Breakdowns

Big Play Index Predicts Two Shocking Week 13 Upsets

Big Play Index Predicts Two Shocking Week 13 Upsets

The 33rd Team introduced the Big Play Index last season to show how NFL teams stack up in terms of big plays produced and big plays allowed.

The Big Play Index has a new and improved outlook with the help of Marc Trestman. When Trestman coached in the NFL, his definition of a “Big Play” was a run of 10-plus yards and/or a pass of 16-plus yards. Ultimately, BPI correlates the ability to create explosive plays, while also limiting the opponent, and the success of the team (based on wins).

BPI Mismatch of the week:

Colts vs Texans

The biggest mismatch of the week is not due to offensive superiority, it is simply due to how poor the Texans are on offense. The second least explosive team in the NFL on offense is the New Orleans Saints with 75 Big Plays on offense. The worst, the Texans, have just 49 total offensive big plays. Four teams have more big runs for than the Texans have total big plays, while 24 teams have more big plays through the air than the Texans have total plays. The Colts are the 8th best big play offense. The difference between these two offenses in explosive nature are astounding.

Upsets of the Week:

Giants over Dolphins

The Giants have been slightly better than the Dolphins in offensive big plays for and defensive big plays against. The Dolphins run defense has been on par with the Giants, but where the Dolphins have been exploited more, than the Giants is through the air. The Giants are the 13th most explosive offense through the air (tied with the Dolphins). The game should come down to which secondary you trust more against explosives. The BPI would suggest the Giants.

Chargers over Bengals

Aside from the Raiders and Eagles, a BPI favorite all year has been the Chargers. Their big play passing game (3rd in the NFL) draws the attention of the upset watch this week against a Bengals offense that has been shockingly middle of the pack in big plays. Being very similar on defense (the Bengals have a slightly worse pass defense), the game should come down to which offense can be more explosive. In this case, the BPI will take the Chargers.