Tennessee Titans WR Treylon Burks came onto the scene with a strong prospect profile before the 2022 NFL Draft. He has elite alpha size paired with great on-field speed and was clocked as fast as 22.6 MPH in college.
He coupled that with an impressive production profile, declared early for the draft and was drafted in the first round. Usually, players who check all of these boxes tend to be our next stars at the wide receiver position. So why isn’t Burks being treated as such?
His rookie season wasn’t amazing by any means, as he dealt with injuries and later with some terrible quarterback play, but there were a lot of positives to take away. I filtered for rookie season comparisons based on weight, relative efficiency, relative production per game and first-round draft capital.
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Burks’ Player Comparisons
Here are a few comparisons:
His closest usage comp is Dez Bryant, as they had very similar rookie seasons within the context of their offenses.
Treylon Burks vs Dez Bryant as rookies
Burks
1st round pick
225 lbs
11 games played
1.75 YPRR
11.6 aDOT
17.6% target shareBryant
1st round pick
220 lbs
12 games played
1.79 YPRR
11.5 aDOT
16.7% target shareBurks is such a screaming buy this year
— Dalton Kates (@Dalton_Kates) May 23, 2023
Kenny Britt shows the potential downside for someone in this range of outcomes, but Britt’s lack of success was mainly tied to injuries. He constantly missed games in his rookie season. Still, Britt has a 1,000-yard season on his résumé and had a sneaky breakout in his second season.
Britt played in 11 games in Year 2, but he left one of those games in the first quarter after one target. So we have 10 full games of Britt with 77.5 yards per game, and in that same year, he leads all WRs with more than 200 routes run with at least 3.03 yards per route run.
Counting stats won’t have that as a true breakout, but on a per-game basis, Britt was in line for a massive breakout season as one of the best wide receivers in the league that season. Having Britt as a close comparison is a good thing for Burks.
Rashod Bateman has dealt with injuries through two seasons, and the jury is still out on him. Bateman came up as a comparison for Burks, but Pro Football Reference has Bateman labeled at 210 pounds, even though he weighed in at the combine at 190. The massive weight discrepancy makes it rather easy to move him as a close comparison to Burks.
Burks Is a Steal
There are questions about the Titans’ passing volume, but it’s obvious Burks is the top option in this offense.
He’s a great talent in an offense with questions around him right now. Within the context of the Titans’ offense, Burks should be one of the more heavily targeted wide receivers in the league. If Tennessee’s quarterbacks can play relatively well, Burks could be in for a nice breakout season and smash his current ADP.
Burks is priced as the WR40 in best ball drafts, which is far too low for someone with his upside. And as WR25 in dynasty, he’s an incredible buy at this price. I’d be thrilled to trade any pick at 1.09 or later in this rookie draft for the opportunity to get Burks on my team.
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