Oct. 2, 2022
“TE continues to be a minefield in fantasy, but really encouraged by David Njoku’s usage these last couple of games. He’ll be a waiver add in my waiver column.” – Zach Cohen (@ZachCohenFB) 3:09 PM EST
“Jahan Dotson is a perfect sell-high candidate. He’s good, but he’s clearly the Commanders’ WR3. His production isn’t sustainable right now.” – Zach Cohen (@ZachCohenFB) 2:40 PM EST
“Michael Gallup looking good with several changes of direction on that scramble drill TD. Looking confident in that knee, a great sign moving forward.” – Maxx Forde (@maxxforde) 2:36 PM EST
“Just took the Bills +13 as a LIVE bet. This is not a team that will fold anytime soon, the Josh Allen interception and Devin Singletary lost fumble are fluky enough that I think this offense rebounds enough to keep it semi-competitive.” – Josh Larky (@JLarkyTweets) 2:08 PM EST)
“Devin Singletary with a dropped screen pass. Two plays later, he loses a fumble on a rushing attempt. Will be curious if Buffalo sticks with him, or if they give Zack Moss and James Cook more opportunities for the rest of today.” – Josh Larky (@JLarkyTweets) 1:38 PM EST
“Chris Olave with a 32-yard contested catch to get the Saints within 10 yards of FG range. I’ve read a couple of articles about how the new rules are more friendly toward WRs with contested catches, and how a slighter WR like Olave can be much more effective in the current NFL environment. Another WR that fits this new archetype would be DeVonta Smith.” – Josh Larky (@JLarkyTweets) 12:35 PM EST
“More of a note with an eye towards next week, but with the news that Brian Robinson is expected back next week, you should go and get him in all but the shallowest of seasonal leagues if he’s available. Looking at roster % data across platforms, he isn’t available everywhere but is more than he should be. Based on the little we’ve seen so far, he’s got a different skill set than Antonio Gibson. Gibson looks better in space but Robinson has looked better between the tackles, and if fully healthy, that should lead to touches in valuable situations for fantasy.” – Maxx Forde (@maxxforde) 12:25 PM EST
“Noteworthy Week 3 snap rates:
89% – Romeo Doubs – moves ahead of Lazard in my rankings this week.
75% – Khalil
Herbert (after Montgomery’s injury)
74% – Devin Singletary – 67 routes run in the first three games; Baltimore has allowed 25 receptions to RB’s.
73% – Jeff Wilson – 21 snaps in the slot or out wide.
68% – Rashaad Penny – Rashaad Penny has had 4 career games in which he has seen 16+ carries, he has at least 135 yards rushing in all of them.
62% – Rhamondre Stevenson – GB allowing 5.3 yards-per-carry, third-most in NFL through three weeks.
60% – Dameon Pierce – Chargers have allowed 5.3 yards-per-carry (5th most) and 7.9 yards-per-reception (9th) to RB’s this season.
51% – Breece Hall – not likely to get as many targets with Zach Wilson returning, but I expect the game script to get him double-digit carries for the first time against Pittsburgh.” – Kev Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 12:20 PM EST
“Jaguars WR Zay Jones is out this week and so is Eagles CB Avonte Maddox. Maddox has played well as the nickel CB and was due to match up against Christian Kirk. It appears as though we should expect another double-digit target week for Kirk.” – Kev Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 12:03 PM EST
“Michael Gallup’s return will push CeeDee Lamb to the slot, and Washington has struggled against the slot this year.” – Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) 11:50 AM EST
“Panthers’ RB Christian McCaffrey, listed as questionable for Sunday due to a thigh injury, is likely to play vs. the Cardinals, per sources, but McCaffrey missed two practices this week. The Panthers are saying they still want to see McCaffrey during pregame warmups before making any decision about his status today. I would not be surprised if they sit him. If he does play, he is likely not at full strength.” – Kev Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 11:45 AM EST
“Khalil Herbert saw a 75% snap rate after David Montgomery’s injury in Week 3. In spite of his limited role the first two weeks, Herbert is still the RB9 in PPR scoring through three weeks. The Giants allow the second most yards per carry (5.6) in the NFL this season. Herbert is my RB9 this week. He would be higher, but Vegas has this game as the lowest scoring total this week.” – Kev Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 10:55 AM EST
“After two disappointing weeks, we should see Jonathan Taylor rebound and show us why he was drafted first overall in most drafts. Tennessee has surrendered 6.1 yards per carry over the first three games, the most in the NFL by a solid margin.” – Kev Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 10:45 AM EST
“In Week 3, Derrick Henry out-produced his performance from the previous two weeks combined. His 20 carries for 85 yards and a rushing TD aren’t very impressive, but his five receptions for 58 yards receiving are noteworthy. Henry will have to maintain those receptions if you’re looking for that RB1 upside. The Colts are allowing the fewest yards per carry in the NFL this year.” -Kev Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 10:24 AM EST
“Detroit will be without D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St.Brown, and D.J. Chark against the Seahawks. While Josh Reynolds gets the biggest bump in the rankings at WR, it’s Jamaal Williams (RB) that becomes a must-start. Williams should have already been in our line-ups, seeing that he is already the RB8 in PPR scoring, but today he should also see a significant uptick in touches. Seattle has allowed the second-most (394) rushing yards to running backs this season. Josh Reynolds (WR) is a viable flex play, While Kalif Raymond (WR), Craig Reynolds (RB), and Quintez Cephus (WR) become deep-dive DFS GPP options.” – Kev Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 9:12 AM EST
“With Jameis, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara all out, Taysom becomes an interesting play at TE. Of course, Dalton will draw the start behind center, but down all that offensive firepower and with the general weirdness we normally get out of London games, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see their Swiss Army Knife more involved. The floor remains nonexistent, so he’s far from a safe play, but that ceiling can’t be ignored with the TE eligibility.” – Maxx Forde (@maxxforde) 8:25 AM EST
Notable Weather Games
I don’t really care much about rain unless it’s excessive enough to see it impacting the field. Bears vs. 49ers on opening day is a good example of impactful rain. But I take note of wind once it gets to the 15 mph range.
- Bears at Giants (75% chance of rain; I’ll be in the lot for this one so I’ll update this specifically upon my arrival)
- Jaguars at Eagles (75% chance of rain)
- Bills at Ravens (70% chance of rain, strong winds)
- Rams at 49ers (moderate winds)
Those contests are all expected to have winds of at least 15 mph. Winds that breach 20 mph are when I start to genuinely become concerned and start thinking about under bets. — Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 1:27 a.m. ET
Last week was a tough week for survivor, and so is this one. It’s been made more difficult by a number of injuries in relevant games.
I’ve intended to take Detroit in at least one of my survivor entries this week since the schedule release in May. That said, the Lions are down their two best skill position players and I’d argue that DJ Chark, who is a late scratch, is their third. If you’re betting on the Lions you’re primarily betting on their offense, and that offense has been greatly reduced by injury this week. I still think the Lions win, but I’m going to pass in survivor now.
Green Bay is the natural chalk. I can paint a path to failure in just about any NFL game, but you’re going to need a lot to go wrong for the Packers to lose here. While the Packers will not be the only team that I take, if Aaron Rodgers and this Green Bay defense loses to Brian Hoyer at home, I can live with that decision.
Wind and rain add some level of variance to the Eagles against the ascending Jaguars. I’d prefer to take Philly is more of a slam dunk contest than this one. However, I may end up plugging the Eagles into at least one slot this week since I’m no longer taking Detroit.
The Chargers situation is what makes this a tough week. Even though he’s injured Justin Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the game and I have no real concerns in betting on him in any way. However, I do not trust Brandon Staley’s defense, and I do not trust Brandon Staley’s coaching staff. Similar to my stance on Philly, now that I’m crossing Detroit off in survivor I will likely take the Chargers in one of my entries.
The Steelers are another aggressive survivor option against the Jets this week. That’s not for me, but if you play pretty good survivor volume like I do, I wouldn’t try to talk you out of plugging in the Steelers in one of your entries. — Ryan Reynolds (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 1:01 a.m. ET