Expert Analysis
11/13/24
13 min read
7 NFL Teams on the Rise Entering Second Half of 2024 Season
With the 2024 NFL season past the mid-point and soon to enter the stretch run, the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs and once-beaten Detroit Lions are at the top of their conferences.
That’s hardly a surprise for the Chiefs, as they’re seeking the first Super Bowl three-peat, or the Lions, a final four team last season and one of the NFC Super Bowl favorites entering the year.
Several other teams are on the rise because they are on winning streaks, overcoming early struggles, or outperforming preseason expectations and staying on the path to success.
Here are seven teams — three in the AFC and four in the NFC — to keep a close eye on down the stretch aside from the Chiefs and Lions or other expected contenders such as the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, last season’s top seeds in the AFC and NFC, respectively, who seemingly have overcome early bumps in the road due to lineup changes and injury issues.
7 NFL SECOND-HALF RISERS
BUFFALO BILLS 
Many NFL analysts (including me) assumed the Buffalo Bills would have a difficult time holding off the Dolphins and possibly the Jets to win their fifth straight AFC East title. Due to salary cap issues, they lost several starters, including starting wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, center Mitch Morse, safety Jordan Poyer, and edge rusher Leonard Floyd.
Buffalo has rebooted with many new starters, and the team is riding one of QB Josh Allen’s best seasons to an 8-2 record, a five-game winning streak, and a stranglehold 4.5 game lead in the division over the disappointing Dolphins, while the Jets are floundering.
Allen ranks 10th in passer rating (100.2), fourth in touchdown passes (17), and has run for 261 yards with four rushing touchdowns. He had interception issues last season, with 18 (second-most). He threw no picks in the first seven games before tossing four in the last three weeks, but the Bills still won all three games. He’s on pace for a career-low in interceptions.
Allen is one of the frontrunners for NFL MVP, and Sean McDermott is a Coach of the Year candidate for the excellent job he has done in keeping the Bills as one of the league’s top teams. The key is their plus-13 turnover margin, which leads the league. The defense has 19 takeaways to rank second, and the offense has only six giveaways (third-fewest). That translates to winning football.
Buffalo has a challenging next four games starting this Sunday when it hosts the Chiefs. Kansas City is Buffalo’s nemesis team, who has knocked them out of the playoffs in three of the last four seasons, including a 27-24 divisional round home loss last year.
After the Bills’ Week 12 bye, they are home against the 49ers, then at the Rams and Lions, before finishing with the Patriots twice and the Jets.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Given Jim Harbaugh’s NFL and college coaching success, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC playoff mix with a 6-3 record and capitalizing on their fourth-place schedule after only five wins last season.
The six teams the Chargers have beaten have a combined record of 17-40, and all are .500 or worse. The schedule toughens with the desperate Bengals coming to SoFi Stadium on Sunday night, followed by a home game with the Ravens and road tests at division leaders Atlanta and Kansas City. Then, the schedule softens again down the stretch.
This team has enough star power among the players and coaches to be headed toward a wild-card berth. Harbaugh would like his rushing attack to be better than 19th in the league, but he has J.K. Dobbins on pace for the best season of his career with 670 rushing yards and six TDs.
Pro Bowl QB Justin Herbert is having an excellent season despite losing his starting wide receivers from 2023 — Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Herbert ranks seventh in passer rating (103.2) and has thrown only one interception this season.
The Chargers defense has played well so far, with a No. 6 ranking overall. It’s also the top-ranked scoring defense, allowing only 13.1 points allowed per game. The defense has several veteran stars, including Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa (when healthy), and Derwin James.
A big key to their success is a plus 9 turnover margin (second-ranked) with only four giveaways, the fewest in the league.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Pittsburgh Steelers were a playoff team last season but had a quick exit with a 14-point wild-card round defeat at Buffalo. They entered this season with two new QBs, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Wilson suffered a calf injury, which sidelined him during training camp and the first six games of the regular season.
Fields led the team to a 3-0 start before losses to the Colts and Cowboys. One of the NFL’s best coaches, Mike Tomlin, didn’t flinch or show any signs of panic. His eighth-ranked defense allowed only 15 points per game in wins in the next three weeks and beat the Commanders 28-27 last Sunday.
On offense, Pittsburgh has the No. 8 rushing attack led by Najee Harris (645 yards). But Tomlin sought more production in the passing game and calmly handed the reigns to Wilson in Week 7. The nine-time Pro Bowler has won all three starts with an impressive 105.9 passer rating (six TD passes and only one pick).
In an odd schedule twist, the 7-2 Steelers have all six of their AFC North matchups upcoming in the last eight games. It starts at home on Sunday with a showdown against Baltimore, which is a half-game behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North race. Their rematch is in Week 16 at Baltimore.
There are also home and homes against Cincinnati and Cleveland. Adding to the degree of difficulty are Philadelphia (away) and Kansas City (home) as the other two remaining opponents, so it is a difficult stretch ahead.
The Steelers have veteran leaders and top producers in T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, and Minkah Fitzpatrick on defense, Wilson on offense, and Tomlin at the helm. They should lead the way during the second half of the season to a division title or another wild card berth.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Talk about shockers — who saw the Arizona Cardinals (a 4-13 team last season) leading the NFC West through 10 games in a division with two 2023 playoff teams in the 49ers and Rams and Seattle, winners of nine games last season?
Arizona (6-4) has won four straight games, with the last two in dominant fashion — 29-9 against the Bears and 31-6 against the Jets. The Cardinals blew out the Rams 41-10 in Week 2 and upset the 49ers 24-23 on the road in Week 5.
QB Kyler Murray is fully recovered from his late-2022 ACL injury, and he’s having his best season with a 100.8 passer rating (ranking 10th), 12 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, 371 rushing yards, and four touchdowns.
He’s coming off a superb game in the demolition of the Jets, in which he completed 22 of 24 passes (92%) for 266 yards and one touchdown. He also ran for two touchdowns.
James Conner is the league’s eighth-leading rusher with 697 yards (5 TDs). The Cardinals' offense ranks 11th, while Jonathan Gannon’s defense ranks 21st. Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker was not traded as rumored, which is a good thing for the Cardinals as he leads the team with 100 tackles and seven tackles for loss.
Arizona has an excellent shot of making the playoffs as the NFC West champs or a wild-card team. Its challenging but manageable remaining schedule includes two games with Seattle, road games at Minnesota, Carolina, and the Rams, and home games with the Patriots and 49ers. The division title could be decided in the final week when Arizona hosts San Francisco.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Minnesota Vikings, who let stars Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter walk in free agency. Sam Darnold was expected to be Coach Kevin O’Connell’s short-term bridge to No.1 pick J.J. McCarthy at quarterback. The defense had six new starters for coordinator Brian Flores to break in.
The early season schedule was brutal, with three 2023 playoff teams in the first five weeks, plus facing the two New York teams on the road.
I’ve always said the best thing for a team is to exceed expectations. The Vikings have done exactly that with their 5-0 start, which included home wins against San Francisco and Houston and a road win at Green Bay.
It was followed by a hiccup with two losses in five days to the Lions and Rams. Then, the Vikings rebounded with a prime-time win against the Colts and a dominating performance except for three Sam Darnold interceptions in a road win at Jacksonville.
At 7-2, the Vikings are unlikely to overtake the Lions, whom they close the season against and trail by one game in the tough NFC North. Minnesota is in great shape for a first or second wild-card spot with a favorable remaining schedule that includes the next two weeks on the road against teams currently struggling—Tennessee and Chicago—and then three in a row at home (vs. Arizona, Atlanta, and Chicago).
Darnold played great early in the season when he was among the league leaders in passer rating and touchdown passes. He’s returned to earth the past two weeks with five interceptions in the two victories.
O’Connell is a quarterback whisperer who got Cousins to play the best of his career. I think O’Connell will get Darnold back to making better decisions and more accurate passing to his excellent supporting cast led by Pro Bowlers Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson.
If the Minnesota defense continues to lead the NFL in takeaways (20) and interceptions (15), it can fuel a potential challenge to the Lions in the NFC North and a playoff run.
The front office, O’Connell, and Flores did a tremendous job of identifying and coaching up productive free agents, including edges Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, inside linebacker Blake Cashman, and corners Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin.
Darnold (99.2 passer rating, which ranks 12th) and top running back Aaron Jones (911 combined yards rushing and receiving) were astute signings on offense.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Philadelphia Eagles were cruising at 10-1 last season before they went into the tank with six losses in their last seven games to hand the NFC East to Dallas.
Then, Philly was blown out 31-7 in the wild-card round at Tampa Bay. The pass defense that had led the league in the Super Bowl season of 2022 fell hard to No. 31, forcing a retooling of the secondary. There also were rumblings of a rift between Nick Sirianni and $51 million per year QB Jalen Hurts.
A 2-2 start this season included another stinker at Tampa Bay in Week 4 (a 33-16 loss) with star receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith out, Hurts getting sacked six times, and Baker Mayfield passing for 347 yards and two touchdowns.
That game put Sirianni back on the hot seat, but things look a lot better for him and the team now that they’re on a five-game winning streak, although they are all against losing teams.
The surge has been fueled by strong play from Hurts, who is back to his Pro Bowl form with a passer rating over 115 in all five recent victories. He has rushed for 378 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, with the Tush Push still working well without retired All-Pro center Jason Kelce. It is a concern that he’s been sacked 26 times, the sixth-most.
Brown and Smith are healthy now and having fine seasons. Saquon Barkley has been a tremendous free agent signing by GM Howie Roseman. Barkley ranks second in the league with 991 rushing yards (six TDs) and leads the second-ranked rushing attack. The offense is sixth overall.
The defense has improved to second overall and third against the pass, with second-year DT Jalen Carter having a strong season and an infusion of drafted talent in corners, like Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.
The Eagles play a pivotal game at home on Thursday against the Commanders, who are just a half-game behind in the division race. Then, they’ll face a tough two-game road swing at the Rams and Ravens and December matchups with Pittsburgh and Washington before a relatively soft finish at home against the Cowboys and Giants.
It should result in a seventh playoff appearance in the last eight years as either division champs or a wild card, and the Eagles will hope for a postseason showing closer to 2022 and not 2023.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
The Washington Commanders are the only team among this group that did not win their last game with their close 28-27 loss to the Steelers.
However, Washington deserves to be on this list as the NFL’s most surprising team through 10 games, with its 7-3 record after finishing 4-13 in 2023. It is built to stay in the playoff hunt down the stretch.
Their new owner, Josh Harris, hired an excellent head coach — Dan Quinn — who is my Coach of the Year. Drafting Jayden Daniels No. 2 overall was an easy call but still a great decision by new GM Adam Peters.
Daniels has been coached up well by Quinn and OC Kliff Kingsbury. He’s far outplayed No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. Daniels ranks ninth in passer rating (101.7), has thrown only two interceptions, and is the second-leading rusher among QBs with 464 yards and four touchdowns.
The offense is fourth overall (up from 24th in 2023), fourth in rushing, and 11th in passing, which is mostly a credit to Daniels.
The loss of Pro Bowl DT Jonathan Allen (torn pec) hurt the defensive front, but Quinn has directed his defense to a No. 14 ranking. It had the worst defense last year before the arrival of Quinn and the many excellent free-agent additions, like eight-time Pro Bowl linebacker and team-leading tackler Bobby Wagner and second-leading sacker/third-leading tackler LB Frankie Luvu.
As with the Chargers and Cardinals, the Commanders benefit from the fourth-place schedule off their poor 2023 season. They have a big game on Thursday in Philadelphia, with first place on the line, and will host the Eagles in Week 16.
There are also two meetings with the struggling Cowboys and matchups with Tennessee, New Orleans, and Atlanta. It will be surprising if Washington does not at least emerge as a wild-card team.
