NFL Analysis
2/19/24
11 min read
Jalen Hurts Has More To Prove To Climb Into QB Elite in 2024
Every NFL season brings a new shiny toy at quarterback. The quarterback-driven discourse that envelopes the sport almost necessitates it.
Any time a young quarterback sheds the shackles of uncertainty and ascends into the company of their more established peers, they are put on this pedestal that elevates their status beyond reality. Newer is always better. It's blinding.
Sometimes the hype is warranted, sometimes it isn't. Other times the hype isn't misguided, but premature.
The immediate rise of Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson after their first seasons as starters was more than justified. By contrast, rookie Baker Mayfield and second-year Carson Wentz turned out to be flukes. Then there are the Jared Goffs of the world, quarterbacks who probably got too much credit during their initial claim to fame but have since improved and eventually made good on their early-career excitement.
Jalen Hurts' Play in 2022 Answered Questions
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was the face of this fast-rising quarterback phenomenon in 2022. Hurts took over as the starter in 2021, but he was far from the entrenched starter by the end of the season. Beyond up-and-down play throughout the year, Hurts was completely embarrassed by Todd Bowles' Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense in the playoffs. That game alone cast doubt on Hurts' status moving forward.
All of that went out the window the following season. Hurts took a step forward in 2022. So did the offense around him, thanks primarily to the trade for star wide receiver A.J. Brown. Seemingly overnight, the Eagles became the most explosive passing offense with a run game, led by Hurts, that could grind down any defense. It was the perfect storm of an ascending quarterback cradled by an elite supporting cast.
That season undoubtedly pulled Hurts out of the sea of uncertainty. Hurts left no doubt that he was a starting quarterback in this league and that he had the tools to lead an overwhelming offense under the right conditions.
At the same time, there was a rush to throw Hurts into the elite tier of quarterbacks. There always is. An out-of-nowhere MVP campaign and Super Bowl appearance will understandably do that for a young quarterback. But that rush to crown Hurts was rooted more in team results than in the process. Hurts was a quality quarterback on an elite team, and the latter inflated the status of the former.
Eagles' Offense Emphasized Hurts' Strengths
Hurts excelled in a select few ways. The Eagles' offense was built and called to maximize those strengths without being punished for its incompleteness. In that way, Hurts' sudden rise felt similar to Goff's — a quarterback who emphatically proved they belonged but was probably getting away with more than their skill set suggests because of the pieces around them.
Early Goff, like Hurts, was excellent at a few things. Goff could stand in the pocket and deliver over the middle of the field with exceptional accuracy, especially with play-action. When asked to throw outside the numbers or create on his own, Goff faltered.
The latter didn't matter so much until the Rams' roster deteriorated after the 2018 Super Bowl run. Eventually, his flaws became too much for Sean McVay to bear any longer. Goff didn't start to grow out of those issues until he spent a couple of seasons in Detroit.
Hurts' paths to success are different from Goff's, of course. Hurts is not only useful as a runner but also a delightful deep ball thrower with the arm talent to rip it outside the numbers. Philly's elite offensive line and three-headed pass-catching monster of Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert enabled those skills perfectly.
But the issue with Hurts, and many of the other quarterbacks who are good rather than great, is that they are incomplete. Hurts brings a give-and-take at the quarterback position. All quarterbacks do to some degree, but Hurts' particular drawbacks give me pause about his ability to sustain high-end production and quality of play. He's just not as complete as the quarterbacks at the very top. Not yet, anyway.
Obvious Limitations Appear
The constraints Hurts puts on the Eagles offense are pretty clear. To this point in his career, Hurts hasn't proven he can execute a full-bodied dropback game. The offense was crafted to work around that, an approach that didn't hurt them in 2022 and eventually became an issue by the end of 2023.
Part of the bargain with Hurts is that he relies on RPOs as a healthy portion of his passing profile. RPOs help simplify things for the quarterback by keying on one key factor, be it pre-snap box count and alignment or the post-snap movement of one defender, and allow the quarterback to make a decision only based on that.
Hurts excels at them because they bypass some of his weaknesses with post-snap processing and pocket management while allowing his quick release and accuracy to shine.
Hurts led the NFL in RPO pass attempts each of the last two seasons, totaling 135 such dropbacks, per SportsInfoSolutions. His 65 RPO dropbacks in 2023 were not only the most in the league but nearly 20 more than Tua Tagovailoa (46) in third place.
Part of that is the system, to be fair. Colts head coach Shane Steichen, the Eagles offensive coordinator in 2022, also saw his two quarterbacks (Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew) match Hurts' 65 RPO dropbacks in 2023. The Eagles elevated Brian Johnson to offensive coordinator in 2023 to run the same system when Steichen left, so maybe that's all there is to it in Hurts' case. There's a little bit of "chicken or the egg" going on, and maybe I'm being a little unfair pinning that on the quarterback.
That's not the only area Hurts pinches the design of the offense, though.
Middle of Field Becomes a No-Fly zone
Hurts is also an unwilling thrower over the intermediate middle of the field relative to his peers.
Among quarterbacks with at least 400 pass attempts in 2023, Hurts' 34 throws between the numbers in the 10-25-yard range were the second-fewest in the league, according to TruMedia. Only Russell Wilson and his 26 such attempts ranked lower, and we all know the deal with Wilson throwing (or not throwing) the middle to the field.
That's not a one-year sample, either. Sometimes, circumstance and surrounding talent can affect that number as much as anything. Trevor Lawrence and Herbert, for example, are more than willing to throw over the intermediate middle, but neither did so very often in 2023. That's not the case with Hurts.
If you push the qualifier to 800 attempts and span over the past two seasons, Hurts still has the second-fewest of those throws ahead of only Wilson. Push it to 1,200 attempts over the past three seasons, and Hurts is still second-lowest among 16 qualifying quarterbacks. It's just who he is.
Now, Hurts is extremely productive on those throws. He ranked first in both success rate and EPA per dropback on those throws in 2023. Hurts very obviously has the arm talent and accuracy to make those throws.
The issue is that he just doesn't make them more often. Throwing consistently over the middle requires a bold attitude in the pocket and the ability to anticipate receivers coming open before they do.
For all his strengths elsewhere, Hurts doesn't hold up in those areas compared to the other elite quarterbacks in the league. It's why, on film, you rarely see Hurts attempt high-difficulty throws over the middle and instead only triggers on those throws when they are obviously open.
There's a sort of selection bias going on with Hurts' decision-making that helps explain the immense production on such a limited sample of throws. Wilson was the same way in Seattle. In 2020, as far back as TruMedia goes with this data, Wilson ranked third in EPA per dropback on those throws despite only throwing 47 such passes, the third-fewest in the league that year among qualifying quarterbacks.
Hurts could make more of those throws if he sped things up and threw with anticipation more consistently. The flashes are encouraging but too few and far between right now.
The Eagles have the personnel for more throws into that area, too. Intermediate routes over the middle are all Brown did in Tennessee. Though most lethal on sail routes, Goedert is a huge target over the middle. Even 170-pound Smith can be useful over the middle thanks to his route-running chops and toughness in traffic. There's no real reason to attack this little to the intermediate middle of the field.
All-Out Pressure Disrupts Hurts
Lastly, Hurts doesn't yet have a good answer when teams send the house at him.
Defenses attacked Hurts relentlessly with the blitz as a result last season. Hurts faced a league-high 62 dropbacks with at least six pass-rushers, according to TruMedia. Among the 21 qualifying quarterbacks last season (min. 400 attempts), Hurts' 35.5 percent success rate ranked third-worst. His -0.48 EPA per dropback was the second-worst.
Hurts was better against heavy blitzes in 2022, to be fair. He ranked sixth and seventh, respectively, in EPA per dropback and success rate against six-plus man blitzes a year ago.
Hurts' ability to extend and create outside the pocket carried much of that. It's a huge credit to Hurts' game that he has that tool in his shed. However, Hurts' lower body injuries in 2023 sapped him of the same athletic ability that made him a weapon the year before. Without it, Hurts did not look up to the task of handling big-time blitzes.
It says something that defenses continued to pick at that scab, and it's worth wondering how much Hurts can return to form when he's healthier or if defenses have locked in on a weakness of his.
None of these issues are unique to Hurts, nor are they inhibiting to one's impact by themselves. Jackson and Josh Allen also use RPOs at a high rate. Wilson was a Pro Bowl quarterback for a long time without targeting the intermediate middle of the field much. Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith are some of the least-effective quarterbacks against heavy blitzes the past two years. They're all good quarterbacks anyway.
Hurts has still been productive with all of these limitations. He almost secured the MVP in 2022 and posted relatively good numbers in 2023 despite how clunky the offense felt for extended stretches.
Hurts Maintains Plenty of Promise
The strengths Hurts has as a player — poise in high-leverage situations, accuracy, arm talent and mobility — are more than enough to put forth productive play in Philly's loaded offense.
That's why the argument here is not that Hurts is bad. It never has been. He's a quality NFL starting quarterback with core features an offense can be built around. That's a valuable player to have, especially given Hurts' age and history of steady improvement before 2023.
At the same time, Hurts' particular combination of issues makes it feel like the Eagles are threading a very fine needle. It can be done, and there are only a few quarterbacks who transcend that, to begin with, but it's an important distinction when comparing the best quarterbacks to regular good quarterbacks.
He's a quality NFL starting quarterback with core features an offense can be built around. ... At the same time, Hurts' particular combination of issues makes it feel like the Eagles are threading a very fine needle.
Maybe all of this is just me appealing too much to my sensibilities at quarterback, and I'm overcorrecting after a "down" year from Hurts. I like aggressive, creative quarterbacks who manage the pocket well and attack tight windows. Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud — that's the archetype of quarterback I gravitate toward. Hurts, however high you rate him, doesn't really fit the mold. There's a world where Hurts becomes that player; we just haven't seen it consistently yet.
Next season is a pivotal one for Hurts. He'll be two years removed from his almost-MVP shine, which might draw a more critical eye. He'll also be healthier than he was in 2023 and have a real chance to open up his game without worrying about injuries.
There's also the possibility of center Jason Kelce retiring, which would inevitably thrust more pre-snap responsibility onto Hurts. That might prove to be a difficult transition with the Eagles hiring Kellen Moore to run the offense, stripping Hurts of the familiarity he had with the old system. A lot of pressure and responsibility will be thrust Hurts' way in a hurry.
That seems to be when Hurts performs his best anyway. Pressure is an opportunity. Hurts was doubted after he was benched at Alabama, only to emerge as a Heisman candidate at Oklahoma.
Hurts' starting status was thrown into question after a shaky 2021 season before turning in an MVP campaign the following year. 2024 is Hurts' chance to once again emerge stronger than before.
