Seahawks (6-5) at Cowboys (8-3)
Spread: Cowboys -8.5
Weather: No concerns
The Line Report
The spread for this contest has ranged from as low as Cowboys -7 to as high as Cowboys -9.5. As of this writing, the spread has settled at Cowboys -8.5. Despite the line movement the total has stayed adjacent to 46.5 early this week.
Cowboys Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
Dak Prescott is on a six-game run that may be the best of his career to date. It puts him into the thick of the MVP discussion. Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks allow the 11th-most passing yards per game this season.
Seattle allows the 16th-most passing yards per game to wide receivers. CeeDee Lamb is second in the league in receiving yards (1,066), third in receptions (78) with the 12th-highest target share (27.2 percent). Lamb exceeded 100 receiving yards in each of the first four games of Prescott’s surge.
Brandin Cooks has led the Dallas Cowboys in receiving yards in the past three games. Before that recent run, Cooks was held below 50 receiving yards in his first seven contests. Michael Gallup has been very up and down, to the point Jalen Tolbert’s playing time rose in Week 12.
Jake Ferguson has been held to 35 receiving yards or less in his last three games, with only two games over 50 receiving yards all season. Seattle gives up the 11th-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Tony Pollard has only ran for more than 80 yards once this season, which came back in Week 3 against the Cardinals. That said, he’s sixth in the league in carries and ninth among running backs in targets. The Seahawks allow the 13th-most rushing yards and the 16th-most receiving yards per game to running backs.
Seahawks Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
Seattle’s offense has scored more than 20 points twice in its past seven games. Geno Smith had a nice game against Washington’s non-existent pass defense during that stretch. Otherwise, he’s been closer to a concern than a solution since Seattle’s Week 5 bye. The Cowboys allow the second-fewest passing yards per game.
Dallas gives up the third-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers. No Seahawks wide receiver is in the top 25 in receptions or receiving yards through 12 weeks. Tyler Lockett leads the team in receptions (50, 26th) and DK Metcalf leads in receiving yards (592, 31st). Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been more productive in recent weeks, but he has not exceeded 65 yards receiving in a game. This group is more talented than its production indicates.
RB Kenneth Walker missed last week’s contest and he’s listed as questionable as of Tuesday night. Rookie Zach Charbonnet took 14 of Seattle’s 16 running back carries in Walker's absence. Dallas allows the eighth-fewest rushing yards and the fifth-fewest receiving yards to running backs.
What You're Betting On
This is not a typical Thursday night game because both teams played on Thanksgiving last week.
Dallas has one of the best rosters in the league and it has won seven games by three scores or more. If you’re betting on them to win with distance against Seattle, you need two things to happen.
The first is Prescott’s passing attack must continue its white-hot tear. Otherwise, you are banking on the Cowboys’ underachieving running game to carry this offense.
The second is Dallas has a premium pass rush and Smith struggles in muddy pockets. Micah Parsons and company can potentially derail this matchup. In truth, a Cowboys’ bet can be a direct bet against Smith.
If you’re betting on Seattle you are betting on a talented, but underachieving team that’s starting to freefall, losing three of its past four. The Seahawks’ defense has been the team’s bright spot since their slow three-game start. It is the more reliable group right now.
It’s hard to bet on Smith against this type of defense, so if you’re betting on Seattle your expectation is a clean game out of the offense where the defense keeps it close. Seattle is the more desperate team in this matchup.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Seahawks 13
Ryan's Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 32-27
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 22-20