Fantasy
9/17/22
6 min read
Bears vs. Packers DFS Sunday Night Showdown
From the Chicago Bears side, they won despite the awful weather, and I anticipate a game in a dome would’ve resulted in a win for the 49ers. The Bears' offensive line gave up 11 pressures on 23 dropbacks, and the Packers did get a lot of pressure on Kirk Cousins last week. There is not much to take away from that game with the 49ers, and we learned much more about the Green Bay Packers.
Nobody in the NFL can consistently perform at an MVP level without MVP talent. Davante Adams wasn’t replaced, and it showed. Those saying the opinion could be changed if Christian Watson catches that long bomb fails to realize Watson’s negative during the draft process was the number of drops he had in college. If Allen Lazard cannot take on a big role in the passing game, this team will depend on this backfield to move the ball.Â
Vegas Line: Packers -10
Over Under: 41.5
Notable Injuries:
Bears: WR Velus Jones Jr. (Doubtful).
Packers: OT David Bakhtiari (Questionable), OG Elgton Jenkins (Questionable), WR Allen Lazard (Questionable), Jon Runyan (Questionable).
Bears vs. Packers DFS: Info to Know
Bears Offense vs. Packers Defense
- Bears' play caller Luke Getsy was the quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator for the Packers last year.
- Justin Fields averaged 7.5 yards per attempt vs. zone coverage last season and 7.1 vs. the Packers’ zone coverage.Â
- In Week 1, the Packers played zone coverage on 76% of dropbacks.
- Last Season, Darnell Mooney had a 26% target share against zone coverage.
- In Week 1, Mooney led the team with 22 routes, while Equanimeous St. Brown was tied for second with Cole Kmet at 14 and David Montgomery and Dante Pettis getting 14 routes.
- In the running back room, Montgomery out-snapped Khalil Herbert 37 to 26.
- Herbert handled all the goal line rushes over Montgomery, with Fields getting three attempts as well.
Packers Offense vs. Bears Defense
- In Rodgers' one game against Matt Eberflus' defense, he averaged 8.2 YPA and threw for 3 touchdowns.
- The Packers only averaged 3.7 YPC in that game.
- Against the Bears, Lazard and Aaron Jones had 2 touchdowns a piece.
- Six wide receivers ran routes for the Packers in Week 1.
- A.J. Dillon and Robert Tonyan were the only two players to run more than 10 routes and have more than 2 yards per route run.
- Jones ran four more routes than Dillon and was on the field for four more snaps.
- Watson, Randall Cobb and Romeo Doubs were the three players with more than 40 air yards.
- With the Colts, Eberflus gave up the sixth most yards to TEs and 8 total touchdowns.
2021 Data Provided by SIS
After 4 Weeks of data for 2022, I will update this as 2022 data; for now, I will highlight the differences inside the Data to Know Section.
Offensive Statistics and Tendencies
| Offense | Bears | Packers |
| YPA vs Zone | 6.8 | 8.4 |
| YPA vs Man | 7.0 | 8.4 |
| YPA vs Blitz | 6.3 | 6.5 |
| % TGT to Wide | 25% | 24% |
| % TGT to Slot | 47% | 47% |
| % TGT to RB | 17% | 19% |
| % TGT to TE | 24% | 17% |
| YPC | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Gap Run % | 18.0% | 16.0% |
| Zone Run % | 79.0% | 82.0% |
| Red Zone Pass Rate | 52.0% | 61.0% |
| Red Zone Rush Rate | 48.0% | 39.0% |
Defensive Statistics and Tendencies
| Defense | Bears | Packers |
| Zone Coverage % | 51.0% | 56.0% |
| Man Coverage % | 29.0% | 30.0% |
| Primary Coverage | Cover 1 | Cover 3 |
| Secondary Coverage | Cover 3 | Cover 4 |
| Blitz % | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| Stacked Box % | 19.0% | 9.0% |
| YPC | 4.40 | 4.70 |
Bears vs. Packers DFS: Multiplier Pool
- Aaron Jones
- The price of Jones is way too high; however, this will lower rostership, and he has a high ceiling. The other question becomes, what player is a must-have at their price?
- A.J. Dillon
- He looked the part of the better running back, and with the violent way he runs, I expect him to be getting a lot more goal-line work than Jones.
- Darnell Mooney
- With a low-scoring game, I expect a flex to be the multiplier position, and Mooney fits the idea for a high target % against this soft zone coverage scheme the Packers run.
- Robert Tonyan
- He looked great in Week 1, recovered from that ACL injury, and has always been a multi-touchdown player. With the attention of Dillon and Jones, Tonyan will run free in the red zone.
- Romeo Doubs
- He ran 14 deep routes in Week 1, and I believe his role will be the field stretcher in this offense. At his price, it takes one long ball to be the multiplier.
- Christian Watson
- He led the team in routes run in Week 1, and his price does not reflect that. After missing a lot of time, I expect him to get an expanding role as the weeks go on.
Bears vs. Packers DFS FLEX Pool
- Aaron Rodgers
- I don’t like Rodgers in fantasy, but in a showdown slate like this, it’s hard to avoid him. This game doesn’t have a lot of top-end players, and he should be considered a flex.
- Justin Fields
- Fields will have a ton of rushing upside while playing from behind and is a willing runner in the red zone.
- Allen Lazard
- He didn’t practice enough for me to be comfortable at his price as the multiplier, but there’s a lot to love, with Lazard presumably being the #1 option in this receiving core.
- Byron Pringle
- Pringle only ran four routes in Week 1; however, he led the team in air yards, and I believe he is the second-best WR on this team.
- Mason Crosby
- Kickers in a low-scoring game are in the top six more often than not, and I can see the Packers settling for field goals.
- Packers D/ST
- This defense will be very popular and an excellent spot to get unique by fading. They shouldn’t be avoided if you are playing some of the lower-end multiplier options.
- Cole Kmet
- He had an awful Week 1, but again the weather played a significant factor in that, and I expect a bounce back here for the player that had 93 targets last season.
- Ryan Griffin
- My $200 dart throw is Griffin this week due to the number of routes he ran and how he played towards the red zone. Griffin is in the lead for the backup TE touchdown this week
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