Tennessee Titans (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
Opening Spread: Eagles -5.5
Opening Game Total: 44
Opening Team Totals: Eagles (24.75), Titans (19.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Eagles -5.5.
- This line has moved down to Eagles -4.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Eagles -5.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Eagles -4.5.
- This total opened at 44-points.
- This total has moved slightly up to 44.5-points.
Eagles: Out: S C.J. Gardner-Johnson; Questionable: WR DeVonta Smith
Titans: Questionable: WR Treylon Burks, C Ben Jones, RG Nate Davis, DT Jefferey Simmons, DT Denico Autry
The Eagles Offense vs. Titans Defense
The Eagles have a top-five level offensive line. At full strength the Titans have a top-ten level front, but both members of their premium defensive tackle duo are on the injury report. If Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry suit up for this game, this trench matchup is a relative draw. If they both miss, the Eagles’ offensive line will have a moderate advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Eagles are 6-5 against the spread this season.
- The Eagles are 7-4 on overs this season.
- Jalen Hurts is 19-21-1 against the spread in his career.
- Jalen Hurts is 21-20 on overs in his career.
- Nick Sirianni is 14-13-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Nick Sirianni is 17-11 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Eagles are scoring 27.5 points per game, good for third in the league.
- Philadelphia is 20th in the league in yards passing per game and third in yards rushing.
- The Eagles are passing on 54% of their snaps and running on 46%, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Jalen Hurts is third among quarterbacks in yards rushing with 597.
- Miles Sanders is fifth in the league in yards rushing with 900. Sanders has more than one target in five of his 11 games this season.
- A.J. Brown has a 28.5% target share and a 37.7% air yards share.
- DeVonta Smith has a 26.2% target share and a 30.8% air yards share.
- Jack Stoll has one target in each of his last two games.
- Per TruMedia, A.J. Brown has played 405 snaps on the perimeter and 191 in the slot.
- DeVonta Smith has played 511 snaps on the perimeter and 135 in the slot.
- The Titans have allowed 18.6 points per game, which is seventh in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Titans have allowed the third-fewest yards rushing per game and the ninth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Tennessee has given up the fifth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Tennessee has given up the most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Titans have allowed the seventh-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Titans have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
The Titans Offense vs. Eagles Defense
The Titans have a below average offensive line that is down its opening day left tackle and left guard. Tennessee’s starting center and right guard are on the injury report. The Eagles have a top-five level defensive front, and they could be getting back No. 13 overall pick Jordan Davis this week. The Eagles’ defense has a major advantage in the trenches. If Davis returns, that’s a major addition to the Eagles’ run defense, which is of great importance against The Big Dog Derrick Henry.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Titans are 8-3 against the spread this season.
- The Titans are 3-8 on overs this season.
- Ryan Tannehill is 71-68-3 against the spread in his career.
- Ryan Tannehill is 75-65-2 on overs in his career.
- Mike Vrabel is 41-34-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike Vrabel is 41-34-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Titans are scoring 19 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- Tennessee is 29th in the league in yards passing per game and 12th in yards rushing.
- The Titans are passing on 51% of their snaps and running on 49%, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Derrick Henry is second in the league in yards rushing with 1,048.
- Treylon Burks has at least six targets in each of his last three games while breaching 70 yards receiving in two of those contests. Burks has an 18.4% target share and a 25.5% air yards share this season.
- Robert Woods has a 21.5% target share and a 24.5% air yards share this year.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has an 11.9% target share with a 21.2% air yards share.
- Austin Hooper has 15 total targets over his last three games. Hooper has at least 30 yards receiving in five of his last six games.
- The Eagles have allowed 19.6 points per game, which is ninth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Eagles have allowed the 13th-most yards rushing per game and the 21st-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Philadelphia has given up the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Eagles have allowed the 26th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Eagles vs. Titans
A bet on the Eagles is a bet on the league’s best roster. Philadelphia has a number of positional group advantages against the Titans. The Eagles’ defense is in a very strong position this week, as their defensive front has a major advantage against Tennessee while the Titans’ below average group of pass-catchers could have a real tough day against the Eagles’ top-10 secondary. The Eagles have struggled against the run in recent weeks, which is a real concern when squaring off against The Big Dog Derrick Henry. That said, the Eagles’ secondary advantage could allow Philadelphia to be more aggressive against the run, while the potential return of monster defensive tackle Jordan Davis could bolster that unit.
The Eagles have the talent on offense to exploit the Titans’ very beatable secondary in what could be viewed as an A.J. Brown revenge game. If the Eagles play well, they have the raw materials to cover this spread against the Titans. Your biggest concern as an Eagles bettor is that The Big Dog still finds success while Ryan Tannehill does enough as a passer, primarily off play action, to keep this game close. If Tennessee gets that kind of offensive output and their top-10 defense plays well against a difficult opponent, that’s the path to a Titans cover, if not upset.
A bet on the Titans is a bet on Mike Vrabel’s physical, consistently overachieving football team. The Titans’ offense is largely dependent on Henry’s ability to be a difference maker, while Ryan Tannehill plays an efficient game as a passer. Tannehill occasionally has a production swell, like he did against the Packers a few weeks back, but I’m not expecting that against Philadelphia. The Titans have given up 20 or fewer points in each of their last eight games, which includes matchups against the Chiefs and Bengals. If you’re betting on the Titans, you’re betting on their defense at least meeting expectations against yet another difficult opponent. Your primary concern as a Titans bettor is a 24-13 type of loss, where Tennessee’s defense does its part, while the Eagles’ defense dominates this game.
Awards Market Ramifications: Hurts is an MVP contender. Henry is both a Comeback Player of the Year and Offensive Player of the Year candidate. Nick Sirianni is the current Coach of the Year favorite.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to be Eagles-heavy in winner pools, but I’m going to take the Titans in one of my pools as a differentiator option. I expect to be a little higher than consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I will take the Eagles or pass against the spread. The Titans are masters of exceeding expectations, but their offense has a very uphill battle in this contest.
Survivor Pool: The Eagles have a number of playable matchups coming in survivor pools, which makes playing them against the Titans unnecessary in most situations.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 38-22
Props 2022: 39-23
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