NFL Analysis
9/26/24
11 min read
2024 NFL Week 4: Expert Picks, Predictions For Every Game
Week 4 is a big week in the NFL as the contenders and pretenders start to separate themselves. This is usually the time of the season when some of the "fluke" teams get exposed, and the real playoff contenders emerge from the pack.
With five divisional matchups this week and multiple other meetings between playoff teams from last year, we will learn a lot about how these teams stack up against one another. So, without further ado, here are the lines and our picks for every matchup going into Week 4:
>> READ MORE: NFL Week 4 Power Rankings
Week 4 Expert Picks, Predictions
Dallas Cowboys (1-2) at New York Giants (1-2)
Spread: Cowboys -5.5
Total: 43.5
Is this the week the Dallas Cowboys finally get back on track? After back-to-back ugly losses at home, they’ll be on the road for the next two weeks, and that might be a blessing in disguise.
The Cowboys have had great success against the New York Giants (they have won 13 of their previous 14 meetings), and they should take care of business in this game. It's also worth noting that Dallas is 6-1 ATS against New York in their last seven road games but just 2-6 ATS overall, dating back to 2023. It's just hard to trust this Cowboys team right now when it comes to the point spread.
Don’t be surprised if this is a field goal game simply due to the fact the Giants have an outstanding defensive line that can control the line of scrimmage. Look for the Cowboys to win and bounce back to 2-2, but for this to be close throughout.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 23, Giants 20
Minnesota Vikings (3-0) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Spread: Packers -2.5
Total: 43.5
The fact that the Green Bay Packers are 2.5-point favorites against the 3-0 Minnesota Vikings indicates that Jordan Love (knee) will be ready for Week 4. That is awesome news because this is now arguably the most entertaining game of the week.
Brian Flores and the Vikings have been incredible on defense this season, completely shutting down Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud. They blitz at an absurd rate (39.3% blitz rate) and will certainly do it this week against a less-than-100 percent healthy Love.
The good news for the Packers is that they can run the ball, which should help their offense stay on track. This is a coinflip game, but expect Sam Darnold and the Vikings to have a bit of a letdown on the road. The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games, and the credit should go to Matt LaFleur for getting his team to play over their heads in most of these contests.
Score Prediction: Packers 24, Vikings 20
New Orleans Saints (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
Spread: Falcons -1.5
Total: 42.5
This is one of the tougher games to predict because injuries have decimated both teams. Both teams will be without their starting centers after suffering injuries in Week 3. Still, the New Orleans Saints could be without as many as three offensive line starters this week.
The play here is to take the Saints +1.5 points, as their defense is still one of the best in the league. With Kirk Cousins still not at 100 percent, he could be under siege all game. Expect a low-scoring, defensive battle, with the Saints emerging victorious. However, this is another coinflip game where you would be better off staying clear of this game when placing a bet.
Score Prediction: Saints 18, Falcons 15
Denver Broncos (1-2) at New York Jets (2-1)
Spread: Jets -7.5
Total: 38.5
The New York Jets have had 10 days to prepare for this matchup, and being home should provide a big advantage. Robert Saleh’s defense looked suffocating in Week 3, as they ate up Jacoby Brissett. Bo Nix is much more mobile than Brissett, but it would be a shock if the Denver Broncos scored more than 17 points.
The biggest question is how Aaron Rodgers will look against one of the league's more formidable defenses. The good news for the Jets is that the Broncos have struggled away from Denver (5-15 in their last 20 road games), and the atmosphere in New Jersey should be fantastic on Sunday.
Look for the Jets to lean on their duo of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen and to get their third win in a row.
Score Prediction: Jets 21, Broncos 13
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at Houston Texans (2-1)
Spread: Texans -7
Total: 45.5
The Jaguars Jaguars looked lifeless on Monday Night Football, but you have to imagine there will be a sense of urgency in Week 4. Playing on the road during a short week against a divisional opponent will be quite a challenge for Jacksonville. The Houston Texans struggled mightily against the Vikings last week, and they had major problems protecting C.J. Stroud.
Jacksonville does have a good pass rush, which could cause some problems on defense. Expect the Texans to win, but don’t be surprised if this is a close game. Houston has been a good home team under Stroud, winning eight of their last 10 games in Houston. But the Jaguars plus the points isn’t a bad bet, considering it is a divisional matchup, and their season is on the line.
Score Prediction: Texans 26, Jaguars 21
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
Spread: Steelers -1.5
Total: 40.5
This feels like one of the easiest games of the week to predict. The Pittsburgh Steelers have been dominant on defense, allowing just 26 total points. Now, they’ll face one of the league’s most inaccurate quarterbacks and a defense that can’t stop the run at all.
Pittsburgh will lean on its rushing attack offense but look for its defense to create multiple turnovers to flip the field position. It will take a career day by Anthony Richardson for the Indianapolis Colts to stay competitive on Sunday.
Take the Steelers to win with ease and improve to 4-0, especially considering how well Mike Tomlin has done against the Colts (8-1) during the last decade.
Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Colts 13
Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)
Spread: Eagles -2.5
Total: 44.5
The last time these two teams met, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers destroyed the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card Round of the 2023 playoffs. Unfortunately, the Buccaneers were much healthier in that game, especially on the defensive line. The Eagles could be without multiple receivers, including A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, which will make this game more interesting.
It’s hard to envision Baker Mayfield having much success after being sacked 12 times in the last two games. Luke Goedeke missed time with an injury, and the Buccaneers have not replaced him well. Look for the Eagles to get their revenge in Tampa Bay.
Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Buccaneers 20
Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Spread: Bengals -4.5
Total: 48
The Andy Dalton revenge game. Well, not really, but this is a game that the Cincinnati Bengals have to win if they want to have any chance of making the playoffs this season.
The good news is that Joe Burrow looked incredible in Week 3, and Tee Higgins' return makes them much more dangerous on offense. You can even argue that Burrow played his best game since 2022 in Week 3, which is encouraging for Cincinnati should it get its defense fixed.
The biggest question in Carolina is whether Dalton will look good in start No. 2. The answer is probably not. Adam Thielen will miss this contest, which will make Dalton's life a little more difficult.
However, the Bengals are that bad on defense, and in a short week, it wouldn't be a surprise if they struggled again. Expect the Panthers to put up a good fight but, ultimately, come up a little short at home.
Score Prediction: Bengals 26, Panthers 23
Los Angeles Rams (1-2) at Chicago Bears (1-2)
Spread: Bears -2.5
Total: 40.5
The Chicago Bears are a tough team to figure out because their defense has played well to start the season, but their offense has been rocky. They have moved the ball well despite not having a reliable run game, but turnovers and poor short-yardage offense have caused a lot of problems.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams just stole a win at home against the 49ers, and they had no business winning. Sean McVay remains one of the league’s best coaches, and you can bet that they’ll be competitive again in Week 4.
However, the Bears are at home and should find a way to score 20+ points. If that’s the case, they’ll earn their second win of the season against one of the league’s best-coached teams.
Score Prediction: Bears 23, Rams 17
Washington Commanders (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2)
Spread: Cardinals -3.5
Total: 50.5
It seemed like it happened overnight, but the Washington Commanders and the Arizona Cardinals are suddenly two of the most fun teams to watch in the NFL, and it is because of their quarterbacks. Jayden Daniels just played one of the greatest Monday Night Football games in league history, scoring on every possession.
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have lit up the scoreboard this year with their new, revamped offense. This is a tough game to pick, with each side resembling the other, but look for Kliff Kingsbury to get some revenge against his former team on Sunday.
Score Prediction: Commanders 27, Cardinals 23
New England Patriots (1-2) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
Spread: 49ers -10
Total: 39.5
After an embarrassing loss to the Rams in Week 3, you can bet that Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers will come out for revenge this week. They are at home and are facing arguably the worst offense in the league. The New England Patriots have struggled to protect Jacoby Brissett, and there isn’t a receiver on the roster who will scare the 49ers.
Don’t be surprised if the Patriots put up a good fight on defense, as they are loaded with talent in the secondary. But their lack of offense will catch up with them again this week. The 49ers should get a bounce-back win in blowout fashion.
Score Prediction: 49ers 31, Patriots 10
Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)
Spread: Chiefs -7.5
Total: 39.5
This game looked a lot more interesting a week ago. However, injuries to Justin Herbert (ankle), Rashawn Slater (knee), and Joey Bosa (hip) have taken the juice out of this matchup. Even Derwin James (suspension) won’t be available, so the matchup against Travis Kelce is no longer exciting.
The Kansas City Chiefs have not played an A+ game yet, and perhaps they are not capable of doing that early in the season. Still, look for them to find a way to win and cover.
At some point, Patrick Mahomes will have a huge performance, and the offense will score 30+ points. It might not be this week, but it's tough to envision the Los Angeles Chargers scoring enough to stay competitive.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Chargers 13
Cleveland Browns (1-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-2)
Spread: Browns -1.5
Total: 37.5
It’s hard to trust either of these teams, as they both rely on their defense, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired. Gardner Minshew was benched in Week 3 for Aidan O’Connell but will start again this week. The Las Vegas Raiders have more talent on offense than the Cleveland Browns, but their inability to run the ball could cost them this week.
Cleveland is incredibly banged up on both sides of the ball, and there is even a chance Myles Garrett won't play this week, as he is nursing three separate injuries. The Browns will have a new starting lineup on the offensive line for the fourth straight week, which is bad news against Maxx Crosby and company.
Take the Raiders to win a low-scoring game in Las Vegas.
Score Prediction: Raiders 17, Browns 13
Buffalo Bills (3-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-2)
Spread: Ravens -1.5
Total: 46.5
This Sunday Night Football contest features two of the best three quarterbacks in the NFL, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Both players had monster Week 3 performances and will look to dominate under the bright lights. Allen might be the league MVP, as he has yet to turn the ball over. The Buffalo Bills have scored 30 or more points in each of three games.
The good news for the Baltimore Ravens is that their offense looked much better in Week 3, and Derrick Henry looked fresh. They'll need the offense to play well to keep up with the Bills.
However, Baltimore still has major issues with its defense, and its passing game still doesn’t look quite right. Expect this to be a battle, but the Bills will ultimately come out on top and improve to 4-0.
Score Prediction: Bills 26, Ravens 23
Tennessee Titans (0-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-2)
Spread: Titans -1.5
Total: 36.5
I’m not sure the NFL had this in mind when they scheduled the Tennessee Titans and the Miami Dolphins to play a Week 4 Monday Night Football contest. The Titans might be the worst team in football, and the Dolphins can’t move the ball at all without Tua Tagovailoa.
Tim Boyle could start for Miami at quarterback, and it’s hard to see the Dolphins scoring more than 17 points in this game. If it's not Boyle, Tyler "Snoop" Huntley could start after joining the team a few weeks ago.
This will be a really low-scoring contest where turnovers and field position decide the final outcome. Take the Titans to get their first win of the season, as they’ll likely lean on their rushing attack to “hide” Will Levis.
Score Prediction: Titans 18, Dolphins 13
Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at Detroit Lions (2-1)
Spread: Lions -4.5
Total: 46.5
The Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions have played some fantastic games in the last few years, and frankly, that’s probably why they are getting a primetime matchup against one another.
Injuries will play a big factor, as Sam LaPorta (ankle) might play. But the Seahawks are the pick. They've been lights out on defense since hiring Mike Macdonald. Plus, they’ve rebuilt their pass rush and can create pressure without blitzing.
Take the Seahawks and the points in this game, but don’t be surprised if it comes down to a last-second field goal. These two teams are very similar, and this should be one of the better matchups of the week.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 27, Lions 24
