NFL Analysis
6/10/24
6 min read
2025 NFL Draft QB Study: Should Carson Beck Be in Pole Position for No. 1 Pick?
The 2025 quarterback isn't as cut-and-dry as the 2024 class was at the top. Caleb Williams went wire-to-wire as the top prospect, whereas this year's crop has room for movement based on what happens this fall and throughout the draft process.
We don't have an elite athlete like Williams, Jayden Daniels, or Drake Maye looming at the forefront of our minds.
One player who created a lot of momentum in his first season as a starter in 2023 is Carson Beck. The Georgia Bulldogs star proved to be a tremendous talent after spending the majority of his previous three seasons as a backup.
But should he be the early favorite to be the top pick in 2025?
>> QB Film Room: Shedeur Sanders Breakdown
Carson Beck 2025 NFL Draft Outlook
The 6-foot-4, 220-pound Beck is the definition of a late bloomer despite coming to Georgia as a high-end four-star recruit out of Jacksonville, Florida.
Stuck behind Stetson Bennett until his fourth year on campus, Beck immediately gave the Bulldogs a different aptitude from the pocket. Bulldogs offensive coordinator Mike Bobo suddenly had a tall, stronger-armed, and consistently accurate option to build his offense around.
The unit immediately benefitted from Beck's high floor and pocket-passing acumen. Despite the program building a generational reputation from its immense running game success, Bobo and Beck combined to redefine the unit's operation. Georgia's passing offense finished 2023 with elite marks in explosiveness, success rate on passing downs, and predicted points added.
Often, Beck lifted a unit that was good at running but was far more efficient and explosive when throwing the ball. They ranked as the country's fourth-most effective passing game and the second-most explosive unit. Beck's ridiculous raw numbers reflected this.
Rising To The Top
Only Bo Nix (77.4 percent), Jacob Zeno (73.6 percent), and Graham Mertz (72.9 percent) finished ahead of Beck's 72.4 percent completion rate. Daniels (11.7 yards per attempt), Jalen Milroe (10), and Kaidon Salter (9.9) were the only quarterbacks to finish with a higher YPA average, which accounts for yards after the catch as well as air yards. He was third in yards, trailing Michael Penix Jr. and Nix.
Just isolating Beck's in-pocket performance makes him even more impressive. He led all Power 5 quarterbacks in completion rate, YPA, on-target rate, EPA per attempt, and points above average per attempt on three, five, and seven-step dropbacks. That's a dominant set of numbers.
It was close to a perfect season for someone seeing his first significant time on the field in 2023.
His consistency was especially remarkable.
In comparing his passing efficiency to 2024 first-rounders, he saw little variation in his performance after his 52nd pass attempt in 2023. Williams, Nix, and Penix were consistently higher than Beck but were also historically good with their output.
Maye and McCarthy were in a similar range, but this metric immediately shows why Beck was trending toward being in the first-round conversation had he declared after 2023.
Can Carson Beck Be The No. 1 Pick in 2025?
Putting the numbers aside, Beck has an intriguing skill set that seems to be coming back into style. Everyone wants a dynamic dual-threat with 4.4 speed, a cannon for an arm, and the precision to make any throw regardless of pressure or launch angle. But that player doesn't seem to exist in the 2025 class and is historically rare.
Teams unable to find their own Williams or Josh Allen have found enough success with guys like Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa that someone like Beck can conceivably be a realistic No. 1 pick. Especially comparing Beck to Shedeur Sanders, who struggles more in a timing-based, rhythmic passing game but is dominant on extended plays, teams may opt for the higher-floor approach.
Carson Beck can quickly scan the field, recognize zone weaknesses, and deliver in rhythm pic.twitter.com/LiUVVS4j6w
— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) June 8, 2024
Beck struck me as more similar to Goff than I expected. Neither creates a ton with their legs but can buy time in the pocket or take off for an occasional scramble. Both rely more on their plus touch and ability to layer the ball between defenders instead of overly strong arms that can push the ball into non-existent windows.
Each also panics under pressure more than top-end peers, which is a concern. Beck is prone to standing still and is either late seeing free defenders, or late in reacting and unable to escape. He doesn't have the tools to overcome loose rushers, and his arm strength doesn't generate enough velocity to be unbalanced and still avoid dangerous throws.
There are times when Beck is slow to react to pressure and caught dead in the water pic.twitter.com/GQFCvguURy
— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) June 8, 2024
Sometimes he has to swallow a sack or throw into a defender's body to avoid the negative play. Goff has always been a more aggressive vertical thrower in comparison, but his issues with turnovers while under pressure have been notable throughout his career. Beck seems to have the same limitation.
Beck played a screen-heavy game with many easy check-downs and quick throws, overinflating his completion rate compared to his actual pinpoint throwing ability. While he throws a catchable ball, he sometimes struggles to rifle in a pass that maximizes the yards gained after the catch.
Growing into his body more and continuing to improve the consistency of his weight transfer could help, but he plays into his strengths enough to believe he won't have trouble bringing his quick-game success to the NFL.
Carson Beck's ball placement is lacking, as he struggles to lead receivers upfield pic.twitter.com/f3rkErGGYS
— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) June 8, 2024
He has better physical traits than Mac Jones, so he should be able to evolve more than the former Alabama star who busted with the New England Patriots. But Jones' struggles aren't something to completely wipe away when projecting Beck. Beck has a better arm, but there's a looming question entering this fall about how much heavy lifting Beck did in 2023.
Jones also orchestrated a super-efficient offense with even better playmakers than Georgia's last year, showing off better touch but more point-guard skills than someone creating a lot on his own.
Georgia's scheme wasn't the sole reason for Beck's success, and injuries to Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey forced Beck to utilize fringe NFL talents. There was little to no drop-off when dealing with those factors.
Can Beck become the top overall pick in 2025? Yes, he can, but players like Milroe, Cameron Ward, and Garrett Nussmeier have better tools and the ability to rise to a level that Beck physically can't reach.
