Betting
10/14/24
8 min read
2024 NFL Future Bets: Odds, Picks For Major Awards
With enough data available through six weeks of the season, there are some appealing bets to be made on NFL award futures.
This isn't a list of the players most likely to win certain wards. Instead, it looks at which bets present the best value in terms of how the market is set up. Someone who might have long odds heading into Week 7 could catch fire in the coming weeks and find themselves right at the front of their respective award race.
Let's take a look at the best value for future awards for each major award.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
NFL Future Award Bets to Make
MVP: Josh Allen (+1100)
Josh Allen tends to find himself on the outside looking in when it comes to national accolades. He has just two Pro Bowl selections and a second-team All-Pro nod in 2020.
That might change this year.
Allen has the fifth-best odds to win MVP right now, but his numbers suggest he could be in line for a career year. Heading into Monday Night Football, he has thrown eight touchdowns and zero interceptions with a 102.8 passer rating, which would be the second-highest of his career behind his All-Pro season in 2020.
Meanwhile, Allen continues to make plays with his legs, averaging 6.2 yards per rushing attempt with 160 yards and two touchdowns. His scrambling ability also allows him to make superhuman plays on the run like this pass.
Josh Allen pic.twitter.com/cZXGKO5mGJ
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) September 11, 2024
It's not just the stats but also the narrative around Allen that will help him get some MVP buzz. This was supposed to be a down year after the Bills lost star wideout Stefon Diggs, along with fellow wideout Gabe Davis and center Mitch Morse.
Instead, we're seeing a version of Allen who is doing a much better job of taking care of the football to keep the Bills offense moving. He's not shying away from throwing downfield, either. His average depth of target of 9.4 yards is right in line with the rest of his career.
Allen carried the Bills to five straight regular season wins to end the 2023 season, and with the third-easiest remaining schedule this year, he has a chance to take over again on his way to being an MVP frontrunner.
Offensive Player of the Year: Derrick Henry (+140)
Betting on a favorite isn't the most exciting thing to do. However, there isn't another player right now that's coming close to doing what Derrick Henry is doing for the Baltimore Ravens.
In fact, Henry is doing stuff that no other aging running back has ever done. He leads the NFL in carries (119), rushing yards (704), and rushing touchdowns (8), all while averaging an absurd 5.9 yards per carry. According to Pro Football Focus, he's third in the NFL with 21 missed tackles forced, second with 14 runs of 10-plus yards, and first in both yards after contact (405) and breakaway yards (344).
It's not just runs up the gut, either. Henry is putting games away with patience, vision, and speed on tosses to the outside.
Toss left to Derrick Henry has been the Ravens' finishing move the past two weeks. pic.twitter.com/6iaa0DwIPj
— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) October 14, 2024
All of this is happening while Lamar Jackson pushes to be in the MVP conversation. It seems like an almost impossible pace to keep up with, but no other running back is coming close to Henry's production through six weeks.
Henry brings a new identity to the Ravens offense, and his dominance should help him run away in the Offensive Player of the Year award race.
Defensive Player of the Year: Nick Bosa (+1700)
This was Aidan Hutchinson's award to run away with, but now that he's out for the rest of the season, another pass rusher might end up winning this award.
Nick Bosa's traditional numbers aren't too exciting. Through six games, he has three sacks, one forced fumble, and an interception. However, he's second in the league with 35 pressures, which means that more sacks could be coming in the future.
Nick Bosa started spamming all of the buttons once that ball got into his hands pic.twitter.com/RcumZsXpfi
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 7, 2024
It's not just that Bosa could be getting more sacks going forward, but the narrative that could unfold if he starts to take over. The San Francisco 49ers are just 3-3, and they're under a weekly microscope by national media outlets after coming into the season with Super Bowl aspirations.
Some big performances from Bosa on the national stage could help him generate significant momentum in the Defensive Player of the Year race, and 17-to-1 odds seem like awfully good value for a player who won the award back in 2022.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Caleb Williams (+144)
A couple of weeks ago, it looked like Jayden Daniels would run away with this award. Now, Caleb Williams is storming back to make it a real battle for the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Williams is getting better each week and is coming off the best game of his career in the blowout win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He completed 79.3 percent of his passes for 226 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception in the win. In the last three games, he has seven touchdowns and just one interception.
#Bears
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) October 14, 2024
QB Caleb Williams.
Hi-Lo concepts vs. JAX.
Seeing it fast. And driving the ball. High RPM thrower. pic.twitter.com/UVOHz5dJux
The Bears offense is starting to find its identity, and it's allowing Williams to cook. A three-game win streak suddenly has Chicago sitting at 4-2 and in the thick of the NFC North race, with a playoff berth being a legitimate possibility.
Daniels is still the favorite, and it's understandable with his production and dual-threat ability. However, the preseason hype of being the No. 1 overall pick, along with the week-over-week improvement, will likely help Williams get back in front of the OROY race in the next few games.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Quinyon Mitchell (+750)
Jared Verse was the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Month for September, making him the early-season favorite to win this award. However, it won't take much for Quinyon Mitchell to take the lead.
While he has yet to register an interception, Mitchell is playing at a high level on the Philadelphia Eagles defense. According to PFF, he's allowed a reception on just 55.6 percent of his targets, with zero touchdowns allowed and six pass breakups.
Mitchell nearly had his first career interception on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns, but teammate Chauncey Gardner-Johnson got in the way.
Quinyon Mitchell almost had his first career interception.
— ☆𝘏𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘦𝘙𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘎𝘖𝘋☆ (@JalenCarterDPOY) October 13, 2024
C.J. Gardner-Johnson broke it up.#FlyEaglesFly #Eagles pic.twitter.com/w6XMgE1enQ
Mitchell was a shutdown cornerback at Toledo before being a first-round pick, and so far, he seems to be just as tough to throw against in the NFL.
If he can finish the year without allowing a touchdown in coverage while racking up a couple of interceptions in the process, he'll garner enough attention for voters to pick him for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Comeback Player of the Year: J.K. Dobbins (+350)
Kirk Cousins is the favorite for this award, and it shouldn't be a surprise. The Atlanta Falcons quarterback tore his Achilles last year and is now lighting it up.
However, there's a chance that Cousins cools off, and +180 isn't the best value for the award. Instead, J.K. Dobbins has good value while still having a real shot at winning Comeback Player of the Year.
It's been a long road back to relevance for Dobbins. A former All-American at Ohio State, he played in 15 games as a rookie while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Injuries completely derailed his NFL career over the next few seasons, and he played in just 10 games in the last four seasons heading into 2024.
Now, Dobbins looks like his former self with his new team, the Los Angeles Chargers. He's averaging 5.4 yards per carry with 438 yards and three touchdowns. He's currently sixth in the NFL in rushing yards and fourth with 185 breakaway yards.
jk dobbins the man that u are
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) September 8, 2024
📺 | @nfloncbs pic.twitter.com/YZGjq4cXYm
It looks like Dobbins never suffered multiple lower-body injuries this season, showing explosiveness and elusiveness in space. Cousins may get all of the attention as a quarterback, but if things go south, it should be Dobbins who runs away with the award.
