NFL Analysis
3/21/25
5 min read
Why Daniel Jones Will Be This Year's Breakout Quarterback
Daniel Jones will be “this year’s Sam Darnold.”
I’m calling my shot right here right now in March, more than five months before he’d even be in position to take a meaningful snap with his new team, the Indianapolis Colts.
I know, I know. Daniel Jones “sucks” and never should’ve gotten drafted as high as he did in 2019 or been awarded the four-year, $160 million deal he signed with the Giants in 2023. Like you, I’ve heard it all a hundred times.
And yet, I don’t care — at all.
The Mayfield-Darnold Pathway
Nobody thought Baker Mayfield would have a breakout season in 2023 after being jettisoned by the team that took him No. 1 overall, the Cleveland Browns, and playing for both the Carolina Panthers and the Los Angeles Rams in 2022.
Yet, that is exactly what he did. Mayfield had a resurgent season that saw him lead the Buccaneers to an NFC South title and a playoff victory against the Philadelphia Eagles, on his way to inking a new three-year, $100 million deal to remain QB1 in Tampa.
If that sounds familiar, it’s because a similar script played out last season with Darnold, also like Mayfield on his fourth team and previously flaming out in Carolina. He had a career year leading the Vikings to the postseason on his way to an almost identical three-year, $100 million deal with the Seattle Seahawks.
Can anyone have a Mayfield/Darnold-like bounce-back season in 2025? My money is on the man once affectionately known as “Danny Dimes.”
As we all witnessed with Mayfield and Darnold, so much of the quarterback position is the coaching and talent around you. How set up is the quarterback for success?
Mayfield’s last two offensive coordinators are now head coaches, and he was throwing the ball to two elite wide receivers: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. And, oh yeah, the Buccaneers had an excellent offensive line.
Darnold’s head coach, Kevin O’Connell, was the NFL’s Coach of the Year in part because of how he helped Darnold improve. Throwing the ball to the likes of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson certainly didn’t hurt, either.
New York Is a QB Graveyard
Unfortunately for Jones and pretty much any recent Giants quarterback, the answer to how well-positioned they are to succeed has been “not very.”
One look at the skill position talent around him, especially at wide receiver, and the line that the Giants still haven’t fixed, and you can see some of the major reasons he struggled.
The belief is that Jones could flourish in a better environment. There’s a guy named Saquon who is a recent good example of that.
Even with the issues surrounding him in New York, Jones did enough to help get the Giants to the playoffs in 2022 on the strength of a three-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio while adding seven touchdowns on the ground to go with more than 700 yards rushing.
In fact, his best performance probably came in a road playoff victory against the Minnesota Vikings. He threw for more than 300 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions and rushed for more than 70 yards, which led to the monster contract he got from the Giants in 2023.
Indianapolis Is Jones' Last Chance
Now, he’s in Indianapolis in what is being called a “competition” with recent top-five pick Anthony Richardson. However, the Colts are clearly paying him $14 million this season for a reason. With a general manager in Chris Ballard and head coach in Shane Steichen clearly needing to win this season, they can’t afford to continue to endure Richardson’s growing pains.
This will immediately be the best skill position group that Jones has ever played with. Not only do the Colts have an elite running back in Jonathan Taylor, but they have an above-average receiving corps featuring Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs.
And that might not be all, as several prominent mock drafts have the Colts selecting either Penn State TE Tyler Warren or Michigan TE Colston Loveland with their first-round pick.
Jones will also very likely have the best offensive line of his career, although the Colts have some work to do there after the losses of Ryan Kelly and Will Fries to the Vikings.
The key, though, may be Steichen. My guess is that Steichen looks at Jones’ skill set and decides to run an offense similar to the one he coordinated in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts in 2022 on the Eagles’ way to the Super Bowl.
That means a lot of RPOs (Run Pass Options) that serve to get the ball out of Jones’ hands quickly and utilize his unique ability as a runner. Like Hurts, the longer Jones holds the ball in the pocket, the worse he is. Quick reads in the run and pass game could be the recipe for the best season of his career.
Yes, a high volume of runs, given Jones’ injury history, is a risk, but at this point, it’s now or never in terms of resuscitating his career. Not just for him but for Ballard and Steichen as well.
Like Darnold and Mayfield before him, I am betting on Danny Dimes
