Fantasy
12/2/23
7 min read
2023 NFL Week 13 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will look at some of the double stacks, single stacks and mini stacks I will take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
If you haven’t already, check out the Cover 5 show on YouTube.
WEEK 13 DFS SLATE ANALYSIS
Double Stacks
- Stack: QB C.J. Stroud WR Tank Dell WR Nico Collins
- Runback: RB Javonte Williams WR Courtland Sutton
C.J. Stroud has risen to elite QB status on DraftKings, but he might be overlooked with the Broncos on a six-game winning streak. Without Dalton Schultz, many will opt for the affordable Brevin Jordan, though I doubt his impact. Instead, look to higher-priced options in Tank Dell and Nico Collins as Stroud's key targets, justifying their costs.
The Broncos often use Single High Coverages, creating a favorable setup for Dell and Collins, who have excelled against Single High. While the Broncos' streak is impressive, a closer look reveals potential overrating. Victories against Josh Allen and limiting Patrick Mahomes might be less impressive, considering subsequent coaching changes and issues with the Chiefs' receiving corps.
The last time the Broncos faced a scheme similar to the Texans offense, they gave up 70 points to the Dolphins. The Texans don’t have Miami's speed, but Stroud has made magic with this receiving room. This sets the stage for Stroud, Dell and Collins to capitalize on these vulnerabilities, making them a compelling trio despite the Broncos' recent accomplishments.
I'm keen on Javonte Williams and Courtland Sutton for several reasons. Williams, with an increasing workload as both a rusher and pass-catcher, is well-positioned against the Texans to exploit their defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in allowing receptions.
The Texans' weakness in the slot, influenced by the defensive scheme from DeMeco Ryans in San Francisco, plays to Sutton's advantage over Jerry Jeudy. With Sutton consistently commanding a high target share and serving as Russell Wilson's go-to in the red zone, the chemistry between Wilson, Williams, and Sutton makes for a potent combination, promising significant fantasy points against the Texans.
- Stack: QB Brock Purdy WR Brandon Aiyuk WR Deebo Samuel
- Runback: WR A.J. Brown
The Eagles' defense is playing aggressively, leaning on Cover 0 and Cover 1 scheme. Brandon Aiyuk excels against Cover 1, averaging over four yards per route run. With the Eagles' heightened aggression, George Kittle might focus more on blocking, opening the door for Deebo Samuel in single coverage situations.
Despite Samuel's limited exploitation of such opportunities this season, the aggressive Eagles, combined with Kyle Shanahan's play calling, position Samuel for success, especially with well-executed screen passes or quick slants.
While the 49ers contained DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown's polished route-running could pose a different challenge. Brown has the skills to capitalize if the 49ers maintain man coverage looks.
While DeVonta Smith is a solid option, the 49ers' ceiling might hinge on Brown delivering a significant point total, making him a key player to watch for a potential breakout.
- Stack: QB Kenny Pickett WR George Pickens TE Pat Freirmuth
- Runback: WR Marquise Brown
The Cardinals often deploy two high coverages, similar to the Bengals in the previous week. With the new play caller, Pat Freiermuth becomes the primary target over the middle, a trend likely to continue.
As they successfully connect on these throws, expect Kenny Pickett to target George Pickens with in-breaking deep routes. Pickett displayed control and comfort in leading the offense without Matt Canada, suggesting continued success this week. For those not opting for the Pickett stack, consider Steelers running backs, as I anticipate a high-scoring game against the Cardinals.
Coming off a strong performance with Kyler Murray back, Marquise Brown looks poised for another week of high volume. Facing Joey Porter Jr., who tends to cover the opposing team's top receiver, Brown's speed could pose a challenge for him. With Minkah Fitzpatrick returning, throwing over the middle for the opposing team might prove challenging.
Single Stacks
- Stack: QB Tua Tagovailoa WR Tyreek Hill
- Runback: WR Curtis Samuel or TE Logan Thomas
Double-stacking Tua Tagovailoa this weekend doesn’t feel optimal because of the price points of these players, and I am locking Tyreek Hill in my lineups.
Hill has more than a 40 percent target rate in the primary formations the Commanders struggle with, and nobody else really pops in those formations. For Hill to pay off the price tag of $9,600, you will need a big yardage day and combine that with multiple touchdowns.
With how spread the Commanders are on offense, I don’t believe you have to run this game back, but the two options here are the cheap ones. Curtis Samuel is going to operate in the slot area against Kader Kohou, and that’s the easiest matchup against the Dolphins.
Safety Jevon Holland is questionable, and Logan Thomas will have the advantage against these linebackers. I don’t think both are producing high-point totals and aren’t needed to push the Miami Dolphins.
Mini-Stacks
- Detroit at New Orleans
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs WR Chris Olave
The Saints' defense has had a lot of injuries recently, and they have shown some issues defending running backs with top-end speed. Jahmyr Gibbs is the perfect running back to have a good game against the Saints, and I believe the Lions’ have plenty of players to consider this weekend.
With Marshon Lattimore out, the boundary is in for some trouble, and Jameson Williams is finally a main wide receiver in this Lions offense. I love his price, but I don’t think I would mini-stack with Chris Olave, considering the amount of good WRs on the slate.
Olave can clear protocol, and if he does, he will be the clear No. 1 wide receiver, and the Lions have played a lot of man coverage recently. Olave will dominate targets and be one of my favorite plays on the slate.
- Indianapolis at Tennessee
- RB Zack Moss WR DeAndre Hopkins
Zack Moss is locked into my lineups this weekend at $4,600 on DraftKings. The Colts don’t have Jonathan Taylor, and it will be a huge volume day for Moss.
The Colts' secondary is hurt, and they are weak on the boundary. DeAndre Hopkins took advantage of them in their first matchup and is in line to do so again with Will Levis. The Colts live in Cover 3 coverage, and it’s a lot of Hopkins against that look. I don’t think you need to force a mini-stack with Moss, but this is the route I would go.
One-Offs
- WR Tutu Atwell
The Browns missing Denzel Ward might make it tough for them against Tutu Atwell's speed. Also, Cooper Kupp's ankle injury could slow him down, and Puka Nacua might struggle against physical corners.
The Browns play a lot of Cover 1, and Atwell, with a high target share, could capitalize on deep opportunities. Keep an eye on both Atwell and Jameson Williams for potential deep plays this weekend.
Player Pool
| Pos | Name | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | C.J. Stroud | HOU | DEN | $8,100 | $8,000 |
| QB | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | WAS | $7,900 | $8,400 |
| QB | Brock Purdy | SF | PHI | $6,100 | $7,800 |
| QB | Kenny Pickett | PIT | ARI | $5,100 | $6,700 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | SF | PHI | $9,000 | $9,800 |
| RB | Raheem Mostert | MIA | WAS | $7,300 | $8,400 |
| RB | Kyren Williams | LA | CLE | $7,200 | $8,500 |
| RB | De'Von Achane | MIA | WAS | $6,900 | $7,400 |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | NO | $6,700 | $7,700 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | NYJ | $6,700 | $8,100 |
| RB | Rachaad White | TB | CAR | $6,300 | $7,500 |
| RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | LAC | $6,000 | $7,300 |
| RB | Devin Singletary | HOU | DEN | $5,900 | $7,000 |
| RB | Javonte Williams | DEN | HOU | $5,700 | $6,600 |
| RB | Jaylen Warren | PIT | ARI | $5,400 | $6,500 |
| RB | Najee Harris | PIT | ARI | $5,200 | $7,200 |
| RB | Dameon Pierce | HOU | DEN | $5,100 | $5,900 |
| RB | Samaje Perine | DEN | HOU | $4,800 | $5,700 |
| RB | Zack Moss | IND | TEN | $4,600 | $5,600 |
| WR | Tyreek Hill | MIA | WAS | $9,600 | $10,000 |
| WR | A.J. Brown | PHI | SF | $8,800 | $8,400 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | NO | $8,500 | $8,500 |
| WR | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WAS | $7,600 | $7,800 |
| WR | Tank Dell | HOU | DEN | $7,400 | $8,200 |
| WR | DeVonta Smith | PHI | SF | $7,300 | $7,700 |
| WR | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | PHI | $7,200 | $8,000 |
| WR | Chris Olave | NO | DET | $6,900 | $7,500 |
| WR | Nico Collins | HOU | DEN | $6,800 | $7,600 |
| WR | Deebo Samuel | SF | PHI | $6,200 | $7,300 |
| WR | DeAndre Hopkins | TEN | IND | $6,100 | $7,000 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | WAS | MIA | $5,500 | $6,700 |
| WR | Courtland Sutton | DEN | HOU | $5,400 | $6,900 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | ARI | PIT | $5,200 | $4,500 |
| WR | Josh Downs | IND | TEN | $5,100 | $6,100 |
| WR | Diontae Johnson | PIT | ARI | $5,000 | $6,800 |
| WR | George Pickens | PIT | ARI | $4,800 | $6,600 |
| WR | Jerry Jeudy | DEN | HOU | $4,700 | $6,000 |
| WR | Jahan Dotson | WAS | MIA | $4,600 | $5,900 |
| WR | Noah Brown | HOU | DEN | $4,500 | $6,400 |
| WR | Curtis Samuel | WAS | MIA | $4,100 | $6,200 |
| WR | Tutu Atwell | LA | CLE | $3,800 | $5,800 |
| WR | Greg Dortch | ARI | PIT | $3,700 | $5,200 |
| WR | Jameson Williams | DET | NO | $3,600 | $5,200 |
| WR | A.T. Perry | NO | DET | $3,300 | $5,700 |
| WR | Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | HOU | $3,300 | $4,800 |
| WR | Alec Pierce | IND | TEN | $3,300 | $5,300 |
| WR | Trey Palmer | TB | CAR | $3,200 | $5,200 |
| TE | George Kittle | SF | PHI | $6,200 | $7,400 |
| TE | Sam LaPorta | DET | NO | $5,600 | $7,000 |
| TE | Trey McBride | ARI | PIT | $4,900 | $6,700 |
| TE | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | ARI | $4,300 | $5,800 |
| TE | Logan Thomas | WAS | MIA | $3,600 | $5,200 |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | NO | DET | $3,400 | $4,900 |
| TE | Brevin Jordan | HOU | DEN | $2,500 | $4,300 |
| TE | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | ARI | $4,300 | $5,800 |
| TE | Kylen Granson | IND | TEN | $2,500 | $4,600 |
| DST | Dolphins | MIA | WAS | $3,900 | $5,000 |
| DST | Buccaneers | TB | CAR | $3,600 | $4,800 |
| DST | Jets | NYJ | ATL | $3,500 | $4,400 |
| DST | Falcons | ATL | NYJ | $3,400 | $4,700 |
| DST | 49ers | SF | PHI | $3,000 | $4,200 |
| DST | Titans | TEN | IND | $2,800 | $3,400 |
| DST | Panthers | CAR | TB | $2,500 | $3,200 |
| DST | Patriots | NE | LAC | $2,400 | $3,900 |
