NFL Analysis
1/7/25
6 min read
Ranking Most Likely 2025 NFL Wild Card Round Upsets
The 2024 playoffs are set, and some teams could be on upset alert during Super Wild Card Weekend.
Upsets are common in the NFL, especially in the playoffs. Last season, the Green Bay Packers became the first No. 7 seed in the new playoff format to win a playoff game, dominating the No. 2 Dallas Cowboys to advance to the divisional round.
It's rare to see chalk across the board in the NFL playoffs, so let's rank each of the six wild-card matchups with a 1-10 upset meter based on the betting favorites.
Most Likely 2025 NFL Wild Card Upsets
Commanders and Buccaneers (-3)
The Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the potential to be the most exciting matchup of the wild card round.
Both teams have mediocre defenses but high-powered offenses led by exciting quarterbacks in Jayden Daniels and Baker Mayfield. That has the makings of a potential shootout, meaning that anything is possible.
The Buccaneers have also looked much more mortal in recent weeks, losing to the Dallas Cowboys and nearly slipping up in Week 18 against the New Orleans Saints. If the Commanders smell blood in the water, and Daniels can generate some explosive plays, this has the makings of an upset.
Buccaneers upset meter: 8/10
Packers at Eagles (-4.5)
Injuries could play a huge role in the outcome of this NFC matchup.
The Green Bay Packers are hopeful that Jordan Love will be ok for Sunday's game after suffering an elbow injury in Week 18. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts remains in concussion protocol after missing the last couple of games, a sign that his concussion was more severe than initially expected.
There's still a good chance that Love and Hurts will play, but it's worth monitoring both situations. Assuming both can go, the Packers and Eagles feel like two evenly matched teams when they're playing at their best.
Along with solid quarterback play and workhorse running backs, the two defenses are capable of generating takeaways and making life hard on opposing passers. It all depends on which team plays more mistake-free football, but that just opens the door to the Packers pulling off another upset win as a No. 7 seed.
Eagles upset meter: 7/10
Chargers (-2.5) at Texans
Even though the Houston Texans are hosting a home playoff game as the AFC South champions, they're nearly full-field goal underdogs going against an ascending Los Angeles Chargers team.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh has turned the Chargers around, bringing a winning culture and physical mentality to the franchise. The offense is thriving thanks to a solid running game and an efficient year from Justin Herbert, as well as a Year 2 turnaround for Quentin Johnston and a breakout rookie season from Ladd McConkey.
That side of the ball will determine the outcome of this matchup. The Texans have the third-best defense by DVOA this season, and their secondary and pass rush could force Los Angeles to be a more run-heavy team.
If C.J. Stroud can make a couple of plays and its defense can hold on, the home-field advantage could help Houston advance. That's easier said than done, however, given how poorly the Texans' offense has played at times this year.
Chargers upset meter: 6/10
Broncos at Bills (-8.5)
Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level in 2024, but the Denver Broncos defense could force the Buffalo Bills into a mistake-free game in order to avoid a major upset.
The Broncos finished with the second-best pass rush win rate in the league this season thanks to impressive depth up front. That pass rush produced a league-high 63 sacks while generating 25 total takeaways, forcing opposing quarterbacks into mistakes throughout the year.
That defense could make things harder for Allen, but the Bills superstar thrives in off-script playmaking, which could make things that much harder for Denver. Plus, rookie QB Bo Nix could struggle to put the offense on his back in crucial moments, especially against a respectable Bills defense.
Bills upset meter: 5/10
Vikings (-1.5) at Rams
The Minnesota Vikings got blown out with a chance to secure the No. 1 seed, but the rest of the NFC shouldn't take that for granted.
Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores have built up one of the best complimentary football teams in the league. Sam Darnold has played at a Pro Bowl level on offense, while Flores' aggressive play-calling led the second-ranked defense by DVOA and a league-high 33 takeaways this season.
That's a brutal matchup for Sean McVay's Los Angeles Rams, even with such an exciting offense and a veteran quarterback in Matthew Stafford. For as talented as their defense is, the Rams are so young on that side of the ball that the lack of playoff experience could lead to some mental lapses.
This might be the closest line of the wild card weekend, but the Vikings' offensive attack is simply too balanced to be on full-on upset watch.
Vikings upset meter: 5/10
Steelers at Ravens (-10)
The wheels are completely falling off in Pittsburgh.
Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers offense look grossly incompetent, failing to break 20 points in any game during their four-game losing streak. The defense still has some premier players, but the lack of offensive firepower is forcing the Steelers into rock fights, hoping the offense can at least put kicker Chris Boswell into position to get points.
Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens offense looks like one of the most unstoppable balanced attacks in the league. Lamar Jackson could win his third MVP this season, while Derrick Henry continues to defy age with a 1,900-yard season on the ground.
Even though the Steelers pulled off an upset earlier this season, things are going so poorly for them right now that it would take a minor miracle for them to take down the Ravens in front of a hostile Baltimore crowd.
Ravens upset meter: 2/10
