Expert Analysis
11/25/23
7 min read
Can Dorian Thompson-Robinson Lead Cleveland Browns to NFL Playoffs?
With a win against their divisional rival Pittsburgh Steelers last week in Cleveland, the 7-3 Cleveland Browns have positioned themselves to make a legitimate push not only to the playoffs but to a divisional championship.
While P.J. Walker and recent veteran acquisition Joe Flacco are both under contract, the Browns have elected to play rookie fifth-round pick Dorian Thompson-Robinson once again this week in the wake of Deshaun Watson’s season-ending injury.
With a blend of smart play calling in the passing game and a productive run game, head coach and play caller Kevin Stefanski orchestrated a master class in continuity football, doing everything to minimize Thompson-Robinson’s ability to hurt the team throwing the football while allowing his league-leading defense and strong special teams unit to control field position.
Although Thompson-Robinson threw 43 passes, his very average stat line of 24 completions for only 165 yards, no TDs, and one interception was made up of screens and short throws, with few deep balls or passes attacking the middle of the field.
Last week’s strategic yet unproductive and ineffective passing game begs the question, can Cleveland sustain their winning ways with this formula? Let’s look at the tape.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson in College
At UCLA, Thompson-Robinson was a five-year starter in Chip Kelly’s offense. He showed year-to-year improvement while gaining significant comfortability in the UCLA offense, which allowed him to quickly work through progressions and make decisions. During the 2022 season, he amassed 3,169 yards passing with 27 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while completing 69.6 percent of his throws.
In my pre-draft scouting of Thompson-Robinson, I noted that he showed good ball staging fundamentals and clean, consistent footwork that complemented his NFL-level arm strength and short-to-medium accuracy. At the NFL Combine, he tied Josh Allen’s throwing velocity record with a 62 MPH throw. Combined with his natural and more than sufficient athleticism, I felt that Thompson-Robinson was draft-worthy and believe the Browns made good use of their fifth-round pick.
However, there were plays on his college tape that made it clear Thompson-Robinson had work to do. He had a clear tendency to turn the ball over with seven interceptions and five lost fumbles in his final five college games. The turnovers combined with inconsistent deep ball accuracy and lack of outside lane completions undoubtedly led to his drop in the draft.
Looking at Thompson-Robinson’s Two NFL Starts
Through two uneven NFL starts, Thompson-Robinson’s college flaws have come to the forefront, while his strengths have not yet translated in his rookie season.
In a 28-3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4 he performed poorly, completing just 19 of 36 passes for only 121 yards and no touchdowns while throwing three interceptions.
Cleveland inserted him into the regular offense run by Watson, calling an array of NFL concepts and not necessarily giving him many easy, candy-store completions. He did not look comfortable at any point throughout that Week 4 loss, second-guessing himself, abandoning his mechanics and recklessly forcing several throws into coverage.
It was clear on tape against Baltimore that Thompson-Robinson did not have the comfort in the offense that he displayed at UCLA, and that it might take time for him to develop a similar understanding of Stefanski’s system. On a positive note, his performance against the Ravens, while very poor, might have paved the way for Stefanski and his offensive staff to find a formula for success to follow.
This past week against Pittsburgh, the offensive game plan was entirely different. Stefanski emphasized a basic passing attack, calling more screens and simple Day 1 training camp installation pass plays. This appeared to give the rookie quarterback confidence and allowed him to make quicker decisions to get the ball out of his hand and minimize the numerous reckless throws made in Week 4.
With third-string left tackle Geron Christian and second-string right tackle James Hudson forced to start due to injury, the Browns stuck to an abundance of short passes and relied on continuity football, winning with defense and special teams that allowed Cleveland to win the field position battle.
In contrast to Week 4’s wide variety of pass game concepts against Baltimore, Stefanski’s game plan against the Steelers included the repetition of pass concepts throughout the game, which allowed Thompson-Robinson to gain valuable game reps and comfortability. This formula proved effective enough to steal a win against the Steelers with Thompson-Robinson leading a game-winning drive.
With all this in mind, it’s clear that Thompson-Robinson must improve and play better for Cleveland to continue their winning ways.
Overall, the rookie has simply been inaccurate, completing only 55 percent of his passes. Although he’s shown flashes of the explosive arm talent seen on his UCLA tape, his inconsistent drops and at times extended release have hurt his ability to regularly get the ball out on time.
Too often his lower half mechanics have been sloppy, with elongated steps that cause him to be late on throws. This has resulted in inaccurate throws arriving high, low, and behind receivers. When his footwork is on point, however, we see it all come together as a passer, as he generates force from his lower half with an even weight distribution, resulting in accurate throws with good velocity.
Within the pocket, Thompson-Robinson’s nimble feet have translated, but he’s struggled to work the pocket and escape pressure thus far in the NFL, which was a strength of his in college. He’s converted only three first downs with his legs, and his athleticism has not appeared as dynamic as I projected entering the pro level.
Due to Thompson-Robinson’s apparent inconsistency reading NFL defenses and working through more complex offensive concepts, Stefanski wisely made the decision to take the ball out of his hands and call basic offensive pass concepts to limit mistakes. To accentuate Thompson-Robinson’s strengths further, I think we will see this continue with more screens, boots, and play-action (where he’s completed eight of 10 in his two starts).
What to Expect Moving Forward
With seven games remaining on the schedule, the Browns have the 10th-easiest remaining scheduled based on strength of record (.479) and one of their remaining opponents with a winning record is the Cincinnati Bengals, who will be starting Jake Browning the rest of the way.
With one of the NFL’s best defenses, a strong rushing attack that ranks third in the NFL with 142.7 yards per game, a strong punter in Corey Bojorquez (49.8-yard average) and kicker Dustin Hopkins (most made field goals), look for Stefanski to continue to use the “Steeler Formula” to win games.
That will mean minimizing Thompson-Robinson’s opportunity to force throws and turn the ball over until he can gain more game experience and earn his head coach’s trust.
After signing Flacco this week, the Browns now have two veteran quarterbacks who can be inserted into the lineup if Thompson-Robinson is unable to show improvement. Walker, a journeyman passer, has already started two games this season and has struggled as well. But he has also had winning stretches in his NFL career, with a 5-4 career record as a starter.
Meanwhile, the 38-year-old Flacco’s addition could help Cleveland in multiple ways. The former Super Bowl MVP could help mentor Thompson-Robinson over the next several weeks as he learns the playbook and nuances of Stefanski’s offense.
Regardless of how the season going forward unfolds for Cleveland, expect Stefanski’s winning formula used against the Steelers with Thompson-Robinson under center to be on display this weekend against the Broncos.
If the Cleveland quarterbacks can take care of the football and the defense and special teams can continue to play at the highest level, the Browns will be in every game in the fourth quarter with an opportunity to win. Thompson-Robinson showed he can get this done last week and will get one more chance this weekend against an improved Broncos defense in Denver.
