Betting

NFL Week 16 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Chargers vs. Colts

Chargers (8-6) at Colts (4-9-1)

Opening Spread: Colts +3.5

Opening Game Total: 47

Opening Team Totals: Colts (21.75) Chargers (25.25)

Weather: Indoors

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Colts +3.5
  • This line has moved to Colts +4.5
  • DraftKings Pick ’Em has the Colts +3.5
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Colts +4.5
  • This total opened at 47 points
  • This total has moved to 46.5 points

Notable Injuries

Colts: Out — RB Jonathan Taylor, TE Kylen Granson, CB Kenny Moore II

Chargers: None

Colts Offense vs. Chargers Defense

The Colts offensive line has been better since Jeff Saturday took over, but they are still in that average to slightly below-average range. The Colts’ interior is better than their pair of offensive tackles. Without Joey Bosa, the Chargers’ defensive front is a below-average unit. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw from a macro sense, with the Colts’ interior having an advantage.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Colts are 6-8 against the spread this season
  • The Colts are 5-9 on overs this season
  • Nick Foles is 33-35-1 against the spread in his career
  • Nick Foles is 34-34-1 on overs in his career
  • Jeff Saturday is 2-2 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
  • Saturday is 3-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach

Colts Offense

  • The Colts are scoring 17.5 points per game, which is 30th in the league
  • Indianapolis is 13th in the league in yards passing per game and 24th in yards rushing
  • The Colts are passing on 63% of their plays and running on 37% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
  • Nick Foles is taking over at quarterback for the Colts
  • Per the Edge, with Jonathan Taylor leaving last week’s contest early and not returning, Zack Moss had 24 carries and one target while Deon Jackson had 13 carries and one target
  • Michael Pittman has a 26.2% target share and a 27.9% air yards share
  • Parris Campbell has a 14.7% target share and a 14.6% air yards share
  • Alec Pierce has a 13.9% target share and a 28.9% air yards share
  • With Kylen Granson sidelined Mo Alie-Cox and Jelani Woods could each see some role expansion. Alie-Cox has one target in five of his last seven games. Woods had a Week 12, nine-target spike game against the Steelers, but has been otherwise relatively quite as a pass catcher this season

Chargers Defense

  • The Chargers have allowed 24.3 points per game, which is 26th in the league
  • Per The Edge, the Chargers have allowed the second-most yards rushing per game and the 25th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • Los Angeles has given up the 26th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • The Chargers have allowed the tenth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season

Chargers Offense vs. Colts Defense

I have the Chargers’ offensive line tiered in the back end, from average into slightly below-average territory. The Colts’ defensive front has played closer to their capabilities since Saturday took over as coach. I currently have the Colts’ defensive front tiered as a league-average unit. The Colts’ defensive front has a mild trench advantage in this contest.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Chargers are 8-5-1 against the spread this season
  • The Chargers are 6-8 on overs this season
  • Justin Herbert is 24-21-1 against the spread in his career
  • Justin Herbert is 25-21 on overs in his career
  • Brandon Staley is 16-14-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
  • Brandon Staley is 16-15 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach

Chargers Offense

  • The Chargers are scoring 22.3 points per game, which is 13th in the league
  • Los Angeles is third in the league in yards passing per game and 31st in yards rushing
  • The Chargers are passing on 70% of their plays and running on 30% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
  • Per the Edge, Austin Ekeler is 29th in the league in yards rushing with 692. Ekeler leads all running backs in yards receiving
  • Keenan Allen has a 19.9% target share and a 28.3% air yards share. Allen has nine or more targets in each of his last three games
  • Mike Williams has a 17.8% target share and a 32.5% air yards share. Williams has breached 100 yards receiving in four of his 10 games this season
  • Josh Palmer has an 18.5% target share with a 28.4% air yards share. Palmer has 11 total targets over the past two games. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were both active for those two contests
  • Gerald Everett has a 14.1% target share with a 12.9% air yards share

Colts Defense

  • The Colts have allowed 24.1 points per game, which is 25th in the league
  • Per The Edge, the Colts have allowed the 12th-most yards rushing per game and the sixth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • Indianapolis has given up the 28th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • The Colts have allowed the 19th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season

This Is What You’re Betting On

The Colts have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Given Miami’s loss to the Packers on Christmas Day, the Chargers have a little breathing room as the current No. 6 seed in the AFC. Even if the Chargers lose to the Colts, they would still be a wild card if the season ended after Monday Night Football. 

If You’re Betting on the Colts

The Colts are coming off the largest blown lead in the history of the NFL. That outcome has at least partially resulted in the pivot from Matt Ryan to Nick Foles at quarterback. Like Ryan, Foles is a statuesque pocket passer who’s capable of strong play when he’s kept comfortable. If you’re betting on the Colts, your expectation is that Foles plays well while Indianapolis relies on their running game against the Chargers’ bottom-of-the-barrel run defense. On the other side of the ball, the Colts gave up a 33-point lead to Kirk Cousins and his Vikings. How does the defense respond against Justin Herbert with his full complement of skill-position players? That uncertainty is your primary concern as a Colts bettor, while expecting a strong offensive performance out of Indianapolis is far from a sure thing.

If You’re Betting on the Chargers

If you’re betting on the Chargers you are primarily betting on Herbert’s offense. Herbert has played most of this season often without both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Allen and Williams have been active for each of the last two games, and the Chargers have knocked off the Dolphins and Titans over that span. While Herbert breached 300 yards passing in both of those games, the Chargers have only scored 40 total points over those two contests. That means the Chargers’ defense played well in both of those contests, holding their opponent below 20 points in each of those matchups. The Colts have a limited offense, so it wouldn’t be a major surprise if Los Angeles held their third opponent in a row below 20 points on Monday night. Your biggest concern as a Chargers bettor is that Indianapolis runs the ball effectively despite being down Jonathan Taylor, while the Colts’ defense plays well after their embarrassing meltdown last week.

Awards Market Ramifications: None.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Chargers in all of my winner pools, and I expect to be right in line with consensus on this contest in confidence pools.

Spread Pool: If this line was Chargers -3 I would be interested in a bet on Los Angeles. I have little interest in the current line, primarily because I have limited faith in the Colts.

Survivor Pool: I’d prefer to avoid this contest in survivor pools, but the Chargers are not an unreasonable option this late in the season.

Ryan’s Recent Betting Record

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 46-24

Props 2022: 51-31

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