NFL Analysis

10/3/24

16 min read

2025 NFL Draft: Biggest Risers and Fallers After Season's First Month

By James Foster

NFL Analyst
Maryland Terrapins wide receiver Tai Felton (10) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Villanova Wildcats during the third quarter at SECU Stadium.
Maryland Terrapins wide receiver Tai Felton (10) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Villanova Wildcats during the third quarter at SECU Stadium. Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images.

The 2025 NFL Draft is shaping up to have one of the thinnest first rounds since 2013. With no blue-chip quarterback prospects, a lack of offensive line talent, and slow starts from many of the top defenders, it wouldn’t be a surprise if teams are forced to draft from their second-round grades in the early teens.

This post from Senior Bowl director Jim Nagy confirms many of those thoughts on this year’s first round.

Conversely, the second-to-fourth-round range seems as deep as it’s been in several years, thanks to the COVID redshirt and players unexpectedly returning due to NIL. Teams like Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Chicago with extra Day 2 capital could find value in this talent distribution.

The more college tape we watch, the more extreme the split between Day 1 and Day 2 talent appears. As disappointing as the top of this class has been, more prospects have risen from obscurity to second or third-round consideration this year than in recent memory.

So, with preseason grades in the rearview mirror, these are the biggest NFL Draft risers and fallers through Week 5.

Risers📈 

Maryland logo TAI FELTON, WR, Maryland

Tai Felton is the biggest riser in this WR class and has the traits and production of a second-round pick. Through Week 5, he ranks third in the FBS in receiving yards (637) and first downs (28) and is 95 yards away from eclipsing his total from last year.

As a 6-foot-1 deep threat, Felton has a surprisingly well-rounded skill set that can fit into any role in any offense. He’s quick and strong enough to defeat press, and he has the speed to stack man coverage in a few steps. His ball-tracking and focus make him a weapon at the catch point on slot fades or jump balls in the red zone.

He’s also one of college football's premiere YAC threats, ranking second to Tre Harris in yards after the catch this season. He’s shifty and elusive with excellent contact balance, and once he avoids the first wave of tacklers, he attacks open space and outruns trailing defenders:

In today’s NFL, he can rack up yardage on screens, hitches, and slants in a role similar to Rashee Rice. When Mel Kiper’s Cover 2 ban takes effect, he can thrive on the vertical route tree and generate explosive plays downfield.

His route tree at Maryland is very linear, with hitches, posts, and go routes comprising 47.5 percent of his downfield routes in 2024. When he is asked to run horizontal-breaking routes, he's effective; it’s just a matter of experience and sample size.

On this play, he stems his route inside and uses full-body salesmanship to manipulate the corner’s hips away from his break:

Here, he wins an inside release on a quick slant vs. press-man:

LSU Tigers defensive end Bradyn Swinson (4) sacks South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers (16) during the second quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Scott Kinser-Imagn Images.

BRADYN SWINSON, EDGE, LSU

This was a strong edge class heading into the season, and it’s only gotten deeper through five weeks of college football. The blue-chip talent might be lacking compared to other classes, but it feels like we're giving out a Day 2 grade to an edge rusher once per week.

No one has had a bigger breakout than LSU edge rusher Bradyn Swinson. After transferring from Oregon for the 2023 season, Swinson was an efficient rotational rusher in his first season at LSU.

This year, he became a full-time starter and has emerged as one of the best pass rushers in college football. Through Week 5, he ranks second in the Power 4 with a 19.4 percent pressure rate and has recorded two strip-sacks.

The first box an edge rusher needs to check is having multiple ways of winning; very few pass rushers can threaten NFL tackles with one move. Swinson has the explosiveness and bend to win the corner and the destructive power to steamroll blockers with his bull rush.

As a power rusher, he wins with explosiveness and violent hands. His first step is quick, but he prefers to glide into his rush with gradual, calculated steps. This preserves the threat of an outside speed rush and subdues the blocker, so he isn’t bracing for contact.

Once Swinson closes the space between himself and the tackle, he gears up with an immediate burst and launches into his bull rush. This ability to ramp up to max speed on-demand sets him apart from more “battering-ram” style power rushers that need a long runway to generate power.

Instead of having to telegraph his move from the first step, Swinson can purposefully disguise his intentions or transition to power based on the blocker’s technique. His speed-to-power cutup from just four games looks like many players' reel from an entire season:

His explosiveness also allows him to catapult upfield as a speed rusher, and he’s flexible, redirecting to the quarterback at the top of the arc. His hand usage and technical advancement are mostly unproven, as simply running around the blocker’s outside shoulder has been sufficient so far.

Against South Carolina, however, he used a two-handed swipe to catch and defeat an outside-hand punch (first clip):

Swinson is a fifth-year senior and below-average run defender, but his pass-rushing skillset makes him worth a mid-Day 2 pick.

Iowa Hawkeyes running back Kaleb Johnson (2) runs the ball against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the second half at Huntington Bank Stadium. Matt Krohn-Imagn Images.

KALEB JOHNSON, RB, Iowa

Kaleb Johnson is carrying Iowa’s offense in 2024 and would be on pace for a historic season if Ashton Jeanty didn’t exist.

Johnson’s 685 rushing yards and 8.4 yards per carry both rank second in the FBS. He has benefitted from good run blocking, but he has the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt at 5.57, so he’s generating a lot of production on his own.

At 6-foot, 225 pounds, Johnson has the ideal size profile for an NFL running back. He’s built to carry a full workload and only has 350 career attempts, so there isn’t much tread on the tires.

Nobody would classify him as a speed-back, but he has an adequate top gear to beat pursuit angles and slice through open rushing lanes.

Although Iowa mostly runs wide zone, the patience he’s shown on a limited sample of power and counter suggests he could fit any scheme.

He’s still too bounce-happy and occasionally ignores cutback lanes in favor of running to the sideline.

As a relatively inexperienced player, this will be something to monitor in the second half of the year.

Boston College Eagles defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku (6) reacts to his sack against the Michigan State Spartans during the second half at Alumni Stadium. Eric Canha-Imagn Images.

DONOVAN EZEIRUAKU, Edge, Boston College

We're double-dipping at edge because we have to highlight college football’s sack leader, Donovan Ezeiruaku.

In his fourth year at Boston College, Ezeiruaku has had a consistent impact in both phases and is my 11th-ranked edge rusher with a mid-third-round grade.

He wasn’t on my radar to begin the year, but he popped with a dominant Week 1 performance against Florida State, which, at the time, was good competition. That game wasn’t a flash in the pan. He’s one of the steadiest players in this class.

Ezeiruaku has a two-phased pass-rushing plan: cross-chop and inside counter. It's impossible to watch every pass rusher in college football, but it would be surprising if anyone had a more effective and productive cross-chop than Ezeiruaku.

He has the routine execution that’s only possible with years of practice, along with the bend and suddenness to cross the blocker’s face and wrap around the edge.

His primary change-up is an arm-over/club-swim to the inside shoulder. After he’s won several times with the cross-chop, and the tackle starts to overset and lean his weight upfield, Ezeiruaku will counter inside for a clean win.

This is a standard pass-rushing plan, fairly advanced by college standards, but Ezeiruaku’s ceiling will be determined by his ability to win with power.

At 241 lbs (fourth percentile), he lacks the ideal power profile and almost exclusively relies on attacking the blocker’s edge. His one win with power in 2024 came against Duquesne, and when he tried against better competition, it was easily neutralized:

Washington Huskies cornerback Thaddeus Dixon (9) intercepts a pass intended by Washington State Cougars wide receiver Kyle Williams (2). Steven Bisig-Imagn Images.

THADDEUS DIXON, CB, Washington

In his second season as a starter, Thaddeus Dixon leads FBS defenders with six passes defended. He hasn’t received any national attention, but his Week 3 interception vs. Washington State was interesting.

The best way for a cornerback to get attention is turning and locating the ball at full speed down the sideline, and this rep is a great example of an arguably unteachable skill:

He had a similar rep in Week 1, mirroring the double move, turning his head, and playing the ball:

After watching the rest of his tape, it was clear that Dixon’s athletic traits, coverage instincts, and ball skills were impressive. He plays tight coverage and allows few explosive plays despite playing 58 percent of his snaps in man.

He has the closing burst to immediately eliminate separation when he’s out-leveraged or playing with cushion. He arrives at the catch point with optimal timing and plays the ball, not the receiver:

Thaddeus Dixon - Recovery

Dixon has a good chance of being Washington’s next NFL cornerback, and he should be watched closely as the competition level increases.

Honorable Mentions

  • QB Jalen Milroe, Alabama - seeing the field well & throwing with much better timing this year
  • CB Jermari Harris, Iowa - discount Travis Hunter with elite zone IQ
  • WR Tre Harris, Ole Miss - only runs hitches and go's, but nobody can stop it
  • OT Wyatt Milum, West Virginia - has been good for years but more dominant & better in the run game this year
  • LB Eric Gentry, USC - needs to add weight, but he's a tackle machine
  • OT Cam Williams, Texas - unproven RT with elite traits
  • EDGE LT Overton, Alabama - deserved to make the top five but had to limit myself to two edge rushers

Fallers 📉 

Texas A&M Aggies defensive lineman Nic Scourton (11) looks toward the sideline against the Florida Gators during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images.

NIC SCOURTON, EDGE, Texas A&M

Nic Scourton was the No. 2 player on my preseason board, and based on his Purdue tape, he was the edge rusher with the most complete pass-rushing profile. At 6-foot-4, 280 pounds, Scourton had a versatile moveset, winning with power, cross-chops, and a fluid spin move.

In 2023, he led Big Ten edge rushers with 10 sacks and ranked second in pressure rate. However, after transferring to Texas A&M for his junior season, Scourton hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations. To be clear, his descent isn’t nearly as drastic as some of the other players on this list.

He’s been a solid player, and if the draft was tomorrow, he’d probably be a first-round pick. He also had his best performance of the season in Week 5, with two sacks, including the game-sealing strip sack:

Evaluating the entire season, however, he’s been a much less effective pass rusher, and the top-five grade seems too ambitious in retrospect.

Scourton’s pressure rate has decreased by 6.3 percent, and he hasn’t had a five-pressure game.

He’s clearly playing at a heavier weight, which has limited the efficiency and suddenness of his finesse moves, but the additional mass hasn’t helped his bull rush.

His initial surge is much less explosive this year, and his punch is often tentative, allowing blockers to establish early control and neutralize him with a snatch-trap:

Hopefully, his Week 5 performance vs. Arkansas is a sign of an upward trajectory. Still, based on his body of work so far, Scourton projects as more of a late first-rounder.

LSU Tigers linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. (7) tackles UCLA Bruins wide receiver J. Michael Sturdivant (7) during the second half at Tiger Stadium. Stephen Lew-Imagn Images.

HAROLD PERKINS, LB, LSU

Harold Perkins’ Freshman season in 2022 was electric. He led FBS edge rushers with a 26.5 percent pressure rate and seemed destined to be a lottery pick once he was eligible. At his size (verified 6001/215), however, Perkins’ NFL future is not on the defensive front, and LSU began the process of gradually transitioning him to off-ball linebacker.

In 2023, he played more of a hybrid role, splitting time between overhang linebacker and stand-up edge rusher. He was significantly less impactful off the ball, but the flashes indicated potential if he could develop.

This year, he completed the transition, aligning off the line of scrimmage on 86.2 percent of snaps, but he never looked comfortable at his new position, and his season ended after tearing his ACL in Week 4.

The NFL will not draft Perkins to play edge rusher. Even at off-ball linebacker, he’s a major outlier, with height and weight in the 13th and second percentile, respectively. At this point, he hasn’t produced NFL-caliber linebacker tape, aside from the occasional splash play.

He’s slow to diagnose run concepts, struggles to free himself from blocks, and doesn’t look comfortable tackling from depth. He has the talent of a first-round pick, but the film of a Day 3 project, and for that reason, it wouldn't be shocking if he declared for the draft this year.

Miami Hurricanes wide receiver Samuel Brown (11) reacts after running with the football against the Virginia Tech Hokies during the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Sam Navarro-Imagn Images.

SAM BROWN, WR, Miami

This summer, if you told said that by Week 6, Cam Ward would have the second-highest Heisman odds and lead FBS quarterbacks in passing touchdowns (18) and total yards (1928), it would've been assumed that Samuel Brown had established himself as a top 50 pick.

However, the highly-coveted Houston transfer, who was 47th on Dane Brugler’s preseason big board, has gotten off to a slow start.

Brown is currently Miami’s sixth-leading receiver, with 17 receptions and 203 yards through five games, as most of Ward’s passing production has gone through Xavier Restrepo and Isaiah Horton. He hasn’t shown any noticeable development as a route runner, his YAC ability seems less potent, and areas of his game viewed as minor concerns this summer have ballooned into major limitations.

For my preseason evaluation I watched Brown’s 2023 targets in chronological order, and I was initially impressed by his coordination and ability to make acrobatic catches.

As the season progressed, there was a significant drop-off in physicality at the catch point, a trend that has continued in 2024. At 6017, his inability to establish catch space and box defenders out is disappointing.

He also has three drops on just 27 targets this year.

More concerning is his lack of precision, burst, and power as a route runner. In Week 4, he struggled to separate from press-man against South Florida’s corners, none of whom are on the radar as potential draft prospects.

Brown is playing himself out of the Day 2 range, but there’s still time to reverse path, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to do so with Cam Ward under center.

Notre Dame cornerback Benjamin Morrison (20) walks with his team during warm-ups before a NCAA college football game between Notre Dame and Northern Illinois at Notre Dame Stadium.

BENJAMIN MORRISON, CB, Notre Dame

Benjamin Morrison is still a first-round prospect, but he hasn’t had a complete performance against formidable competition since Week 1. He played lights out against Miami (OH) in Week 4, but the Northern Illinois, Purdue, and Louisville tapes were not first round-quality.

His movement skills might have been overestimated in summer scouting because, even against mid-level college competition, he struggles to stick with receivers in man coverage.

He gave up a handful of plays in the Louisville game, but his statline could have been worse. He was saved by drops on two easy completions, one of which resulted in an interception:

He also got outrun by a Northern Illinois receiver on a drag route:

At times, his aggressive play style puts him in compromising situations he can’t recover from.

While his tackling was not terrible in 2023, it was inconsistent, and he doesn’t seem to have fixed that issue, either.

Honorable Mentions

  • TE Oscar Delp, Georgia - good blocking but hasn't been used as a receiver
  • OL Emery Jones, LSU - hasn't improved hand placement/balance issues
  • EDGE RJ Oben, Notre Dame - completely ineffective as a pass rusher
  • HB Ollie Gordon II, Oklahoma State - 3.6 YPC but the blocking hasn't been good
  • EDGE Patrick Payton, Florida State - no development as a pass rusher & major tackling issues
  • CB Mansoor Delane, Virginia Tech - stacking good games to recover from nightmare Week 1 vs. Vanderbilt
Tags: 2025 NFL Draft, NFL Draft

James Foster

NFL Analyst

James Foster is an NFL writer who creates film-based analysis of NFL players and teams. He previously worked for A to Z Sports.

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