What is the Next Wave of Super Bowl-Winning Quarterbacks?
Analysis 6/22/23
As a former NFL coach who went to Super Bowl XXXVI behind the stellar play of Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner and lost that game to future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady, I saw firsthand the importance of having an elite quarterback when making a run through the NFL playoffs.
>> READ: Ranking NFL History's Best QBs
History of Super Bowl-Winning QBs
The history of the NFL playoffs reveals an undeniable truth: Super Bowls are won by Hall of Fame quarterbacks.
There have been 57 Super Bowl winners so far. Twenty-eight teams were led by a quarterback who made the Hall of Fame. Another 13 were led by a quarterback who will eventually make the Hall of Fame (Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger). Forty-one out of 57 teams (71.9 percent) were led by a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback.
NFL teams on the losing side of the Super Bowl have also largely been led by Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks.
A Hall of Fame quarterback led 19 losing teams, with another eight being quarterbacked by a future Hall of Famer. Those 27 games represent 47.4 percent of all Super Bowl losses.
In total, there have been 114 teams that played in the Super Bowl, and 68 of them were led by a quarterback who eventually made the Hall of Fame or is likely to get inducted.
Astonishingly, there have only been seven of 57 Super Bowls where neither quarterback in the game made the Hall of Fame or is on a Hall of Fame trajectory. That means 87.7 percent of all Super Bowl games featured a Hall of Fame quarterback.
This trend is only becoming more prevalent. Since 2000, we’ve seen four quarterbacks (Brady, Peyton Manning, Mahomes and Roethlisberger) account for 13 of the past 23 Super Bowls.
An elite quarterback can elevate an entire team, so it’s paramount for NFL teams without one to search for a quarterback at that level. That can happen through the draft, free agency or internal development.
What makes these quarterbacks so rare and difficult to find is they are built differently in their mindset and preparation. It is what allows them to keep winning year after year.
Five current NFL quarterbacks fit this mold.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes is a near-lock for the Hall of Fame and already has two Super Bowl victories. He’s on a terrific football team and is paired with a great coach in Andy Reid. It would not surprise me if, at the end of his career, Mahomes is seen as a top-three or even the best quarterback of all time.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
While Mahomes is on a level of his own, Joe Burrow would be the player right behind him. He has great leadership qualities and already has led the Cincinnati Bengals to a Super Bowl and two AFC championship games in his first three seasons.
He’s also paired with two terrific wide receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert is my favorite quarterback on this list, with his unusual passing skills. He can put the ball wherever he wants. He has all the talent in the world but could be held back by his team — the Los Angeles Chargers just aren’t good.
Philip Rivers was an excellent quarterback, but he couldn’t win anything with the Chargers. The same fate could be true for Herbert.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts is a bit of a system quarterback who has excelled in Philadelphia with the pieces they put around him. Coach Nick Sirianni and former offensive coordinator Shane Steichen engineered an offense that allowed all of Hurts’ strengths to shine through.
General manager Howie Roseman invested heavily in surrounding Hurts with adequate weapons (A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert). Hurts is in the perfect situation to continue to ascend and win a Super Bowl or two during the next decade.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
I know people are down on Russell Wilson after his play in 2022. In his new situation with coach Sean Payton, he still has two to three years to win another Super Bowl. A second Super Bowl and nine Pro Bowl nods would give him a strong shot at the Hall of Fame.
One challenge for Wilson is he plays in a division with two other quarterbacks on this list (Mahomes, Herbert).
Mike Martz is a former NFL head coach and offensive coordinator, most notably for the St. Louis Rams. He was the OC for the Rams’ "Greatest Show on Turf" offense in 1999 when they won Super Bowl XXXIV. As head coach, he led the Rams to two division titles. and an appearance in Super Bowl XXXVI.