NFL Analysis
12/3/24
6 min read
How Bo Nix, Elite Defense Made the Broncos a Playoff Threat in 2024
Expectations weren't high for the Denver Broncos heading into the 2024 season, but head coach Sean Payton and general manager George Paton deserve credit for assembling a team that has quickly turned back into a playoff-caliber franchise.
A Monday Night Football win against the Cleveland Browns helped the Broncos improve to 8-5 on the year. While they won't be taking the AFC West from the Kansas City Chiefs this season, according to The Athletic's playoff projection model, the Broncos now have a 77 percent chance of making the playoffs.
It seemed unlikely before the start of the year, but the Broncos now have one of the most balanced teams in the NFL.
A competent Offense
Bo Nix looked like a potential first-round bust earlier this season, but that hasn't been the case at all now that he's found his footing at the NFL level.
Monday night's win was a good example of the version of Nix that the Broncos are currently working with. He completed 18-of-35 passes for 294 yards, throwing a touchdown and two interceptions. While his biggest play of the game came on a beautiful deep shot to Marvin Mims Jr., he also threw an inexcusable interception by chucking a ball deep into double coverage.
Those were Nix's first two interceptions he's thrown since Week 9, with the former Oregon and Auburn quarterback doing a much better job taking care of the football in recent weeks.
In fact, since Week 8, Nix has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league at avoiding interceptions while still generating consistent positive plays through the air.
A big reason for that midseason turnaround is the fact that he's started to establish a connection with his No. 1 receiver, Courtland Sutton. Since that turnaround from Nix in Week 8, Sutton has been one of the most productive receivers in football, catching 42 passes for 569 yards and three touchdowns in six games.
It's not just the production but also Sutton's efficiency during this run. His 2.72 yards per route run since Week 8 is the 12th-best rate in the league, according to TruMedia.
The @SuttonCourtland special.
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) November 24, 2024
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/jIkTu4m0rm
Denver's offense's next step will be an improved run game, although there's no guarantee that will happen in 2024. Sean Payton and his staff have continued to spread out the rushing opportunities between Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and rookie Audric Estime. None of them has established themselves as a true go-to guy, which is a big reason why the Broncos rank 27th in rushing DVOA.
The offensive line isn't a problem there, either. In fact, Denver's offensive line might be its strongest unit offensively. It is No. 9 in generating 1.56 yards before contact per rush attempt this season and is the No. 1 team in pass-block win rate, as well as No. 5 in run-block win rate, by ESPN.
Players like Garett Bolles, Quinn Meinerz, and Mike McGlinchey do not get much national recognition. Still, their dominance in the trenches is probably the No. 1 reason why the offense has made big plays all season.
A Suffocating Defense
Denver's defensive playmaking was on full display on Monday night.
Despite career nights from Jameis Winston and Jerry Jeudy, the Broncos generated three sacks, three interceptions, and two massive defensive touchdowns to help give Denver the win. Third-year linebacker Nik Bonitto led the way with a sack, two pass breakups, two QB hits, and an interception returned for a touchdown just before halftime.
Bonitto has become one of the best pass rushers in the league. He's second in the NFL with 11 sacks but has also generated 43 pressures in 13 games, per Pro Football Focus.
.@Browns @Broncos @nikkkkbonitto isnt just a rising star...He has arrived and he is a player thst you have to gameplan for. #OUDNA #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/d93nDqEdD9
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) December 3, 2024
What's even scarier about the Broncos' defense is that Bonitto is just one of a handful of players dominating as a pass rusher this season. Per PFF, the Broncos have four different players with at least 36 pressures on the year, led by Zach Allen's 56 pressures.
Not only do the Broncos lead the NFL with 47 sacks, but they also lead the league by a wide margin with 212 pressures.
That pass rush has allowed Denver's talented secondary, led by All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II, to thrive and capitalize on mistakes from opposing quarterbacks. The two-time Pro Bowler has only allowed one touchdown in coverage when targeted this season, allowing a career-low passer rating of 61.6 with three interceptions and nine pass breakups.
Even second-year CB Riley Moss is finding his footing opposite of Surtain. He has one interception, one forced fumble, and eight pass breakups in his second season. Fellow corner Ja'Quan McMillan has also seen a third-year jump in 2024, cutting down on touchdowns allowed while snagging a pair of interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown on Monday night.
PICK SIX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 3, 2024
📺: ESPN pic.twitter.com/k1UhkLh75X
The combination of an elite pass-rushing unit and lockdown secondary puts opposing offenses in a blender.
Can the Broncos Make a Playoff Run?
With their current trend, the Broncos could be a team that no one wants to face once the playoffs arrive.
The Broncos still have a tough schedule the rest of the way, with their remaining four games against the Colts, Chargers, Bengals, and Chiefs. However, even one or two more wins could be enough to help Denver get into the postseason.
Once there, the Broncos have the talent to compete with just about anyone. They have a top-five defense by DVOA and an offense that continues to improve weekly.
The biggest issue for Payton and the Broncos will be protecting Nix from himself. Now that he's starting to see success, the first-round rookie is taking bigger risks throwing downfield. Monday's win was far and away Nix's highest average depth of target all season, throwing an average of 13 yards downfield.
Some of those decisions resulted in explosive plays, but others were risky incompletions or interceptions when Nix had wide-open receivers underneath for first downs.
That kind of decision-making can be crippling for an offense, and everything is amplified once the playoffs are underway.
If Nix can take care of the football and let the rest of the team do its thing, then the Broncos should be a tough out for anyone they face in the postseason.
