NFL Betting Impact of Packers-Jets Aaron Rodgers Trade
Betting 4/24/23
Now that Aaron Rodgers is finally a member of the New York Jets, how does that trade impact betting markets? Let’s take a look.
Jets' 9.5 Win Total Stays Put or Goes Up
This 9.5 line was available well before DraftKings released the rest of the league’s win totals. This number was based on the expectation that Rodgers would be the Jets’ new quarterback.
Now that the trade is official, it wouldn’t make much sense for this number to go down unless it was related to an unpredictable offseason injury. I’m not crazy about the -130 juice on this option, which has already jumped to -145 in the minutes after the trade, but the line itself can only go up now that he’s officially with the team.
Jets Are +1400 to Win Super Bowl
The Jets were +4000 to win the 2023-2024 Super Bowl in January. They’ve been in the +1400 range in this market for weeks now. The expectation of Rodgers landing in New York already has been baked into these lines.
Rodgers Makes Jets Real Threat to Win Division
Right now, the Jets are +250 on DraftKings to win the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills are the favorite at +130, the Miami Dolphins are +300, and the New England Patriots are +800. I’m not a massive fan of division bets because you have to tie up money for over half a year for +250-type odds. That said, I do like the Jets to win it.
Rodgers Also Hurts Rest of Division OVER Bets
The Jets’ win total was released as if Rodgers were already part of the team, which means that the Bills’, Dolphins’ and Patriots’ win total calculations also projected New York as a quality team. If Zach Wilson were the Jets’ opening-day starter, all three of their AFC East rivals would have a real shot of sweeping New York. Now that Rodgers is in town? You’re looking at a split or worse for all three of these teams, making an under more likely now that the trade is official.
Awards Markets
On DraftKings, Rodgers is +1600 to win the MVP, and Robert Saleh is +1200 to win Coach of the Year. More often than not, the MVP is the quarterback of the best team in its conference. The AFC is loaded with contenders, so I have little to no interest in Rodgers winning the MVP at 16-1 odds.
Saleh has a path to taking down the Coach of the Year since the Jets won just seven games last season. If New York makes a sizable jump into the 11- or 12-win range, there’s a good chance that Rodgers gets a lot of the credit. Ultimately, I will wait and see if I can get Saleh at better odds in this market between now and opening day.