NFL Analysis
10/27/24
6 min read
It's Time to Panic About Anthony Richardson, Colts' Future
It's been a brutal start to the season for Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson. While it's getting harder to justify him starting over Joe Flacco in the short term, there's still a path for him to become the long-term answer in Indianapolis.
The Colts lost 23-20 to the Houston Texans due to a brutal game from the offense. Richardson completed just 10-of-32 passes for 175 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Not only did he complete fewer than a third of his passes, but he also averaged just 5.5 yards per pass attempt.
RBSDM tells just as brutal of a story, crediting Richardson with a -5.5 total EPA and -0.13 EPA per dropback in the loss.
Even Richardson's final drive was disappointing. The Colts quarterback made questionable decisions trying to get his team into field goal range, from scrambling and not running out of bounds to taking a sack on the final play of the game instead of trying to heave the ball into the end zone.
Things have gotten so much worse for Richardson in 2024, and it could be holding the Colts back from being a playoff team.
What's Wrong with Richardson?
The knee-jerk reactions behind Richardson's struggles are injuries and inexperience.
Richardson's promising start to his NFL career was derailed by multiple injuries as a rookie. After suffering a concussion early in his rookie season, he was sidelined for the rest of the year due to season-ending shoulder surgery that he continued to rehab from deep into the offseason.
Injury issues have popped up again for Richardson in 2024. He has missed another two games this season due to a nagging hip/oblique injury suffered against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The injuries are even more frustrating because Richardson is a quarterback who desperately needs more playing experience. He has only played in 10 NFL games and threw fewer than 400 pass attempts at the college level for the Florida Gators.
The concerns about injuries and inexperience are fair assessments, but they don't tell the entire story.
Richardson is becoming far too reliant on being a "big game hunter." According to Pro Football Focus, Richardson attempted more passes 20-plus yards downfield (11) than he did on throws 10 yards or fewer downfield (10). He completed just 2-of-11 deep shots, but that included a crucial touchdown to Josh Downs.
Richardson finished Sunday with an average depth of target of 15.8 yards, which feels standard for him at this point. However, that's not a sustainable way to play quarterback, especially if the Colts want consistent offensive success by moving down the field.
The problem is that Richardson is struggling mightily on short throws. Richardson has completed just 57.8 percent of his passes 0-9 yards downfield with three interceptions, zero touchdowns, and a 43.2 passer rating.
Richardson has also been brutal at converting on third down. According to TruMedia, Richardson has completed 35.5 percent of his passes on third down, leading to zero touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 31.5. Throws like this one earlier in the year highlight how erratic he is on third-down attempts.
I will never give up on Anthony Richardson
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) September 23, 2024
ever
...but this is a ROUGH miss on the opening 3rd down in Week 3. 6'3" Alec Pierce can't even get an outstretched hand on it. pic.twitter.com/3WEd2mmbZL
If Richardson can't make the layups and can't move the chains, then the Colts offense can't find any kind of success.
Joe Flacco might be ready to take over as the starter, and he probably should if the Colts want to make the playoffs. However, the Colts can't completely give up on their second-year quarterback.
How The Colts Can Save Their QB
As bad as things have looked, there is still a path forward for Richardson and the Colts because the second-year quarterback is simply too talented to give up on.
One of the biggest missing pieces in the Colts offense is an impact tight end. Kylen Granson and Mo Ali-Cox aren't bad players, but they don't have the kind of every-down ability that could open up many things underneath in Shane Steichen's offense. On top of that, a star tight end could give the Colts more unique ways to draw up designed runs for Richardson to utilize his size and mobility.
The good news for the Colts is that a handful of exciting tight ends are likely to emerge for the 2025 NFL Draft. Penn State's Tyler Warren is a versatile and athletic weapon with great body control who can also be an impact blocker.
Other tight end prospects to monitor include LSU's Mason Taylor, Michigan's Colston Loveland, and Notre Dame's Mitchell Evans. Any of these players could be worthwhile picks in the earlier rounds of the 2025 draft.
A tight end could set Richardson up with some easier layups in the passing game, as could more proper utilization of slot receiver Josh Downs. The second-year receiver had the biggest impact of anyone on Sunday, catching four passes for 109 yards and a touchdown.
However, almost all of that production was due to deep shots. According to PFF, Downs was targeted five times on routes 10 yards or fewer downfield but caught just two passes for 16 yards despite 17 yards generated after the catch.
The Next Gen Stats route chart for Downs shows a player needing more opportunities to get involved on short passes or even concepts going across the middle of the field.
The Colts also need to figure out ways to get rookie receiver AD Mitchell more involved. He has just 11 catches for 118 yards through eight games this season despite getting open on a consistent basis.
Some of that is on Mitchell, who is still getting acclimated to the NFL level of play. He also needs to work on getting on the same page with Richardson and getting his feet in bounds on deep shots like this one.
So close to hitting AD Mitchell for six #Colts#ForTheShoe#Texans#HTownMade#INDvsHOU pic.twitter.com/t2BKyHVUpZ
— Chris Shepherd (@NFLscheme) October 27, 2024
Layups need to be a bigger part of the Colts passing game because they have a solid running game with Richardson's legs and star RB Jonathan Taylor.
There's still a workable offensive roster with a few spots to build around Richardson. Regardless of whether they bench him or not, designing more easy shots for him in 2025 with an ascending slot receiver in Downs and a top tight end could be what he needs to turn his career around.
