Miami Dolphins (8-3) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
Opening Spread: San Francisco -3.5
Opening Game Total: 46.5
Opening Team Totals: 49ers (25), Dolphins (21.5)
Weather: Outdoors, rain expected
The Line Report
- This line opened between 49ers -3.5 and 49ers -4.
- This line has settled at 49ers -3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the 49ers -3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the 49ers -4.
- This total opened at 46.5-points.
- This total remains at 46.5-points.
49ers: Out: RB Elijah Mitchell; Questionable: WR Deebo Samuel, LT Trent Williams, RG Spencer Burford
Dolphins: Out: RT Austin Jackson; Doubtful: LT Terron Armstead
The 49ers Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
The 49ers have a fringe top-ten offensive line led by elite left tackle Trent Williams. If Williams’ injury situation results in his missing this contest, consider the 49ers’ offensive line as a backside of average unit. The Dolphins have a middle-of-the-pack defensive front with no current injury concerns. This trench matchup is a relative draw if Williams is active. If he’s not, that’s a significant downgrade for the 49ers in the run game, and Miami would then have an advantage on the outside.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The 49ers are 6-5 against the spread this season.
- The 49ers are 4-7 on overs this season.
- Jimmy Garoppolo is 44-28-1 against the spread in his career.
- Jimmy Garoppolo is 37-34-2 on overs in his career.
- Kyle Shanahan is 45-46-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kyle Shanahan is 45-45-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The 49ers are scoring 22.6 points per game, which is 15th in the league.
- San Francisco is 13th in the league in yards passing per game and 11th in yards rushing.
- I treat the 2022 49ers’ offense in two segments. Before the addition of Christian McCaffrey, and after. For as long as McCaffrey is active, player usage while he’s been on the field is the only usage that matters to me for 49ers skill position players.
- Per the Edge, Christian McCaffrey has only breached 40 yards rushing once in his five games as a 49er. McCaffrey has double-digit carries in three of those games. McCaffrey has 28 total targets over his last four games, with at least six targets in each of those games. McCaffrey is second among running backs in yards receiving.
- With Elijah Mitchell sidelined, Tyrion Davis-Price, Tevin Coleman, and Jordan Mason could each see some role expansion.
- Deebo Samuel has at least six targets in each of the four games he’s played with Christian McCaffrey. He’s only breached 50 yards receiving in one of those contests.
- Brandon Aiyuk has 36 total targets over the five game’s he’s played with Christian McCaffrey. Aiyuk has breached 80 yards receiving in three of those five contests.
- Jauan Jennings had seven targets last week, just the second time this season that he’s had more than four targets in a game.
- George Kittle has 26 total targets over the five games he’s played with Christian McCaffrey. Kittle has breached 80 yards receiving in two of those contests.
- Per TruMedia, George Kittle has played 342 snaps as an in-line tight end, 31 on the perimeter, and 116 in the slot.
- The Dolphins have allowed 23.3 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Dolphins have allowed the second-fewest yards rushing per game and the 12th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Miami has given up the 16th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Dolphins have allowed the sixth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Dolphins have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends and the eighth-most to those lined up in the slot.
The Dolphins Offense vs. 49ers Defense
The Dolphins have a fringe top-ten offensive line when they are at full strength. Entering this contest right tackle Austin Jackson has already been ruled out while premium left tackle Terron Armstead is doubtful. If Armstead misses this contest as expected, the Dolphins will have a below average offensive line this week. The 49ers’ front on the other hand is getting back its second-best player in Arik Armstead. With Armstead back the 49ers have a top-ten, bordering on top-five, defensive front. If Terron Armstead misses this contest for Miami, the 49ers have a major advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Dolphins are 6-5 against the spread this season.
- The Dolphins are 5-6 on overs this season.
- Tua Tagovailoa is 20-11-1 against the spread in his career.
- Tua Tagovailoa is 13-19 on overs in his career.
- Mike McDaniel is 6-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike McDaniel is 5-6 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Dolphins are scoring 25.6 points per game, good for sixth in the league.
- Miami is second in the league in yards passing per game and 28th in yards rushing.
- The Dolphins have not lost a game that Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished this season.
- Per the Edge, since the acquisition of Jeff Wilson, he and Raheem Mostert have both been active twice. In the first contest they roughly split opportunities. In the second contest Wilson had 17 carries and five targets while Mostert had eight carries and four targets.
- Tyreek Hill leads the league in receptions (87), he’s second in yards receiving (1233), he’s fifth in target share (30.2%), and he’s ninth in air yards share (39.9%).
- Jaylen Waddle has 56 receptions for 963 yards receiving with a 22% target share and a 29.6% air yards share.
- Trent Sherfield has five targets in each of his last two games.
- Mike Gesicki has four or fewer targets in each of his last four games. Gesicki has more than four targets in a game twice this year.
- The 49ers have allowed 15.7 points per game, which is the best in the league.
- Per The Edge, the 49ers have allowed the fewest yards rushing per game and the 25th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- San Francisco has given up the 11th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The 49ers have allowed the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in 49ers vs. Dolphins
What a great game between two of the higher interest teams in the league. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel was the 49ers’ offensive coordinator last season. McDaniel had been with Kyle Shanahan across four different teams since the 2011 season before taking the Dolphins job this year. These two head coaches couldn’t be more familiar with each other, and they are both at the controls of supremely talented, title contending rosters.
Most championship teams can win games in multiple styles. The 49ers are one of those teams, as they pair a high-performing defense with an offense that is absolutely loaded with talent. Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown nine touchdowns to just one interception since the 49ers acquired Christian McCaffrey via trade. The 49ers have a premium running back, a top-ten wide receiver duo, a top-three tight end, and a top-ten offensive line. As long as Garoppolo continues to play relatively turnover-free football, the 49ers have the tools to win a shootout paired with a defense that has given up 20 or more points just twice this season.
If you’re betting on the 49ers, you can build that bet on San Francisco beating the Dolphins by four or more points in a relative shootout. Or, you can build that bet around the 49ers’ defense directly handing the Dolphins their first loss in a month and a half. Your biggest concern as a 49ers bettor is that the Dolphins’ dynamic duo of elite speedsters in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle break San Francisco’s rock solid defense. Mike McDaniel’s innovative play-calling and Tua’s high-end accuracy can realistically reach that outcome, with their biggest challenge being their line play disadvantage.
A bet on the Dolphins is a bet on Mike McDaniel’s dynamic offense. Hill and Waddle are not only the best wide receiver duo in the league, but I’m not sure a better pair of elite speedsters has ever played together. The two of them together are a nightmare for defensive coordinators, which is further exacerbated by McDaniel’s innovative play-calling and Tagovailoa’s pinpoint accuracy. The Dolphins’ defense is still down high-quality cornerback Byron Jones, but the acquisition of Bradley Chubb gives Miami a good pass rush with several quality players on the back end. If you’re betting on Miami you are primarily betting on the ceiling of this offense, but you can potentially get more out of the defense today than you could have a month ago. Your biggest concern as a Dolphins bettor is that they will likely be down both of their starting offensive tackles against the 49ers’ premium front. We can reasonably count on McDaniel to try and mitigate this disadvantage through play-calling, but that issue reduces some of Miami’s options on offense.
Awards Market Ramifications: Tua Tagovailoa is an MVP candidate. Mike McDaniel is a Coach of the Year contender. Tyreek Hill is an Offensive Player of the Year contender. Christian McCaffrey is a fringe Comeback Player of the Year candidate. Nick Bosa is a Defensive Player of the Year contender. I’ve written up every game this season, and no contest has more awards market ramifications than this one.
Winner/Confidence Pool: This game is being treated as a near even split in mainstream winner pools. I like taking contrarian favorites in this format, so I will be 49ers-heavy in winner pools. I might be slightly higher than consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: On Betting the NFL this week I said that oddsmakers are freely inviting Dolphins bets, and those sorts of actions always give me some pause. I’m able to get to a 49ers cover in this contest, so I will either take San Francisco or pass against the spread this week.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 38-22
Props 2022: 39-23