Betting

NFL Divisional Round Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Jaguars vs. Chiefs

Jaguars (9-8) at Chiefs (14-3)

Opening Spread: Chiefs -8.5

Opening Game Total: 51.5

Opening Team Totals: Chiefs (30) Jaguars (21.5)

Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain or snow late in the contest

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Chiefs -8.5
  • This line has moved to Chiefs -9.5
  • This total opened at 51.5-points
  • This total remains at 51.5-points

Notable Injuries

Chiefs: Questionable: WR Mecole Hardman, Edge Frank Clark

Jaguars: Questionable: QB Trevor Lawrence, C Luke Fortner, RG Brandon Scherff

Chiefs Offense vs. Jaguars Defense

I have the Chiefs’ offensive line tiered as a top-ten unit, with one of the best interiors in the league. The Jaguars’ defensive front has been among the more interesting units to evaluate all season. They are young and they are fast, which makes them a top-ten level unit when they are at their best. They have also been an inconsistent group this season, which is why I have them tiered as more of a league-average unit. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw from a macro sense, but the Chiefs’ offensive interior has a moderate advantage while the Jaguars’ edge duo has a mild advantage in this matchup.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Chiefs are 7-10 against the spread this season
  • The Chiefs are 8-9 on overs this season
  • Patrick Mahomes is 41-37-2 against the spread in his career
  • Patrick Mahomes is 42-37-1 on overs in his career
  • Andy Reid is 197-166-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach
  • Andy Reid is 181-178-11 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach

Chiefs Offense

  • The Chiefs scored 29.2 points per game, which was the best in the league
  • Kansas City is first in the league in yards passing per game and 20th in yards rushing
  • The Chiefs are passing on 67% of their plays and running on 33% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
  • Per the Edge, Isiah Pacheco has at least 58 yards rushing in eight of his last nine games
  • Jerick McKinnon has a touchdown in each of his last six games, with a total of nine scores during that span
  • Isiah Pacheco has been the Chiefs’ primary ball carrier since Week 10 against the Jaguars, while McKinnon takes on the bulk of the passing game and goal line work
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster finished the year with 78 receptions for 933 yards receiving and three touchdowns on a 17.1% target share and a 17.2% air yards share
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling finished the year with 42 receptions for 687 yards receiving and two touchdowns on a 13.25 target share and a 25.5% air yards share
  • Travis Kelce finished the year with the third-most receptions in the league (110), eighth in yards receiving (1,338), and second in receiving touchdowns (12)
  • Kelce finished third among tight ends in target share (24.9%) and third in air yards share (24.2%)
  • Per TruMedia, JuJu Smith-Schuster played 433 snaps on the perimeter and 298 in the slot this season
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling played 469 snaps on the perimeter and 264 in the slot this season
  • Travis Kelce played 321 snaps as an in-line tight end, 223 on the perimeter, and 313 in the slot this season

Jaguars Defense

  • The Jaguars allowed 20.6 points per game, which is 12th in the league
  • Jacksonville is 25th in the league in sacks, fourth in forced fumbles, and 12th in interceptions
  • Per The Edge, the Jaguars allowed the 24th-most yards rushing per game and the third-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • Jacksonville gave up the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • Jacksonville gave up the sixth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers this year
  • The Jaguars allowed the fourth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
  • The Jaguars allowed the second-most PPR points per game to tight ends in the slot this season 

 

Jaguars Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

Since Jaguars left tackle Cam Robinson went down with an injury, I’ve tiered the Jaguars’ offensive line towards the front of league-average. I have the Chiefs’ defensive front tiered as a fringe top-ten unit. From a macro sense, I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw. However, Jaguars center Luke Fortner and right guard Brandon Scherff are both on the injury report. If either of those players miss this contest, especially Scherff, that’s a significant problem for the Jaguars, as Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones is one of the premium interior players in the league.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Jaguars are 8-9 against the spread this season
  • The Jaguars are 8-9 on overs this season
  • Trevor Lawrence is 13-21 against the spread in his career
  • Trevor Lawrence is 13-21 on overs in his career
  • Doug Pederson is 46-51 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
  • Doug Pederson is 47-50 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach

Jaguars Offense

  • The Jaguars scored 23.8 points per game, good for tenth in the league
  • Jacksonville is 12th in the league in yards passing per game and 14th in yards rushing
  • The Jaguars are passing on 62% of their plays and running on 38% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
  • Per the Edge, Travis Etienne finished ninth in the league in yards rushing with 1,125 and 15th among running backs in yards receiving with 316
  • Christian Kirk finished the year with 84 receptions for 1,108 yards receiving and eight touchdowns on a 23.2% target share and a 29.4% air yards share
  • Zay Jones finished the year with 82 receptions for 823 yards receiving and five touchdowns on a 22.1% target share and a 25.9% air yards share
  • Marvin Jones finished the year with 46 receptions for 529 yards receiving and three touchdowns on a 14.6% target share with a 26.8% air yards share
  • Evan Engram finished the year with 73 receptions for 766 yards receiving and four touchdowns on a 17% target share and a 14.4% air yards share
  • Per TruMedia, Christian Kirk played 288 snaps on the perimeter and 635 in the slot this season
  • Zay Jones played 602 snaps on the perimeter and 278 in the slot this season
  • Marvin Jones played 580 snaps on the perimeter and 93 in the slot this season
  • Evan Engram played 381 snaps as an in-line tight end, 158 on the perimeter, and 271 in the slot this season

Chiefs Defense

  • The Chiefs allowed 21.7 points per game, which is 16th in the league
  • Kansas City is second in the league in sacks, 18th in forced fumbles, and 21st in interceptions
  • Per The Edge, the Chiefs allowed the 25th-most yards rushing per game and the fourth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • Kansas City gave up the 18th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • Kansas City gave up the seventh-most PPR points per game to slots receivers this year
  • The Chiefs allowed the 20th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
  • The Chiefs have allowed the most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot this year

This Is What You’re Betting on

After a brutal, four-interception first half against the Chargers last week, Trevor Lawrence and his Jaguars came roaring back from a 27-0 deficit to beat Los Angeles 31-30. Kansas City is coming off a bye as the AFC’s top seed. The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 27-17 back in Week 10.

If You’re Betting on the Chiefs

Any bet on the Chiefs always starts as a bet on Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s offense. This week you get the added bonus of Andy Reid coming off a bye, making his Chiefs an even tougher out. Kansas City doesn’t need to reach its lofty team total of 30 points to win this game, but it’s going to greatly increase its chances of covering if it does. If I’m betting on the Chiefs, I’m building that bet around Patrick Mahomes’ offense at least meeting expectations.

Trevor Lawrence is quickly becoming one of those quarterbacks that you don’t want to bet against. In this matchup the Chiefs’ defensive front could end up with a noteworthy advantage if Jaguars’ high-end right guard Brandon Scherff either misses or is limited in this contest. In that scenario, Chiefs’ premium defensive tackle Chris Jones could be a game-wrecker. If I’m considering a Chiefs bet, Scherff’s status is something I’m keeping an eye on as we get closer to game time. Your biggest concern as a Chiefs bettor is that Trevor Lawrence has already arrived and he can lose by a full touchdown, yet still cover. 

If You’re Betting on the Jaguars

It would not surprise me in the slightest if this was the last time a Trevor Lawrence team is a two-score underdog. The Jaguars are much more of a young, ascending team than one that’s ready to win right now. But as we saw last week, Trevor Lawrence is a dangerous man, and no lead is safe when he’s in comeback mode. If you’re betting on the Jaguars, you are building that bet around Trevor Lawrence’s offense keeping this game within one score.

Your biggest concern as a Jaguars bettor is obvious: The Chiefs are the measuring stick in the AFC. Oddsmakers expect Patrick Mahomes to breach 300 yards passing virtually every week. If Mahomes threw for 400 yards and five scores in this contest, it wouldn’t be that big of a surprise. That type of performance is your primary concern as a Jaguars bettor. Your second is that Jacksonville is coming off an emotional come-from-behind win, and now it is facing the Chiefs off a bye. 

Generally speaking I like to bet against teams that “emptied the tank” the week before like Jacksonville did. But as now 9.5-point underdogs, the Jaguars can have a semi-middling game and still cover, provided they don’t allow Patrick Mahomes to go absolutely postal.

 

Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Jaguars 24

Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 48-32

Props 2022: 60-40

Scroll to the Top