Betting
12/20/24
7 min read
2024 NFL Award Predictions: Who Will Win The Coach Of The Year Award?
The NFL’s Coach of the Year award is heating up with just three weeks left to go in the season. This has traditionally been an award that goes to a coach whose team has outperformed expectations. Rarely does it go to the actual best coach in the NFL that season, but the coach who has overcome the most that particular season.
So, who is the favorite to win the award? And which coaches should we keep an eye on during the final few weeks of the season? Here are all of the top candidates for the 2024 Coach of the Year Award and our pick at the end:
2024 NFL Coach of the Year Candidates
The Favorite: Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings 
Odds: -190
It’s hard not to be impressed by the job Kevin O’Connell has done this season with the Minnesota Vikings. Not only did he lose his star quarterback (Kirk Cousins) in free agency, but they also lost J.J. McCarthy to a long-term knee injury in the preseason.
Luckily, they added a veteran to the roster, Sam Darnold, to fill in for him this season.
While many expected Darnold to play decent in O’Connell’s offense, no one expected the Vikings to be 12-2 after 15 weeks. Minnesota’s projected win total was 6.5 on most sportsbooks going into the year, and it had the worst odds of winning the NFC North. Instead, the Vikings just need to win their final three games to lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
That could be a tall task, considering they have games against the Seahawks, Packers, and Lions left on their schedule. But another 13-win season is certainly possible for O’Connell as he’s managed to have one of the league’s best-coached teams yet again. The Vikings are sixth in DVOA and appear to have a real chance of making a Super Bowl run this year.
Considering he is doing it with a former first-round bust at quarterback and not Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, etc, it makes it all the more impressive. It shouldn't be a surprise that O'Connell is the favorite to win the award this year.
Runner Up: Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions
Odds: +500
It’s not too often that a coach who led a team to the Championship Game the previous season would end up being near the top of the COY odds the following year.
However, that’s the case for Dan Campbell, who has his Detroit Lions atop of the NFC. Now, that wasn’t totally unexpected, as the Lions were among the Super Bowl favorites this year. But how they’ve gotten there has been incredibly impressive.
The Lions lost Aidan Hutchinson early in the season due to a leg injury, and he’ll miss the remainder of the year. An injury of that caliber would crush most defenses, but Hutchinson wasn’t the only defender to go down.
Detroit has had 22 players on the injured reserve list this season, 16 of whom have been on defense. Injuries have decimated its defensive line, as eight players have already been lost for the season. And yet, the Lions keep finding ways to win.
It’s going to get more difficult for the Lions with David Montgomery (PCL injury) set to miss the remainder of the season. Still, if the Lions can hold onto the No. 1 seed in the NFC despite all of the injuries, Campbell should get a lot of consideration for the award.
Contender: Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders
Odds: +1000
The Washington Commanders held the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and in a division with the Eagles and Cowboys, it sure felt like it would be several years before things turned around. But Jayden Daniels's play and Dan Quinn's leadership have turned the Commanders into a playoff team.
Washington already has nine wins, and it will be favored in each of its final two games. The Commanders did not win double-digit games in a season in 2012, the year Robert Griffin III took the league by storm.
Quinn has done an excellent job of turning the defense around after the unit ranked last in points and yards allowed per game in 2023. In fact, it's a top-12 defense in yards allowed this season, as the unit has really improved in the second half of the year.
Considering how low expectations were coming into the season, the Commanders winning 10+ games and making the postseason would be pretty shocking. They are still technically in the hunt to win the NFC East, and a victory against the Eagles in Week 16 would go a long way in helping Quinn’s case.
Contender: Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds: +1500
The Pittsburgh Steelers' win total was 8.5 coming into the 2024 season, but no one actually thought Mike Tomlin would go under .500, right?
The more impressive feat is that they could win the AFC North on Saturday with a win against the Ravens. They could clinch the division with two games left in the season, which would be highly impressive, considering their odds to do so were +650 entering the year.
The Steelers are 10-4 and have already clinched a spot in the playoffs. They have a difficult remaining schedule, but 12+ wins are a possibility. The Steelers lost Russell Wilson for the first six games of the season, and yet, they managed to go 4-2 with Justin Fields under center.
Mike Tomlin has never won a Coach of the Year award, and voters could give him one now, especially if the Steelers end up as the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the AFC. With two primetime games coming up (Ravens, Chiefs), wins in those games could go a long way in helping him secure the award.
Sleeper: Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: +3500
The Kansas City Chiefs have been far from dominant this season, but maybe that only boosts the case for Andy Reid. They’ve managed to win every close game and are 13-1. If the Chiefs end up with 15 or more wins, considering their schedule and all of the injuries they’ve had on the offense, Reid surely deserves some credit.
Reid has only won Coach of the Year once in his career, and that was all the way back in 2002. But you can make a case that this is the best coaching job of his career, as his roster is nowhere near as talented as it was in previous seasons. It's taken a lot of luck, but the Chiefs have executed late-game situations better than any team in the league by a wide margin.
Kansas City had a win total of 11.5 going into the 2024 season on most sportsbooks, and it has already cruised past that number. And after clinching another AFC West title, maybe it’s time to give the best coach in the league another honor.
2024 NFL Coach of the Year Winner
Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders
Odds: +1000
The Coach of the Year award can be narrative-based, which means things can swing widely in a few weeks. That was the case last season when Kevin Stefanski won the award after beating the Jets and Texans in the final two weeks of the year with Joe Flacco under center.
And while there is certainly a strong list of candidates this year, the best bet on the board is Dan Quinn of the Washington Commanders. Washington should win at least two of its final three games, giving them 11 wins on the season. And with a preseason win total of 6.5 and after winning just four games all of 2023, a seven-game improvement would be near the top of the NFL.
Quinn has turned the Commanders into a viable playoff contender and a team that is must-see TV every single week. For a franchise that hasn't had many bright moments during the last two decades, having this type of season will go a long way in restoring its reputation around the league. Considering the odds (10:1), Quinn is the best bet on the board.
