Analysis
11/13/22
8 min read
NFL Week 10 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Commanders vs. Eagles
Monday Night Football: Washington Commanders (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-0)
Opening Spread: Eagles -10.5.
Opening Game Total: 44.5.
Opening Team Totals: Eagles (27.5), Commanders (17).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Eagles -10.5.
- This line remains at Eagles -10.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Eagles -10.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Eagles -11.
- This total opened at 44.5 points.
- This total remains at 44.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Eagles
Out: Edge Derek Barnett, DT Jordan Davis, CB Avonte Maddox.
Commanders
Out: QB Carson Wentz, RB J.D. McKissic, C Chase Roullier, Edge Chase Young, LB David Mayo, LB Cole Holcomb.
Questionable: LG Andrew Norwell, C Tyler Larsen.
The Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense
The Eagles' offensive line is a top-five caliber group. Washington’s front four is a fringe top-10 unit with edge Chase Young sidelined. This is a strength vs. strength type of trench matchup where the Eagles have a slight advantage.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Eagles are 5-3 against the spread this season.
- Philadelphia is 5-3 on overs this season.
- Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is 18-19-1 against the spread in his career.
- Hurts is 19-19 on overs in his career.
- Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is 13-11-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Sirianni is 15-10 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Eagles Offense
- Philadelphia is scoring 28.1 points per game, good for second in the league.
- The Eagles are eighth in the league in yards passing per game and sixth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Hurts is seventh among quarterbacks with 326 yards rushing.
- RB Miles Sanders is seventh in the league in yards rushing with 656. Sanders hasn’t had more than three targets in a game this season.
- WR A.J. Brown is 15th in the league in receptions (43), he’s sixth in yards receiving (718) and he’s tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns with six. Brown is sixth in the league in target share (30.1%) and air yards share (42.6%).
- Brown has 16 receptions, 311 yards receiving and three touchdowns over two major spike games against the Lions and Steelers.
- WR Devonta Smith has two games with double-digit targets and four with seven targets or more. Smith has four games with five targets or less.
- WR Quez Watkins has not exceeded four targets in a game this season. Apart from his 69 yards receiving on opening day, Watkins has 25 yards receiving or less in his six other contests.
- TE Dallas Goedert is fourth among tight ends in target share (21.4%) and 13th in air yards share (14.7%).
- Per TruMedia, Goedert is sixth among all pass catchers in yards after the catch with 348.
- Brown has played 300 snaps on the perimeter and 132 in the slot.
- Smith has played 383 snaps on the perimeter and 95 in the slot.
- Watkins has played 82 snaps on the perimeter and 223 in the slot.
Commanders Defense
- The Commanders have allowed 21.3 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
- Washington held Hurts to 20 yards rushing on nine carries earlier this year. However, Bears QB Justin Fields had 88 yards rushing on 12 carries against Washington in mid-October.
- Per The Edge, the Commanders have allowed the 23rd most yards rushing per game and the 23rd most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Washington has given up the seventh most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Washington has given up the fifth most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Commanders have allowed the third-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Defense
Washington has a below-average offensive line. The Eagles have a top-five caliber front. The Eagles' defense has a significant advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Commanders are 4-4-1 against the spread this season.
- Washington is 3-6 on overs this season.
- Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke is 10-16-1 against the spread in his career.
- Heinicke is 9-18 on overs in his career.
- Commanders coach Ron Rivera is 93-84-5 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Rivera is 90-90-2 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Commanders Offense
- Washington is scoring 17.7 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- The Commanders are 20th in the league in yards passing per game and 22nd in yards rushing.
- Washington is 2-1 with Heinicke with their one loss coming by three points against Minnesota last week.
- With J.D. McKissic sidelined last week, Brian Robinson had 13 carries and two targets. Antonio Gibson had 11 carries and three targets.
- Per the Edge, Gibson ran 19 routes to Robinson’s nine last week.
- WR Terry McLaurin has at least eight targets in each of his last three games.
- WR Curtis Samuel started the year with more than 30 targets in the first three games. Over his last three games, he has 16 total targets.
- Both McLaurin and Samuel have at least 50 yards receiving in each of the last three games.
- Rookie WR Jahan Dotson hasn’t played since Oct. 2 in Dallas, but he’s now off the injury report. Dotson had four receiving touchdowns over the first four games, but he only breached 50 yards receiving one time.
- TE Logan Thomas returned to action last week against Minnesota, where he failed to catch any of his three targets.
Eagles Defense
- The Eagles have allowed 16.9 points per game, which is fourth in the league.
- Per The Edge, Philadelphia has allowed the 16th most yards rushing per game and the 24th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- The Eagles have given up the 27th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Philadelphia has allowed the 24th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Eagles vs. Commanders
The Eagles beat the Commanders 24-8 in Washington back in Week 3. The game wasn’t as close as the score would indicate.
A bet on the Eagles is a bet on an 8-0 team that’s better than Washington at every position group on both offense and defense. The Eagles have top-five lines on both sides of the ball, a top-10 secondary and a top-10 group of pass-catchers. Sanders is seventh in the league in yards rushing, and Hurts might win the MVP if the season ended today.
On top of all that, Sirianni is the Coach of the Year favorite. That’s what you’re betting on when you’re betting on the Eagles. There’s a real path to the Eagles dominating this game in every phase, just as they did earlier this season. There’s also now mounting pressure on the undefeated Eagles, as their success is creating new expectations. You need Philadelphia to play down, and Washington to play up for this to be a close game. Ten-plus points is a lot in an NFL game, so a back door cover is a concern for Eagles bettors even in a game that Philadelphia controls from bell to bell.
A bet on the Commanders is a bet on an inconsistent team that’s played its best football of the season during the last month. From a pure football standpoint, Washington has several good players at important positions, but they don’t have any talent advantages against the Eagles' loaded roster.
If you’re betting on the Commanders, you’re banking on a scrappy game against a superior divisional opponent. Your biggest concern as a Commanders’ bettor is that Philadelphia continues to roll while Washington struggles on both sides of the ball, just like they did in their last meeting.
Awards Market Ramifications: Jalen Hurts is an MVP favorite. Nick Sirianni is the Coach of the Year favorite.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Eagles in all of my winner pools, and I will have them ranked right with consensus in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I’m going to avoid this game against the spread.
Survivor Pool: Philadelphia is a viable survivor pool option this week as the biggest home favorite on the Week 10 slate.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 30-15
Props 2022: 31-16
WATCH MORE: Why Are Teams Running Better in 2022?
