Expert Analysis

11/12/24

13 min read

How Drake Maye Is Leading New England Patriots Toward a Promising Future

By James Foster

NFL Analyst
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) warms up before the game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field.
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) warms up before the game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. David Banks-Imagn Images.


3-7 teams don’t usually inspire much optimism, but New England’s future is as bright as it’s been since 2019.

The New England Patriots have won two of their last three games, and Drake Maye has shown franchise quarterback potential in his first five starts. Like the vast majority of rookies, he isn’t a finished product and will need to continue refining his game in the next few years to reach his upside, but the flashes he’s shown since becoming the starter should have New England fans excited.

I’ve divided this article into three sections: we’ll start with positives and examine the aspects of Maye’s game that have led him to early success, then discuss the areas he needs to improve and finish by comparing his play to the other rookie quarterbacks in the 2024 Draft class.

The Book on Drake Maye

SUPPORTING CAST

Before we dive into the tape, it’s important to address Maye’s surrounding core. New England’s starting tackles are Demontrey Jacobs, a second-year UDFA, and Vederian Lowe, a 2022 sixth-round pick, and neither are even replacement-level pass blockers.

Veteran center David Andrews underwent season-ending shoulder surgery after Week 4 and was replaced by Ben Brown, another inexperienced UDFA. Sidy Sow had a promising rookie year, but a preseason ankle injury sidelined him until Week 4, and he only started one game at left guard before being replaced by Michael Jordan.

Right guard/swing tackle Mike Onwenu is the only quality starter on this offensive line, but he’s far from shutdown in pass protection. New England’s offensive line situation is as desolate as any team in the NFL, and it severely limits the time and space that Maye has to operate within the pocket.

The Patriots have a similar lack of talent at receiver. Demario Douglas is a promising slot receiver who I like as a third target, but he hasn’t proven that he can produce in a primary role. Kayshon Boutte, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Kendrick Bourne are replacement-level complementary receivers who each have a drop rate of more than 10 percent.

Complaining about a lack offensive line and receiver help is usually the first denial step when making excuses for a struggling young quarterback. Fortunately, that’s not what I’m doing.

Maye has actually played well despite New England’s lack of offensive talent. Investing in weapons and protection is crucial to maximizing Maye’s potential, but he’s shown the ability to carry an offense to league average with marginal help.

STRENGTHS

ARM TALENT

The first thing that pops off the screen when you watch Maye’s tape is his arm talent. His range and velocity fall just below the Allen-Mahomes tier, but he easily has a top-10 arm in the NFL and can access the entire field with minimal strain.

While his ball placement still needs to be more consistent, he’s capable of executing tight-window throws that only a handful of quarterbacks would even consider.

New England lacks the offensive talent to sustain an efficient offense that consistently orchestrates long, methodical drives, but Maye's ability to push the ball downfield allows them to cut some corners. Through Week 10, Maye has the second-highest explosive play rate among qualifying quarterbacks.

Anthony Richardson’s placement on this list is a good reminder that down-to-down efficiency is just as important, but Maye's playmaking ability has injected life into a stagnant offense:

His best throw of Week 10 was this 28-yard dot to Austin Hooper. Maye puts enough touch on this pass to protect the ball and allow Hooper to high-point it through contact:

He’s effective targeting the deep sideline and can create explosive plays on demand if the Patriots can find a quality X-receiver who can win vertically against press coverage. His first career touchdown pass was a 40-yard shot to Boutte, and they connected again the following Week:

PLAY EXTENSION

Maye’s rare natural ability is even more evident when the play breaks down, which happens frequently in New England’s offense.

In this play from Week 8, Tyquan Thornton is bracketed on the deep post, but Maye escapes the pocket, buying time for Thornton to outrun the field-side safety. He delivers an incredible throw on the run, but Thornton is unable to come down with it:

In Week 10, he had another heroic play that didn’t count. This time, Lowe loses quickly to the inside, but Maye senses and evades the pressure and flicks the ball to KJ Osborn as he falls out of bounds. This play was nullified due to illegal touching.

Many of his most impressive throws have been dropped or called back, but in Week 9, he sent the game to overtime with a spectacular touchdown pass as the clock expired.

Maye's creativity and playmaking instincts can bail the Patriots out of trouble and give them an ace in the hole in high-leverage situations. As they rebuild the offensive line and receiver room, they'll ideally become less reliant on these out-of-structure plays.

RUSHING

Whether he’s working from the pocket or extending plays to the sideline, Maye’s arm is a weapon that can partially compensate for an unimaginative passing offense with receivers that struggle to separate against man coverage.

However, he’s equally dangerous as a ball carrier and is already one of the most productive rushing threats among NFL quarterbacks. In just 4.5 games, Maye ranks second in total scramble yards and has repeatedly salvaged broken plays with his legs. He’s also been a highly efficient runner, averaging 10.2 yards per scramble:

His movement skills were a bit underrated during the draft process, and he’s proven to be more than just “sneaky athletic.” He can outrun pursuit angles, shake defenders in the open field, power through contact to convert short-yardage, and stiff-arm defensive tackles.

Although Jayden Daniels and Maye lead NFL quarterbacks in scramble rate, they’ve both displayed good decision-making when it comes to stepping up or breaking out of the pocket. As rookie quarterbacks, their pocket navigation is far from perfect, but they’ve avoided using scrambling as a crutch that prevents them from working through their progressions.

INTERMEDIATE PASSING

Maye’s tape isn’t just deep shots and backyard football. He’s a highly capable intermediate passer who can progress through his reads from the pocket and throw with anticipation. He's not quite a “surgical” pocket passer; he’ll occasionally linger on his first read and miss passing windows, but that doesn’t happen frequently enough to warrant concern.

Almost every quarterback improves their processing efficiency as they gain experience, and Maye is at a promising starting point. 

He’s comfortable reading out his primary concept before progressing to a backside dig and understands the timing of zone coverage windows in the middle of the field. On this play, he releases the ball at the exact moment his receiver breaks:

New England runs a lot of “Bow” concepts (Shanahan terminology), which consist of a short sit or arrow route with a dig developing behind it. The underneath route is designed to hold the hook defender and widen the passing window for the deeper in-breaking route.

These are relatively simple reads, but they’re crucial to most third and medium concepts in the NFL, and young quarterbacks who come from spread offenses often struggle with them early.

If a quarterback wasn’t asked to target the intermediate middle in college, they usually face a learning curve in the NFL, where windows open and close much faster. Maye had plenty of experience with throws like this at North Carolina, and for the most part, he’s been effective executing them in the NFL.

WEAKNESSES

BALL SECURITY

Maye has a Rookie of the Year-caliber highlight reel, but his ball security has to improve. He’s thrown five interceptions and fumbled three times, and his turnover rate of 3.7 percent is the seventh highest among NFL quarterbacks.

He’s benefited from considerable interception luck, and his box score stats actually undersell his carelessness and lack of precision. I charted at least three dropped interceptions on his tape (a couple of plays are debatable), and eventually, defenses will start punishing him for bad decisions at a higher rate.

He’s still brand new to the league, so we’re grading him on a curve and weighing the positives a bit more than the negatives. But the grace period doesn’t last forever, and his turnover propensity isn't sustainable in the long term.

Calling back to the previous section, one of Maye’s interceptions came on a Bow-type concept from Week 9. On this play, Hunter Henry’s sit route holds Roger McCreary (#21) underneath, and Ja’Lynn Polk wraps behind him on a dig. Demario Douglas runs a deep over from the slot, which Maye expects Amani Hooker (#37) to carry across the field, creating an open window for the in-breaking route.

However, Hooker passes off Douglas’ route and slides into the passing lane, which Maye is under too much pressure to recognize, and he throws an interception:

His interception from Week 10 was probably his worst play of the season, although the play design did him no favors. New England runs a bootleg but only has two routes on the right side of the field.

Almost every boot concept in the NFL is some variation of a three-level flood, with a deep route to occupy the safety, an intermediate out, and a flat route to hold the shallow defender. With no underneath threat T.J. Edwards is free to get depth and cover Austin Hooper, and Maye doesn’t see him before it’s too late.

When I saw this play, I was overwhelmed by a sense of déjà vu, and I quickly remembered that he had thrown a practically identical interception against Minnesota last year. He seems to have occasional lapses in spatial awareness and field mapping and might end up being a quarterback who throws a handful of head-scratching interceptions every year.

An occasional misread or reckless decision isn’t a huge problem, assuming he continues to offset them with highlight throws and explosive plays down the field. Based on two years of college tape and five NFL starts, I don’t actually view decision-making as a major concern for Maye.

ACCURACY

The majority of his interceptable passes have resulted from poor ball placement, which was his one significant weakness as a prospect, and improving this should be his top priority.

Accuracy will be the deciding factor between whether he's an erratic gunslinger or a stable franchise quarterback. He’s talented enough to have spectacular individual performances and could easily settle in as a high-variance quarterback who makes the Pro Bowl and throws for 4,800 passing yards every year.

However, technical development is critical for him to advance to the level that he’s capable of and fully realize his potential.

The good news is that he’s a young player who seems to have the right mindset, and his accuracy has gradually improved each week. He was my QB1 in the 2024 class and my highest-graded prospect in the last three years, so I’m confident that he can reach his upside.

FUMBLES

On a related note, Maye also needs to do a better job protecting the football when he’s under pressure. He’s been sacked 14 times and already has three fumbles, matching his season total from 2023.

It’s a small sample size, so it could just be noise, but hopefully he can reverse that trend.

SACK AVOIDANCE (MINOR)

His pocket presence and navigation have been decent up to this point.

There’s absolutely room for improvement, and he’s taken a few unnecessary sacks, but the pass protection has been awful, and Maye has made the most of his situation overall.

COMPARING ROOKIE QBS

I’m not drawing any sweeping conclusions about Maye after 4.5 starts, but it’s enough of a sample size to begin comparing him statistically to his peers in the 2024 class.

This table shows key metrics for the five rookies with at least 100 dropbacks. The colors are scaled relative to all NFL quarterbacks this year. Statistically, Daniels has been the best rookie by a comfortable margin, ranking in the top half of the league in nine out of 10 metrics.

Maye and Nix have been slightly below average compared to the rest of the NFL, which is standard for rookies, and Rattler and Williams have gotten off to slow starts:

Before the draft I had the quarterbacks ranked:

1.     Drake Maye

2.     Caleb Williams

3.     Jayden Daniels

4.     JJ McCarthy

5.     Bo Nix

6.     Michael Penix Jr.

7.     Spencer Rattler

My revised rankings after 10 weeks would be:

1.     Jayden Daniels

2.     Drake Maye

3.     Caleb Williams

4.     JJ McCarthy

5.     Bo Nix

6.     Michael Penix Jr.

7.     Spencer Rattler

I really liked Daniels as a prospect, but I didn’t expect him to be this good immediately, and in a revised ranking, he’d be my top-ranked quarterback. However, the gap between him and Maye is still razor-thin. Daniels is much more proven at this point, and I feel most confident in his floor, but Maye hasn’t done anything to sway my confidence. 

I was slightly lower on Williams than the consensus, and he would move down to QB3 in a re-rank. I still had a “No. 1 Pick Worthy” grade on him; I just didn’t consider him a generational prospect, and I thought there was a chance he would struggle early in his career.

He’s looked much worse than I could have imagined, and while I’m not panicking, I’m definitely concerned. His deep accuracy has been dreadful, he isn’t seeing the field well, and he’s reverted to some bad habits under pressure. 

Nix had a very troubling start to his career and looked completely overwhelmed by NFL pass rushes. I still don’t see an overly high ceiling, but he’s settled in over the last few weeks and has a good chance to develop into a solid starter.

I had a fourth-round grade on Spencer Rattler, and he did not look like an NFL starter in the three games he played. My opinion on McCarthy and Penix Jr. has not changed since they haven’t played. 

Tags: Drake Maye, New England Patriots

James Foster

NFL Analyst

James Foster is an NFL writer who creates film-based analysis of NFL players and teams. He previously worked for A to Z Sports.

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