Cash and Carry? Not So Fast for Current NFL Running Back Market
Analysis 6/29/23
The running back landscape has changed drastically over the past several years, and teams are using different strategies to pay the position.
This offseason alone, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette were released and remain free agents. Aaron Jones took a $5 million pay cut to stay with the Green Bay Packers. Austin Ekeler, who had one year and $6.25 million left on his contract, communicated his desire for a new deal and was given permission to seek a trade. However, he quickly realized no team was willing to step up, and the Los Angeles Chargers added $1.75 million in incentives to his contract to please him.
Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley and Tony Pollard were franchise tagged and have yet to secure long-term contracts. Barkley and Jacobs have publicly expressed their frustrations with the negotiation process. Kareem Hunt, who has been productive in the run and pass games, has been a free agent since March without much action.
So what’s going on?
Matter of Supply and Demand
Former NFL executive Joe Banner stressed that the position is still crucial for a team’s success. However, supply far outweighs demand. There are too many capable running backs coming into the league every year, and they’re able to produce quickly. Although they may not be immediate superstars, they do more than enough and aren’t getting paid much during their rookie contracts. The 2022 NFL Draft is a perfect example of this:
Player | Team | Drafted | 2022 stats (inc. playoffs) | Avg. Salary |
Breece Hall | Jets | Round 2, Pick 36 | 681 total yards, 5 TDs | $2.25M |
Kenneth Walker | Seahawks | Round 2, Pick 41 | 1,281 total yards, 10 TDs | $2.11M |
James Cook | Bills | Round 2, Pick 63 | 739 total yards, 4 TDs | $1.45M |
Rachaad White | Buccaneers | Round 3, Pick 91 | 848 total yards, 3 TDs | $1.28M |
Brian Robinson | Commanders | Round 3, Pick 98 | 857 total yards, 3 TDs | $1.26M |
Dameon Pierce | Texans | Round 4, Pick 107 | 1,104 total yards, 5 TDs | $1.12M |
Tyler Allgeier | Falcons | Round 5, Pick 151 | 1,174 total yards, 4 TDs | $998K |
Isiah Pacheco | Chiefs | Round 7, Pick 251 | 1,222 total yards, 6 TDs | $934K |
Jaylen Warren | Steelers | Undrafted | 593 total yards, 1 TD | $857K |
Zonovan Knight | Jets | Undrafted | 400 total yards, 1 TD | $787K |
Jordan Mason | 49ers | Undrafted | 270 total yards, 1 TD | $853K |
All these running backs were taken after the first round and quickly came in and showed promise. Breece Hall was on track to become the Offensive Rookie of the Year had he not torn his ACL. Isiah Pacheco, who was drafted in the seventh round, proved to be a vital contributor to the Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl–winning team.
Most importantly, all earn significantly less than what other veteran running backs make or are demanding in their future contracts. Simply put: Running backs can be found anywhere and everywhere.
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Banner explained this was true during his time as Philadelphia Eagles president. They had four highly talented running backs, starting with Ricky Watters and Duce Staley, then Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy. All four played crucial roles in the Eagles’ success, yet the team never invested significant amounts of money in those players or used first-round picks on them.
“The quantity of talent exceeds the demand for talent,” Banner said. “There are a lot of teams right now with two or three really good running backs who could step right in and the team continues to perform well. You can’t say that about any other position. No team can lose two or three guards and still operate perfectly fine. But it could happen with running backs.”
Spending Has Dried Up
The Eagles have continued to operate the same way since Banner left, including this past offseason when they allowed Miles Sanders to leave in free agency for a four-year, $25.4 million contract with the Carolina Panthers. Philadelphia signed Rashaad Penny to a one-year, $1.35 million contract, and they also traded a 2025 fourth-round pick to the Detroit Lions for D’Andre Swift.
The running back contract situation has gone far past the Eagles, though; realizing the situation, teams across the league have been reluctant to pay running backs big money over the past couple of years. While other position markets reset every offseason, running back has not moved since Christian McCaffrey’s deal in 2020. In fact, the top five contracts entering the offseason were signed in 2020 or before.
Player | Contract | Average Value | Year signed |
Christian McCaffrey | 4 years, $64M | $16M | 2020 |
Ezekiel Elliott | 6 years, $90M | $15M | 2019 |
Alvin Kamara | 5 years, $75M | $15M | 2020 |
Dalvin Cook | 5 years, $63M | $12.6M | 2020 |
Derrick Henry | 4 years, $50M | $12.5M | 2020 |
Are There Solutions for the Position?
The current collective bargaining agreement (CBA), which runs through 2030, works against running backs. They begin their careers with low wages, and teams have the option to apply the franchise tag for an additional two years after the rookie deal ends. By then, most running backs already are on the back end of their careers and teams are looking for fresher legs.
I reached out to a few running back agents to see if there are any solutions for the position to get paid comparably to other positions or if this trend continue.
One idea that was brought up was to make running backs eligible for new deals after just two years in the league.
“This was the rule for all positions prior to the 2011 CBA,” one agent explained. “By making that type of a change, running backs who prove to be elite immediately would have a chance to negotiate early when their legs are still fresh, and the teams might be forced to do something or be left in an awkward spot.”
The last running back to leave his team in a tough position was Elliott when he stayed away from the Dallas Cowboys after playing three years. Elliott ultimately signed a six-year, $90 million contract that included rolling guarantees. He knew his value to that team and held strong until Dallas gave in — which it did. Elliott would have had a case to pursue a new deal after two years in the league considering his early success, but drafted players aren’t eligible for new deals until after their third year.
Another agent mentioned running backs should push for their own bargaining unit.
Whatever the case may be, making any change would require bargaining between the league and the players’ union, and getting both sides to make a deal is not straightforward. If the league agrees to something with the union, then the union will need to give something back in future negotiations.
Several front office members I spoke to do not believe there will be a solution, at least not in the near future.
“This is the current state of the position, and unless you have a truly special running back, of which there is only a handful, it is difficult for me to envision teams investing huge money with significant guarantees in a single player,” an AFC executive said.