are one of the worst defenses at defending tight ends. They have given up an average of 6.8 receptions for 72.7 receiving yards per game this season to tight ends. With PrizePicks using PPR scoring, that would be an average of 14.07 fantasy points per game for tight ends. Hurst has been inconsistent this season, but only has two games this season under six fantasy points. There is also the revenge game narrative here, one that Hayden Hurst has even admitted is motivating him. I give this play a confidence rating of 4/5 and would play it up to 8.5 fantasy points
Josh Jacobs OVER 80.5 Rush Yards
The Houston Texans' defense is abysmal against the run, as it is currently giving up 133.6 rushing yards per game to running backs this season. The Raiders have recently found some success through the ground game with Josh Jacobs. Over his last two games, he has just under 300 rushing yards and is averaging 6.08 yards per rush attempt. Honestly, I like almost all of Josh Jacobs' rushing props over this week, but I think rush yards is the best one. I give this play a 4/5 confidence and would play it up to 89.5 rush yards.
P.J. Walker UNDER 149.5 Pass Yards
I initially jumped on this line when it was posted at 155.5 pass yards and I am amazed it has not moved much lower. Everything seems to be going against Walker this week. He lost one of, if not the best, receiving running backs in the NFL and has to go against one of the best pass defenses. Tampa’s defense is ranked seventh in the NFL in pass yards, only giving up 193.3 per game. It also ranks seventh in total EPA per pass play, according to TruMedia.
Walker has also never really shown that he is that good of an NFL quarterback. Last week against the Rams, he had only 60 passing yards and a negative amount of air yards. Between the lack of receiving options and going against an excellent pass defense, I feel very confident about this play. Still, with the possibility of there being a lot of garbage time and with how low the line is, I give it a 4/5 confidence rating. I would play it down to 140.5 pass yards.
Ken Walker OVER 67.5 Rush Yards
It looks like this is fully Ken Walker’s backfield now that Rashaad Penny is out for the season. Last week, the first full game since Penny’s injury, Walker saw 91% of the running back rushes for the Seahawks. The Seahawks play the Chargers this week, who have shown to be susceptible to big plays on the ground. They have allowed the second-most rushes over 20 yards and are tied with Seattle and Washington for the most rushes allowed over 50 yards. Between Walker being a bellcow running back and being guaranteed a lot of rush attempts, and the opportunity for a few big rush plays, I really like this play, would give it a confidence rating of 4.5/5 and would play it up to 75.5 rush yards.
Taylor Heinicke UNDER 108.5 Pass Yards in the First Half
The Green Bay pass defense has been fantastic at stopping opposing QBs. So far this season, they’re the only team to allow less than 1,000 passing yards. One major reason is they have been suffocating against subpar quarterbacks. Justin Fields had only 48 passing yards Week 2, Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe combined for 104 passing yards Week 4, and Zach Wilson had 99 passing yards last week. Next up for this defense is backup QB Taylor Heinicke and a banged-up Commanders' offense.
I am worried about Heinicke’s ability to air it out when he needs to, and Washington has gone full air raid in the second half when it has been losing this season. 68% of Washington’s passing yards this season have come in the second half. Because of that, I really like this first half play. I would give it a 5/5 confidence rating and would play it down to 99.5 pass yards.
Pick 2 of the Week:
Taylor Heinicke UNDER 108.5 Pass Yards in the First Half AND Aaron Jones OVER 27.5 Rush Yards in the First Half
Taylor Heinicke’s prop is my favorite for the week, so I added a correlated play for the Pick 2 of the week. The Commanders' rush defense is below average, but that is not why I am picking Aaron Jones here. Heinicke will be more likely to go under if the Packers are able to put together some long drives and control possession. The Packers have shown the ability to do that multiple times this season by successfully running with Jones and A.J. Dillon. If Aaron Jones hits, I almost guarantee that Heinicke hits too, and that is why I am playing them together as the Pick 2 of the week.
WATCH MORE: Heinicke Takes Command of Washington's Offense
