NFL Analysis
9/6/24
4 min read
Washington Commanders Are NFL's Most Likely Breakout Team of 2024
“The Washington Commanders.”
That is my go-to answer the last few weeks when seemingly every host on the various radio stations I have gone on has asked me about my “surprise” team for the 2024 NFL season.
It’s not easy to pick a surprise team because, for the most part, I think the same teams will be in contention as most of the other experts and betting lines.
In the NFC, that means the Niners, Lions, Eagles, Packers, etc. It would be tough for any team to come out of nowhere to make the playoffs, let alone go on a playoff run against more talented and battle-tested teams like the abovementioned quartet.
Still, those radio hosts need an answer to their evidently contractually obligated “surprise team” question. So, I will give them one: The Commanders have the best chance to follow in the footsteps of last year’s surprise team, the Houston Texans.
Commanders vs. Texans Similarities
There is a similar recipe in place, right?
Last year, the Texans had a rookie No. 2 overall pick quarterback, C.J. Stroud, who simply had one of, if not the best, rookie seasons we’ve ever seen.
This year, the Commanders have a rookie No. 2 overall pick quarterback, Jayden Daniels, who lit the college football world on fire last season on his way to winning the Heisman Trophy and looked very comfortable in the preseason.
The odds that he plays as well as Stroud did last year are slim, but it is in the realm of possibilities. I can’t recall one quarterback guru coming on the Ross Tucker Football Podcast before the NFL Draft who didn’t rave about Daniels’ ability to process and deliver from the pocket without even delving into his rare ability as a runner, something Stroud doesn’t have.
Last year, the Texans showed renewed energy, improved culture, and a defense that got the most out of its talent, mainly because of a first-year defensive-minded head coach whose energy and spirit were infectious.
This year, the Commanders have a first-year defensive-minded head coach whose energy and spirit are known to be infectious in previous stops as defensive coordinator in Dallas and head coach in Atlanta.
Does that mean Dan Quinn will be a strong Coach of the Year contender like DeMeco Ryans last year? Of course not, but people around both men talk about them similarly regarding their passion for the game and ability to lead.
You could even argue that the Commanders have some underappreciated skill guys like the Texans did a year ago. There’s no reason WR Terry McLaurin couldn’t have a Nico Collins-type season.
Perhaps rookie WR Luke McCaffrey could have a significant impact on the offense like Texans rookie Tank Dell did a year ago. Austin Ekeler could do some Devin Singletary things from the running back spot. And possibly, Noah Brown could play like…Noah Brown?
That’s right, Brown is a Commander after being released by Houston. He had a solid season as the Texans’ second or third receiving option most weeks.
Washington's Road Is Tougher
There are differences between last year’s Texans and this year’s Commanders. The biggest is probably the strength of the division.
Last year, the Texans won an AFC South division, in which they were the only team to have double-digit victories. That made their 10-7 record enough to secure a home playoff game, which they won against Cleveland.
Washington's road will undoubtedly be more challenging. The Eagles and Cowboys in the NFC East have made the playoffs the last three years and have won at least 11 games each of the previous two seasons. This isn’t the AFC South.
That said, the consensus top two teams in the AFC South going into last year were the Jaguars and Titans. Yet, neither had a chance to make the playoffs when the Texans played the Colts in Week 18 last season.
Plus, the Eagles are coming off a collapse to end last season, and the Cowboys' offseason has been uninspiring, to be kind. It’s doubtful, but not impossible, that the Commanders could go on a Cinderella run — like last year’s Texans.
