Analysis
11/24/21
2 min read
Big Play Index Hints At Underdog Rams Winning at Lambeau on Sunday
The 33rd Team introduced the Big Play Index last season to show how NFL teams stack up in terms of big plays produced and big plays allowed.
The Big Play Index has a new and improved outlook with the help of Marc Trestman. When Trestman coached in the NFL, his definition of a “Big Play” was a run of 10-plus yards and/or a pass of 16-plus yards. Ultimately, BPI correlates the ability to create explosive plays, while also limiting the opponent, and the success of the team (based on wins).
Week 12 BPI Mismatch:
Bills vs Saints: The Bills are the second best team in the Big Play Index so far this season due to their prolific defensive performances. They have allowed the least number of big plays including the least amount of big passes allowed by 7 (Raiders second).
The Saints are middle of the pack defensively, but 3rd worst offensively due to their issues getting the ball down the field through the air. They have also struggled as of late on the ground without Alvin Kamara. With the Bills strength on defense and the weakness of the Saints defense.
Potential BPI Upset:
Rams over Packers: The Big Play Index slightly favors the underdog Rams over the Packers this weekend in the best game of the week. Both have a much better defense in terms of stopping Big Plays relative to how good their offense is at creating them.
The Packers have allowed just 66 big plays, good for 3rd in the NFL, while the Rams have allowed just 71, good for 6th. The difference in BPI stems from the Rams being slightly better on offense. The Rams have generated the 12th most explosives on offense, while the Packers have just the 18th.
It will be a close matchup amongst two of the top teams in the NFC, but the BPI gives the Rams a slight edge.
