Breakdowns

Top Havoc Rate Mismatch for Week 14

Havoc Rate is a statistic that attempts to capture an offense’s ability to prevent negative plays and a defense’s ability to create negative plays. We have altered and expanded the traditional formula to include third and fourth down failures/stops.

Havoc Rate Leaderboards

The Offense and Defense leaderboards heading into Week 14 (as well as their rates expressed in standard deviations) are as follows:

Week 14

Using Havoc, what are the projected Week 14 mismatches? The top 10:

Saints Defense vs. Eagles Offense

Philadelphia head coach Doug Pederson finally made the call this week to bench Carson Wentz in favor of rookie Jalen Hurts. Unfortunately for Hurts, he now faces a red-hot Saints defense that has climbed to second in the NFL in Defensive Havoc Created (50.3%). The struggling Eagles’ offense ranks 32nd in Offensive Havoc Allowed (minus-47.8%), largely due to Wentz’s inability to avoid negative plays. The Eagles will need Hurts to break Wentz’s bad habits to find success this week. Hurts has shown a few encouraging signs that suggest he can fare better than Wentz would have this week.

Perhaps the most important is the pressure matchup. The Saints defense ranks fifth in the NFL in Pressure Rate, while the Eagles offense ranks 30th. However, the offensive line may not be the issue, because according to ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate, the Eagles rank a respectable 10th. The real issue may be stemming from Wentz’s tendency to hold onto the ball:

Time to Throw (Next Gen Stats): Carson Wentz – 3.15 seconds, 33rd out of 39 qualifiers

Pocket Time (ProFootballReference): Carson Wentz – 2.6 seconds, 30th out of 33 qualifiers

While Hurts only has 15 attempts on the season, he has demonstrated a much quicker trigger that the Eagles will need to negate the Saints pass rush:

Pocket Time (ProFootballReference): Jalen Hurts – 2.1 seconds, would be T-2 among full season qualifiers

Will Pederson create a game plan that will emphasize Hurts getting the ball out quickly? If he does not, Hurts may be in for a long day in his first career start.

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