Fantasy
5/18/23
5 min read
Fantasy Football Best Ball: How Should DeAndre Hopkins be Valued?
Editor's note: After publish, DeAndre Hopkins was released by the Arizona Cardinals on May 26, 2023.
In the introductory article for this series, we laid out the framework for identifying ambiguity in best ball. If you’re unsure what we refer to, read that piece before continuing with this article.
With those tenets in mind, we turn our attention to a wide receiver being drafted in the top four rounds of early best ball drafts. However, this receiver carries a wide range of outcomes due to numerous factors. Let’s dive into Arizona Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins.
>> READ: Treylon Burks Best Ball Breakdown
All data discussed is from Sports Info Solutions.
Hopkins' Best Ball Value
Coaching, Personnel Changes
Gone are the days of the horizontally spread, air raid offense with the departure of former coach Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury was replaced by first-time head coach Jonathan Gannon, who served as the defensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles during the 2021 and 2022 seasons.
That leaves the offense in the hands of first-time offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, a 36-year-old former quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends coach for the Cleveland Browns and Minnesota Vikings.
Significant changes to the Cardinals’ offensive personnel this offseason resulted in an offensive line overhaul. The team signed center Hjalte Froholdt, a former fourth-round pick who was released by the New England Patriots in 2020. He spent the next two seasons primarily on the practice squads of the Houston Texans and Browns.
Arizona drafted rookie guard/tackle Paris Johnson Jr. in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, re-signed OT Kelvin Beachum and OG Will Hernandez and expects OT D.J. Humphries back from a season-ending injury in 2022. Overall, that’s a significant amount of turnover up front for a team likely to be built around its offensive line
As for the skill positions, QB Kyler Murray and TE Zach Ertz suffered devastating knee injuries in the 2022 season, placing their statuses in doubt to start the coming season.
Team Volume, Efficiency
We don’t quite know exactly what the offense will look like with a complete coaching overhaul. However, Petzing’s experience with offenses built around a power run game with an emphasis on the “X” wide receiver gives us a glimpse into what to expect this season.
The offenses he worked with in Minnesota and Cleveland aimed to stretch opposing defenses on the horizontal plane and attack mismatches generated by layered route concepts. That’s an interesting concept considering the talent at his disposal in Arizona. It’s also important to consider the Cardinals are built from the defense forward.
Those two ideas yield a likely scenario where the offense is more focused on game management and efficiency rather than generating splash plays. That should hold Hopkins’ volume consistent in the coming season.
The Cardinals averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game in 2022 on a staggering 65.1 percent pass rate under Kingsbury. Expect those numbers to drop significantly under the new regime.
We also should expect the 67.3 plays per game the team averaged in 2022 to take a significant hit moving forward. Finally, the below-average 323.5 yards per game the team managed should be considered a reasonable expectation for this season.
Individual Projections
Important Metrics (2022, 2021, 2020)
Targets per Route Run (TPRR): 29.6%, 22.0%, 26.9%
Route Participation: 95.3%, 89.7%, 92.1%
Target Rate: 29.4%, 20.5%, 29.4%
Average Depth of Target (aDOT): 10.4, 12.4, 8.8
Red Zone Target Share: 18.5%, 32.6%, 26.1%
Considering the Cardinals could see as much as a 10 percent hit to total volume after their coaching philosophy change, Hopkins carries a wide range of potential volume expectations.
The offense's expected emphasis on the “X” wide receiver helps to balance Hopkins’ projections, as does his elite (and proven) ability to earn targets across multiple schemes.
The final consideration for Hopkins’ projections is his health. Health is a significant input for a 31-year-old wide receiver coming off two seasons in which he missed a combined 14 games. At an expectation of 14 games played, Hopkins projects for 122-149 targets, 80-98 receptions, 915-1,118 receiving yards and six to eight touchdowns.
A 95 percent outcome on those projections would place Hopkins in the middle of the WR2 discussion, whereas a five percent outcome on those projections would place Hopkins in the WR4 range.
Hopkins is being drafted as the WR22 in early best ball drafts, which is about an 85 percent outcome at current expectations, meaning he is being drafted closer to his ceiling than the median projection.
This results in an optimal underweight approach in exposure for the coming 2023 season.
Variance-Induced Upside, Downside
Now consider the variables at play for Hopkins heading into the 2023 season. As mentioned above, Murray sustained an ACL tear in Week 14 last season. That injury typically carries an eight-to-10-month recovery window, which would place his return to full football activities in the August-to-October timeframe.
That means the possibility exists for Murray to begin the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, significantly impacting the offense's overall expected efficiency and Hopkins’ efficiency early in the year.
The final input for a range of outcomes projections involves Hopkins’ health. The above calculations assumed 14 games played, which is the baseline for all skill position players at current historical injury rates.
Hopkins missed a combined 14 games during the previous two seasons and is entering his age-31 season. As such, his projections carry a significant downside in the form of games played.
Add it up, and Hopkins is being drafted near the best-case scenario, somewhere in the 85 to 90 percent outcome range. For those new to ranges of outcomes, Hopkins should be expected to overperform his current ADP 10 to 15 percent of the time and fall short a whopping 85 to 90 percent of the time.
Yes, the ceiling remains elite for his ability to command targets throughout his career. But both the median projection and range of outcomes are heavily biased toward the downside at his current valuation.
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