NFL Analysis
12/5/23
4 min read
Ranking NFL’s Best, Worst Coaching Decisions From Week 13
Our look at the good and the bad coaching decisions from this past week’s games is informed by metrics such as expected win probability added (xWPA).
4 BEST, WORST DECISIONS OF WEEK 13
Second worst: Even the Browns need analytics
The situation: 4:58 to go in the third quarter, Rams lead by three, Browns have it fourth-and-goal on the Los Angeles 6-yard line
The decision: Browns score on a field goal
The result: Cleveland loses after a high-scoring fourth quarter from the Rams
In the third quarter against the Los Angeles Rams, the Cleveland Browns had the choice between going for a game-tying field goal or the lead with a touchdown.
The Browns went for the tie, and while the win probability model favors going for the touchdown by a margin of 2.1 points of xWPA, this isn’t the most egregious decision in the world.
But if the numbers say the Browns should go for it in situations such as this, there are many situations where teams with more competent offenses aren’t aggressive enough.
Second best: Cowboys welcome the shootout
The situation: 1:04 to go in the third quarter, Seahawks lead by one, Cowboys have it fourth-and-2 on the Seattle 30-yard line
The decision: Cowboys go for it, but the pass is incomplete
The result: Dallas commits turnover on downs
The Dallas Cowboys faced off against the Seattle Seahawks in the highest-scoring game of the week. One third-quarter decision by the Cowboys highlighted the importance of aggressive play calling.
With one minute to go in the quarter — and with Seattle up by one — the Cowboys faced fourth-and-2 on the Seahawks’ 30-yard line. The Cowboys ran a play for Dak Prescott that ended in an incompletion and a turnover on downs, and Seattle scored a touchdown on its next drive.
The decision to go for it looked great on paper and resulted in 9.7 points of xWPA. However, in terms of immediate outcome, it pretty much ended in the worst possible scenario. Yet the Cowboys ended up winning the game anyway. Weird!
It is difficult to judge the far-reaching consequences of decisions and outcomes. Giving up a touchdown after a turnover on downs can seem backbreaking. Still, it won’t always directly result in losing the game. This makes it considerably easier to justify going for it in such situations.
Worst: The Colts kind of give up
The situation: 1:19 to go in the fourth quarter, tie game, Colts have it fourth-and-1 on the Indianapolis 39-yard line
The decision: The Colts punt to the Tennessee 21-yard line, and the game goes to overtime
The result: Indianapolis scraps out the overtime win
A universal lesson in sports is to never give up and always fight until the last minute. So it was somewhat jarring to see a team such as the Indianapolis Colts roll over in a tie game and settle for overtime in the final minute of their matchup against the Tennessee Titans.
Perhaps the Colts preferred the safety of a guaranteed overtime period instead of losing in regulation. Still, the blunder resulted in a brutal negative 10.4-point swing in xWPA, but the Colts won in overtime anyway.
Best: Texans trust their offense
The situation: 6:00 to go in the first quarter, Houston leads by three, Texans have it fourth-and-1 on the Denver 17-yard line
The decision: Texans go for it out of a no-huddle
The result: Houston gets the first down and scores a touchdown on the same drive
If it isn’t already abundantly clear the Houston Texans are all-in on C.J. Stroud, then a play early in their matchup against the Denver Broncos should be telling.
With six minutes to go in the first quarter and the Texans leading by a field goal, Houston had the ball fourth-and-1 on Denver's 17-yard line.
More teams are choosing to go for it in situations like these, and the Texans did so, but they went a step further. They went for it out of a no-huddle, quickly calling a rushing play for Stroud, who converted.
The Texans netted 4.4 points of xWPA for their aggression and defeated the Broncos.
The article was written by Matthew Lim.
