Week 1 is quickly approaching, and PrizePicks already has lines posted.
Playing lines this far ahead inherently comes with more variance, which also means more risk. There is still plenty of time for players to get injured, suspended, or any other news to drop that could lead to the offense changing before the first game starts. There is enough value in the lines below to play them, but I am going to be playing them light. Also, the lines are posted in order in which I like them, with the last line being my favorite.
Tua Tagovailoa OVER 220.5 Passing Yards
Mike McDaniel starts the season off with one of the best defenses in the NFL from 2021 when he welcomes New England to Miami.
The Patriots gave up a suffocating 187 pass yards per game last season, and Tua has not faired well with them in his 3 games against them. Tua did not have Tyreek Hill or Mike McDaniel for any of those games, though. Two of the highest yardage totals for the 49ers last season was Week 8 against the Bears and Week 18 against the Rams, in which Jimmy Garoppolo had 322 and 316 passing yards, respectively. I expect the Tua hype to be real and would bet this line over up to 240.5 pass yards.
Jonathan Taylor OVER 100.5 Rushing Yards
In the 10 games where the Colts had at least a four-point lead at halftime, Taylor averaged 11.1 rushes in the second half. He averaged 74.3 rush yards with those 11.1 carries. He averaged 47.5 rushing yards in the first half of every game last season. The Colts are currently favored by 8 against the Texans at most sportsbooks. I will let you do that math while I bet the over on this line up to 110.5.
Deebo Samuel OVER 54.5 Receiving Yards
Usually when I find a line I like, I look for reasons why the line is different than I expect. With this line, I have absolutely no idea why it’s down at 54.5 receiving yards. My only guess is PrizePicks and the sportsbooks are assuming Trey Lance will struggle and George Kittle will take opportunities away from Deebo. Even if those concerns are legit, 54.5 is way too low for Deebo. I would bet this over up to 65.5 receiving yards.
I will continue to put out more picks as more lines are posted. With the limited lines posted, though, these are the ones I feel the most confident in.