NFL Analysis
8/8/24
4 min read
The Impact of the NFL’s New Kickoff Rule: Early Predictions, Possible Adjustments
It’s going to be a roller coaster.
That’s my initial reaction when I envision the next few weeks playing out regarding the NFL’s new “dynamic” kickoff.
Let’s call this my best educated guess as to how things will unfold with one of the biggest on-field rule changes pro football has ever seen. The truth is nobody knows what will happen, but this will serve as my prediction of sorts, given my 20+ years of association with the NFL.
🚨"NFL Spotlight" with special guest #Saints STC Darren Rizzi, co-creator of the NFL's new kickoff rule:
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) August 6, 2024
Timestamps:
(1:35) Brandon Aiyuk trade possibilities.
(7:38) Bears on Hard Knocks preview.
(11:40) New kickoff rule explained.
(14:47) START OF DARREN RIZZI INTERVIEW
(16:18)… pic.twitter.com/ph0nyITP0H
Nobody Will 'Show Anything'
The coaches have spent hours upon hours researching the new kickoff rule that debuted in the Hall of Fame game between the Bears and the Texans last week.
Heck, Dallas Cowboys special teams coordinator John Fassel told me in early April on the Ross Tucker Football Podcast that he and his staff had already reviewed every return from the XFL, which employed a similar format in its last season in 2023.
They’ve developed plans and strategies they think will work best under the new rules.
Does their kicker try to kick a “knuckler” into the landing zone between the goal line and 20, hoping that it goes into the end zone and the opponent must start from their own 20? Do they attempt zone blocking or perhaps even incorporate some gap-blocking style running plays on their returns?
No matter what they have decided is their best tactic, I highly doubt we see that in the preseason games. They will keep that under wraps until the games that count, meaning we should see a bunch of returns in August.
However, they will lack creativity, and it will be more of an exercise to allow their special teamers to get live reps blocking and defeating blocks.
Touchbacks Will Be Common Early
My No. 1 rule regarding anything associated with the NFL is that when in doubt, consider self-interest and job preservation. That is especially true for special team coordinators, who know all too well that one big mistake could cost them their jobs.
The analytics folks are projecting the average starting position under the new dynamic kickoff rule will be somewhere between the 28- and 29-yard lines. That means, on average, a team will only give up a little more than a yard of field position if they kick a touchback instead of kicking the ball into the landing zone. Unlike the XFL, which placed touchbacks at the 35, the NFL touchback will go to the 30-yard line.
My sneaky suspicion is that some special teams coordinators, perhaps even a large percentage, will tell their kickers to boot the ball into the end zone for the first few weeks until they get a better handle on the impact of the new rule.
Kicking a touchback and giving your opponent the ball at the 30 will not get a special teams coordinator fired. Giving up a touchdown return that costs your team the game might.
The NFL Will Adjust The Rule
When implementing this rule, the NFL was very clear that it retained the right to tweak it at any time this season after seeing what it looks like in games. If job insecurity causes special teams coordinators to bomb touchback after touchback, I don’t think the NFL will hesitate to adjust and change the touchback to the 35-yard line.
Remember, the NFL has two goals with the new dynamic kickoff: to make the kickoff a real play again and make it safer for the players. Most people would agree these are admirable aspirations.
Fewer than 22 percent of kickoffs were returned last year, including none of the 13 in the Super Bowl. Kickoffs had become more or less ceremonial touchbacks, and nobody wanted that.
At the same time, the previous iteration of the kickoff was dangerous, and no matter what rules they implemented to make it safer, the high-speed collisions caused way more injuries and concussions than any other play in the sport.
Personally, I love the new dynamic kickoff. After watching it in the Hall of Fame game, I appreciated that at least nine relatively safe 1-on-1 battles were going on each time the ball was kicked. It was an actual football play, which is what everyone wants.
In particular, it is what the NFL and the league’s owners want. If things unfold, as I suspect, because of the inherent human nature of special teams coordinators, the NFL will not hesitate to change the rule by October.
