Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-5)
Opening Spread: Panthers +10.
Opening Game Total: 41.
Opening Team Totals: Panthers (15.5), Buccaneers (25.5).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened between the Panthers +9.5 and Panthers +10.
- This line has moved to Panthers +10.5 as of Wednesday evening, then it went all the way up to Panthers +13.5 in the wake of the Christian McCaffrey trade.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Panthers +10.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Panthers +11.
- This total opened at 41 points.
- This total has moved slightly down to 40.5 points.
Panthers: IR: S Jeremy Chinn. Questionable: QB Baker Mayfield, WR Laviska Shenault Jr., C Pat Elflein, DT Matt Ioannidis, LB Frankie Luvu, CB Donte Jackson, CB Jaycee Horn, CB CJ Henderson.
Buccaneers: IR: C Ryan Jensen. Questionable: WR Julio Jones, TE Cameron Brate, RG Shaq Mason, DL Akiem Hicks, CB Carlton Davis III, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting.
The Panthers Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
The Panthers have a below average offensive line. Tampa Bay has a fringe top-10 front, but Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles is well known for bringing extra pressure. The Buccaneers front has an edge in this contest, and Tampa’s pass rush could have a field day in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Panthers are 1-5 against the spread this season.
- The Panthers are 2-4 on overs this season.
- P.J. Walker is 3-8 against the spread in his career.
- P.J. Walker is 5-6 on overs in his career.
- Steve Wilks is 7-9-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Steve Wilks is 7-10 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Panthers are scoring 17.2 points per game, which is 27th in the league.
- Carolina is 29th in the league in yards passing per game and 26th in yards rushing.
- Christian McCaffrey is now a 49er. Expect D’Onta Foreman to take on the bulk of the carries in the Panthers backfield while Chuba Hubbard takes on the majority of the Panthers passing game role.
- Per TruMedia, D.J. Moore has played 237 snaps on the perimeter and 72 in the slot. Moore has been limited to 20 receptions and 204 yards receiving due to quarterback and coaching ineptitude through the first six games.
- The Buccaneers have allowed 17.2 points per game, which is fifth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bucs defense has allowed the 24th most yards rushing per game and the fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Tampa Bay has given up the 19th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Tampa Bay has given up the ninth most PPR points per game to slot receivers this year.
- The Buccaneers have allowed the 11th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Buccaneers Offense vs. Panthers Defense
The Buccaneers offensive line is very good at both tackles and right guard, but it has vulnerabilities at both left guard and center. As a whole, they are an average unit. The Panthers front is a slightly below average unit with talented Edge rusher Brian Burns and former No. 7 overall pick DT Derrick Brown. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw, though this is an interesting spot for Brown to show some ceiling and make an impact.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Buccaneers are 2-4 against the spread this season.
- The Buccaneers are 1-5 on overs this season.
- Tom Brady is 186-127-11 against the spread in his career.
- Tom Brady is 168-154-2 on overs in his career.
- Todd Bowles is 34-35-4 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Todd Bowles is 36-37 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Buccaneers are scoring 20.2 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- Tampa Bay is 6th in the league in yards passing per game and last in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Leonard Fournette is third among running backs in yards receiving.
- Mike Evans has only breached 100 yards receiving once this season, in a negative game script against the Chiefs in Week 4.
- Chris Godwin has had double-digit targets in two of the last three weeks.
- The Panthers have allowed 24.3 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Panthers have allowed the ninth-most yards rushing per game and the 13th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Carolina has allowed the 12th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Panthers have allowed the 26th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Panthers vs. Buccaneers
A bet on the Panthers is a bet on the first team to quit the 2022 campaign. P.J. Walker has an unbelievable 151.5 yards passing line on DraftKings right now. That figure sums up the current state of the Panthers. If you’re betting on Carolina, 13.5 points is a lot in an NFL game. Tampa Bay’s offense hasn’t exactly been crushing it, as we saw last week when they lost to the Steelers. The clearest path to a Panthers cover is the offense manufactures a scoring drive or two, while the defense holds Tom Brady’s offense to 20 points or less. My biggest concern with a Panthers bet is that Carolina’s offense is in danger of being shut out in this contest.
A bet on the Bucs is a bet on a get-well game against a Panthers team that has already surrendered their season. Panthers interim head coach Steve Wilks is in a brutal spot here, as he’s getting Tom Brady’s team coming off a loss, a few days after Carolina traded Christian McCaffrey. Keeping this team motivated with fourth string quarterback P.J. Walker at the helm is a really tall order. The Buccaneers defense has a shot at shutting out the Panthers in this spot. If Tom Brady’s offense can’t hang three or more touchdowns against this Panthers defense, in this particular spot, that’s truly concerning.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: The Panthers have waived the white flag on their season. I’m not banking on them losing every game through the rest of the year, but they are in danger of being shut out by Tampa Bay here. I’m definitely taking the Buccaneers in winner pools, and they will be right at the top in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I cannot bet on the 2022 Panthers going forward. I may take the Bucs at a value in an ATS tournament because the Christian McCaffrey trade certainly announced to the Panthers locker room that the season is over.
Survivor Pool: After last week’s loss in Pittsburgh, I could see the majority of the field being leery of playing the Buccaneers in survivor pools. If you still have Tampa Bay as an option in your survivor pool and you’re not using them here, plan ahead.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 21-9
Props 2022: 19-12